Trading a Runaway | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 03/16/16

“Lots of people know what to do, but few people actually do what they know. Knowing is not enough…you must take action!”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:

Crude Oil is bullish this evening but trading at the highs of the channel and directly into a measured-move which tells us to wait for a correction back to support levels before we look to buy more tomorrow.  We have a channel, measured-move, double-up, and rollover to work with tonight.  The channel has an overshoot at the highs which tells us buying here is too expensive, we want to wait for the overshoot on the opposite side of the channel for the most reliable trades tomorrow.  The strength of this move tells us to expect a possible double-overshoot which then turns into an aggressive selling opportunity back at the highs.  the measured-move has been completed so we know this price is too expensive to buy, but it also doesn’t appear to be reacting as strong resistance which tells us to look for the triple measured-move for a runaway target tomorrow.  The double-up makes an excellent target for buyers, and we will be watching the volume on the 05-16 contract for rollover starting tomorrow.

E-mini S&P is bullish with a rising wedge this evening which tells us to expect a pullback before the buyers re-enter this market with a target back to today’s high.  We have a channel, rising wedge, measured-move and double-up to work with tomorrow.  The channel has a double-overshoot combined with a measured-move, which is an easy short-term opportunity for the sellers going back to the lows of the channel, but the rising wedge is a HUGE bullish clue that this pullback may not last long before the bulls come back into this market and put a bullseye on the finishing-point of the wedge which also uses the double-up as well.

Gold is bullish after the FOMC announcement with a spike & channel and a triple measured-move this evening which tells us to look for buying opportunities after a 2-legged correction off the highs.  We have a spike & channel, triple measured-move, and previous head & shoulders waiting as a runaway target tomorrow.  The spike & channel tells us this market is strong, but well over-bought this evening and wise buyers will be waiting for a deep correction back to support levels before trying to buy more tomorrow.  The triple measured-move has a double-top which is almost always a reliable reversal opportunity but you can see the buyers didn’t let it go very far which gives us a BIG bullish clue this evening.  With such bullish information on the chart we assume the buyers will try to keep this price pushing, and we look left and see an old head & shoulders waiting to be re-tested for a runaway target overhead.

Euro is bullish with a spike & channel into a measured-move with a double-top that appears to have been sold which tells us to look for a correction back to support levels for the next reliable opportunity.  We have a spike & channel, measured-move, reversal-line, and round number to work with this evening.  The spike & channel tells us to look for buying opportunities after a 2-legged-correction back to support levels below.  The measured-move can be drawn a few different ways and has a double-top that looks to have been sold which tells us to look for a correction back to support before a potential move to a triple measured-move higher.  The reversal line at 2246 is a previous high, and the ’round number’ will both make for easy support areas for buyers tomorrow as well.