September 29, 2014

Stay Patient on Tuesday | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 09/29/14


“Successful and unsuccessful people do not vary greatly in their
abilities. They vary in their desires to reach their potential.”

–John
Maxwell
Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:
·       Markets are telling us to ‘stay
patient’ for the best trading opportunities on the last day of September
·       Markets are all bearish, most of them
over-sold
·       Crude Oil ready
to sell at the highs of the range after moving higher on Monday
·       Gold trade
triggered last Thursday and still waiting for new lower-lows or a re-test of
the highs.  Currently sitting in the
middle of the range
·       Mini-Russell trades
sideways in oversold territory, staying patient to sell the highs of the range
·       ECB Announcement is Thursday
·       Non-Farm Payroll report is Friday
·       Join our Live Trade Room as a GUEST here

Gold:

·       Fundamental: 
Gold prices have been trading sideways just above the critical $1200/oz
level which is only a few points away. 
We know that the ‘breakeven point’ for the mining industry is that $1200
level so there will be plenty of buyers entering there to protect that
level.  Demonstrations in Hong Kong, the un-easy
situation in the Ukraine, and of course the ongoing soap opera in the Middle
East continue to give buyers are reason to get involved, but we can clearly see
the violence around the world has done very little to make these price RISE… as
of today we are still very bearish until the conditions change.
·       Technical
Gold tested
the highs of the range last Friday and gave us easy selling opportunities off
the highs going into the end of the month. 
That move off the highs put us in the middle of the range, which tells
us to stay patient if you are looking for new selling opportunities.  If you missed the short at the highs, your
next option for selling opportunities will be back up at the highs, or a new sell-zone
after a new lower-low.

Crude Oil:
·       Fundamental: 
The slowing global economy has been weighing on the price of Crude Oil Futures
over the last 3 weeks because traders believe it will drop the demand of this
commodity, but as we go into the end of the month there is increasing concerns
over China, the Middle East, and basically everywhere EXCEPT the US economy
which appears to continue pushing forward in the recovery process.  We will remain bearish fundamentally on Crude
Oil until something changes.
·       Technical
Crude Oil traded
lower over the last 3 weeks, but last week we started consolidating around the
$93.00 level.  We have a well-defined trading-range
from $95.00 – $89.00 and we are looking for selling opportunities at the highs
of this range with profit-targets down at the lows.  We have given the bearish long-term-trend the
benefit of the doubt and will continue to look for selling opportunities until
something changes, such as new higher-highs above the 94.80 on Tuesday.

Mini-Russell:
·       FundamentalThe global economy is struggling as we go into the end of the
3rd quarter.  The US seems to
be ok, but Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are all dealing with substantial
financial concerns.  China has the
biggest hurdle right now, and if the economy continues to struggle in China
that will continue to weigh on the small-cap Mini-Russell Stock Index
Futures.  We continue to stay bearish on
the Mini-Russell until the charts tell us different.

·       Technical
The Mini-Russell
had a great run over the last 3 weeks, pushing to new lows before consolidating
just above the $1100 big-round-number. 
We are considered ‘oversold’ on our anchor charts, which tells us to
stay patient on Tuesday/Wednesday and look for the best selling opportunities up
around $1130.00 area on the chart.
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