June 29, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Token Print & Double-Top all we needed for great profit today
1. To help my member learn and earn along with me when they begin.
2. To PROVE to our guests that this method works.
We begin with 3 phases of crude oil:
§ Before the News: 745-1000 (ok to trade)
§ During the News: 1000-1035 (very careful)
§ After the News: 1035-1230pm EST (wait for the market reaction)
We review the dollar this morning and we see the big move down headed towards support at 74.870
We have more room to drop, so expect the USD to fall more, and gives up buying opportunities on the markets we trade.
When the USD rests on support we then will look for a short opportunity with a price reversal off the highs on the markets we trade.
Remember how we use this dollar:
– Dollar falls = buying at support, buying pullbacks
– Dollar Rises = selling at resistance, selling retracements
– Dollar Sideways = buying the lows, selling the highs, avoiding the middles and avoiding the fake-out breakouts.
Most important information RIGHT NOW from the dollar is to expect more falling prices and therefore look for buying opportunities.
850am est
We get news that sends the markets chopping back and forth and we remind ourselves that as day traders we trade the REACTION to the news, so lets focus on being prepared.
Crude Oil futures are rising into resistance, we are looking to sell this resistance.
89Range chart shows the following:
– Bear price channel
– Sideways range
– Price Wedge
– BMT is above us
– Major Resistance overhead
Now open the 34range chart and lets get specific with our plan:
– Strong bull price channel, we are above the highs and overbought
– Price wedge, at the highs
– PHOD is below us, OUTSIDE DAY
– BMT and OPEN are below us, price magnets
If price rises:
– Im selling at resistance first, and then with new higher highs I will consider buying pullbacks
– I do not buy at the highs
– Im selling the HOD 94.30, selling 94.59
– Avoid the 95.00 big round number
– Selling major resistance at 95.70
– We will find more levels as the day develops.
If price falls:
– Im buying at support first, and then selling retracements with new lower lows
– I do not sell at the lows
– Buying support levels at PHOD 93.40
– Selling below the PHOD
– Avoid the BRN 93.00
– Buying 92.68
– Avoid 92.00 big round number
– Buying the support highs of the channel 93.50 and buying the lows of the channel around 92.20 area.
–
930am est
Crude oil has dropped off the highs (token print) and now below the PHOD we are in the middle of the price channel.
Our assumptions were correct with the token print at the highs. We then predicted a big drop and it certainly did.
We now have 3 wining trades today, so lets re-plan our attack.
We’re now an inside day, very big clue!!!
Inside day says ….buy the lows, sell the highs, avoid the middle, and avoid the fake-out breakout.
Inside day = trade inside the current range.
If price falls:
– Buying support at 92.68
– Buying the lows of the channel 92.40 thru 92.50
– Buying above BRN 92.00, avoid the 92.00
– Avoid the BMT 91.88
– Buying 91.36
– As price drops we may get new levels of support to use as buying opportunities.
If price rises:
– Im selling at resistance levels first
– Buy a pullback above 93.07
– Avoid the BRN 93.00
– Selling 93.41, 93.51, 93.82, 94.24
– Avoid the 94.00 BRN
– Sell 94.30 HOD and high of the wedge.
955am est
The personality on crude oil changes quickly when it gets ready for the 1030am news.
We see sloppy, indecisive price action around the PHOD, searching for clues
We see the OPEN hold (not enough sellers) and then we saw the buyers fail to make new highs above the PHOD.
This gave me concern that we’ve lost our confidence in DIRECTION (who has control over price)
Now we get higher risk after 10am est with 1030am crude oil inventories.
We need to remember that after 10am price action gets sloppy, and after 1015am we cannot take a trade until we see the price action react to the news at 1035am
1005am est
Pending Home sales come out higher than expected, the markets are very slow and sloppy.
Crude Oil is waiting for 1030am news, and you can assume we know why this market is sloppy:
– OPEC and IEA back and forth
– Crude Inventories at 1030am
– Expecting lower inventories because price dropped below 100 and then we assume demand for crude will now rise since its affordable.
Lets plan ahead of the news…
If price rises:
– Sell highs of the sideways range 94.30
– Buying pullbacks above resistance (when resistance becomes support) on the way up to test the highs.
– Avoid the BMT 95.33 and the BMT makes an excellent profit target
– Sell the range highs at 95.70
– Buying pullbacks above 94.30 but look to sell 94.30 first.
1100am est
We see a significant change in personality after the 1030am news on crude oil.
Crude inventories came out lower than expected, along with lower demand we though the sellers should take this price lower.
I began selling the highs of the range, using the news as my guide.
Then we broke (very quickly) through the HOD and then I bought a pullback.
After the pullback failed we decided to sit on hands b/c the personality was not making easy for us today.
Remember sometimes that BEST TRADE is losing trade for reason OUTSIDE of our control.
There’s a big difference between…
– Losing trade b/c of bad decision
– Losing trade b/c of the market’s sloppy personality
