US Market Up-Date

***Economic Data***

– (BR) Brazil Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.0%e
– (BR) Brazil Jan Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 1.7T v 1.7T prior; Private Banks Lending: 993.0B v 987B prior
– (US) Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.16 v 0.09e
– (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 391K v 405Ke; Continuing Claims: 3.790M v 3.880Me
– (US) Jan Durable Goods Orders: 2.7% v 2.8%e; Durables Ex Transportation: -3.6% v +0.5%e
– (BR) Brazil Jan Caged Formal Job Creation: 152K v 127.0Ke
– (MX) Mexico Jan Preliminary Trade Balance: +$62M v -$295Me
– (US) Jan New Home Sales: 284K v 305Ke
– (US) Dec House Price Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e ; Q/Q: -0.8% v -0.6%e
– (US) EIA Weekly Natural gas Inventories: – 81 bcf v -80 to -85 bcf expected range
– (US) DOE Weekly Energy Inventories: Crude: +820K v +1Me; Gasoline: -2.8M v +500Ke; Distillate: -1.33M v -1Me; Utilization: 79.4% v 81.6%e

– The slide in US markets seen over the last two sessions seems to have stabilized this morning, with major indices more or less flat on the day. Events in Libya continue to unfold, with Gaddafi holed up in Tripoli and much of the rest of the country in the hands of anti-government protestors. April WTI crude popped above $100 during the European session and traded as high as $103.41, before dropping back below $100 again by mid morning as the Saudis discuss sending more oil to Western Europe. Brent crude is trading above $113. In the US, initial and continuing jobless claims surprised to the downside, with initial claims firmly below the 400K handle. The headline Jan durables data was right in line with expectations, although the ex transport figure was a big miss. Note that the durables figures will most likely be revised higher. January new home sales were predictably weak.

– General Motors Q4 report closed out the automaker’s first profitable year since 2004, compliments of the backing of the United States taxpayer. Fourth-quarter revenue topped expectations, although profits were impacted by charges incurred to buy back warrants from the Treasury. Shares of GM are down 3%, and are a dollar below the level of the IPO from last November. Several more retail names reported results. Department store firms Target and Kohls were both right in line with the Street in their fourth quarters. Target’s guidance for Q1 and the full year was sub par, however. Kohl’s launched its first quarterly dividend in the company’s history. Both KSS and TGT are up more than 2%. Oil services firm Transocean’s Q4 results were a little soft, and shares of RIG are down 2%.

– The euro appeared to struggle during most of the New York session after it failed to sustain moves above the 1.38 handle (dealers blamed M&A flows related to Sanofi’s acquisition of Genzyme). Continued hawkish ECB comments on interest rates provided the momentum need to breech the 1.38 after Weber noted that rates can only go one way. Recent dollar softness prompted some dealers to note that Russia might try to slow the trend as USD/RUB threatened break 29.00. USD/CHF moved off its recent all-time lows at 0.9237 while USD/CAD hit fresh three-year lows at 0.9812.

***Looking Ahead***

– 11:00 (US) DOE Weekly Energy Inventories: : Crude: +1Me; Gasoline: +500Ke; Distillate: -1Me; Utilization: 81.6%e
– 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4-6B in Notes/Bonds
– 12:00 (FR) France Jan Net Change Jobseekers: No est v 27.1K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.725M prior
– 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
– 13:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Central Gov’t Biudget (BRL): 14.2Be v 14.4B prior
– 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 36.8% prior
– 16:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.5% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: 19.0%e v 21.4% prior
– 18:00 (HU) EU Defense Ministers, NATO Sec-Gen meet in Budapest
– 19:00 (IR) Ireland Holds National Elections

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