Trade The News on Gold and Crude Oil Futures Using Simple Entry and Exit Rules

820am EST

We begin our day the same way every morning, with the news events today

We see we have lots of important news today, so set your alarm and make sure we are flat in the market when the news is released, and then we’ll use the info we receive to make educated decisions.

830am est

– The dollar index will be an important part of our day when we watch as these important news events send the dollar rising and falling

– We see the dollar is trading the LOD from yesterday, which makes this an inside day.

o Inside days are assumed to be more challenging

– We also see that we have broken the bullish price channel, and now trading sideways

o Im looking for the dollar first to get sucked back up into the price channel, so expect the dollar to gravitate to the upside

 Dollar rising = everything falling

 Be on the look out for a nice short trade off the highs on gold, crude and Russell today with the potential of the dollar rising.

o If we break below the PLOD @ 80.790 we can expect the sellers to be in control now, so we need to look for the dollar to continue dropping

 If we break the PLOD, expect the gold and crude, and Russell to rise

• We’re at the highs on the crude, gold and Russell, so if the dollar drops, look to buy a pullback on the markets we trade

• In other words, don’t try to force the highs.

– To finish up the dollar we mark the highs and the lows of the recent sideways trading range and we use the PRICE ALERT indicator to tell us when the market is moving outside of this range

o This will tell us when to look for the best patterns on the markets we TRADE.

845am est

– We took a higher risk first trade of the morning off the gold dropping, shorted the highs on crude oil, but quickly got out of the trade early for a small loss when momentum curled against me.

– Now we see the candlestick patterns on the 21r and 13r charts give us clues that these highs are being propped up.

– Something is keeping the sellers from taking the price back down
– Is it the dollar dropping?
– Is it the crude oil inventories at 1030am today?
– We don’t really know, we look for clues, and use those clues to make educated decisions.

855am est

– The markets are pretty slow on the first day of December
– Dollar still resting on the PLOD
– Crude oil still trying to find direction ahead of the 1030 news

– The gold has broken above the wedge and the price channel, and we should look for a wave entry long using the 55 range chart.

o Wait for momentum to curl up
o Look for the entry pattern on a faster timeframe
o Also look for BIG MONEY BUYERS on the tape to confirm your entry with increasing speed.

945am est

– I took another loss on the gold futures when we saw the wave pattern on the 55 range chart

– The problem was was easy to avoid, simple wait for the momentum indicator to confirm on all three times frames

o Make sure the rest of your rules line up even when the powerful 55 range chart shows a trigger.

2 Ways to take losses:

– I made the wrong trading decision
– The market is not working the way it should (something’s different)

1030am est

– Crude oil news comes out with higher than expected inventories
– How does this apply to the dollar?

o Higher inventories

 Less demand? Tough to tell, so look at the previous news events
 ISM Manufacturing was rising today

– We also can hear chatter about the White House keeping the BAN on offshore drilling through 2017

– It appears the market on crude oil is trying to ‘digest’ this news release and the news from the White House is causing people to lose confidence on overall direction

– Crude oil going sideways, we need to wait for something to happen so we can see who has control.

What did I learn today:

– I made a tough day in the markets even harder by making poor decision
– Why was the day so tough

o Crude oil news @ 1030am
o Dollar tight and narrow trading
o Slow and sluggish price action

 Red pace of tape
 Very small narrow moves