August 12, 2011

Trade the News Market Internals Update at 12:00ET

Dow +74 S&P +3 NASDAQ +7.4

***Economic Data***

– (IC) Iceland July Unemployment Rate: 6.6% v 6.7% prior
– (PD) Poland July CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.3%e
– (PD) Poland July M3Money Supply M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e
– (US) July Advance Retail Sales: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.3% v 0.2%e
– (US) Aug Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 54.9 v 62.0e
– (US) Jun Business Inventories: 0.3% v 0.5%e

– Trading has been choppy this morning as European markets simmer down and investors dissect fresh US economic data. With short sale bans in place on European exchanges, shares of the shell shocked French banks have been flat to up, helping to defuse the market chaos from this week. The extreme weakness in the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey reflects Congress’s dim performance on the budget, continuing trouble in the economy and the S&P downgrade. Note that this was the lowest reading in the series since 1980, and is only slightly lower than the shocking November 2008 survey. Traders are choosing to focus instead on the July advance retail sales numbers, which indicate that the consumer continues to be somewhat resilient. Both spot gold and the VIX are around their lows for the week at $1,725 and 36, respectively, reflecting the decline in overall volatility after four crazy days. Treasury markets continue to whipsaw but buyers have returned at the longer end, picking through the ruble of yesterday’s 30-year auction results. The benchmark 10-year is up nearly a full point again suppressing its yield back below 2.25%.

– Nvidia gained more than 10% in the pre-market after delivering a very strong earnings performance in Q2 and offering a strong revenue outlook for Q3. Executives said both the phone and enterprise businesses would be stronger in the second half of the year. Retail names JC Penny and Nordstrom both beat earnings expectations in their Q2 reports. JCP is in the red this morning after warning that margins declined y/y in the quarter and offering Q3 profit guidance that was weaker than expected. JWN is up 6% but off its highs thanks to solid FY11 guidance and expectations for better margins in the year. Cult stock Molycorp, the rare earth miner, achieved very strong Q2 profits and said the company’s key Project Phoenix is still on time and on budget.

– EUR/USD is coming off of session highs of 1.4290 where decent offers appeared in the pair. USD/JPY still marginally above its all-time lows set earlier in the month but still below the 77 handle by the mid-NY morning.

***Looking Ahead***

– (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
– 11:30 (UK) UK Q2 Construction Output Q/Q Restatement (prior was 2.3%)
– 12:00 (IC) Iceland July International Reserves (ISK): No est v 827.8B prior
– 13:00 (IT) Italian Cabinet meeting
– 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 9.6%e v 9.7% prior
– 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 12.3% prior
– 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Trade Balance: $407.0Me v $12.7M prior

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