Wednesday Trade Plan | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 08/02/16

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“Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words;
they become actions.  Watch your actions;
they become habits.  Watch your habits;
they become your character.  Watch your
character; it becomes your destiny. 
-Frank Outlaw

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:

We
have great trends
and big ranges
to work with tomorrow; Crude Oil is bearish while the S&P, Gold and Euro
are all bullish heading into Wednesday’s
session.

Crude
Oil is bearish and bouncing off the measured-move
target this evening and we assume that sellers will be looking for
opportunities to send price back to the lows tomorrow.  Just as expected, buyers got a short-term
opportunity to start the session this morning before the sellers took back
control and ran price down to new monthly lows. 
As price bounces off the lows we know that this is a bear-market and we
will focus on selling back to the lows until the buyers can prove they have
control by holding a pullback.  Just like
earlier today, the buyers can hold a pullback and make a run back to the
‘battle zone’ up at $40 but we assume that is where the majority of long-term
sellers will be waiting around the high of the pending bear channel
tomorrow.  We have news at 10:30am EST
tomorrow which is the only real variable that we need to watch for.

E-mini
S&P is bullish after the buyers successfully held their pullback
but the overall trend is bearish and they need to hold through the ‘battle
zone’ if they want any chance to get back to the highs.  The buyers have short-term control with a
bullish wedge this evening which tells them to look for pullbacks to support
with a target up at the battle zone overhead. 
Sellers need to be patient right now because the buyers have control,
waiting for an opportunity to get a new lower-low and hold a pullback of their
own with a target back at the low tomorrow. 
Don’t forget about the Crude Oil Inventory Report tomorrow @ 10:30am EST
because that may cause some un-expected volatility as well.

Gold
is bullish and trying to finish the move up to the wedge
and measured-move targets overhead.  The
most important clue this evening is that the buyers failed to reach their
targets and with the most recent pullback failing to re-test the highs we can
assume that buyers are no longer interested in buying this high and they will
be waiting for an opportunity to buy at a lower price tomorrow.  Buyers will be looking for a trap below 68.1
or a breakout-pullback above the falling resistance trend-line with target up
at the high and then up to the completion of the wedge.  Sellers have a short-term target back at the
‘battle zone’ at 64.0 but we can assume that sellers will be anxious to buy
more if they can get this deep pullback. 
It won’t be until we can get (and stay) below the 61.5 before the
sellers can really get some open space to sell back to the lows.

Euro
is bullish and trying to complete a wedge
target this evening but it appears the majority of the buyers are taking profit
at the measured-move and waiting for a pullback so they can buy more on the way
higher tomorrow.  There are two
potential wedges on the chart giving us two different targets overhead but the
measured-move was completed and tells the buyers to look for seller-failure
after a pullback or a successful breakout-pullback above the measured-move
tomorrow.  Sellers need to be careful
right now because there isnt much open space to the downside with a rising
support trend-line, a reversal line and the battle zone all waiting for buyers
to get in at a lower price with a target back to the highs.  Sellers won’t have much room to sell until we
can get (and stay) below the swing at (C) down around 12100.