Sideways Ranges make easy day trading targets for this week

Good morning everyone and welcome to a short week of trading the markets we love. Nothing of any real trading value happened over the weekend, so we can look forward to this week. We don’t have any major news today scheduled, just a minor report at 830am on the Fed’s National Activity Index which may have people watching, but its not expected to have much weight in the markets we trade today. The big news this week will be the Holiday Weekend coming next weekend, Memorial Day which is pretty big here in the US. This wont impact us today, but come Thursday/Friday the volume will surely reflect a lighter trade into the long weekend. Looking that the charts today you can see the Dollar index has recently broken new highs above the recent sideways trading range. When we see the dollar make new highs like this we wonder about the future direction, and how that will impact the market we trade most. If the dollar keeps rising we will be looking to selling retracements with new lows on Gold and Crude Oil, Russell and Euro futures today. If the Dollar tumbles back down into the range it just broke out of, this is a clear sign of failure, and we will treat that as an ‘inside day’ sign from the dollar which will result in us trading the markets a little differently today and early this week. If the dollar retreats back into the range we then trade this as ‘range-bound’ which means we look to ignore the fake-out breakouts and sell the highs, buy the lows, avoid the middle. Time will tell how the dollar reacts, I will be watching the speed, size, and patterns we see on the DX 06-11 this morning. Both crude oil and gold look very familiar don’t they? 1500 on GC 06-11 and 100.00 on CL 07-11. This is another sign of things to come…sideways ranges. If the markets can’t decide on long term direction we appear to want to chop around these big round numbers for a while. We love sideways ranges so we can easily put together a plan of attack to trade these. We will review our specific plan of attack trading these futures markets together in our live trade room this morning.

Dollar Index 89Range ChartGold 89 Range ChartCrude Oil 89Range Chart

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    Blogger - May 23, 2011 Reply

    Lets prep for the dollar index today
    DX 06-11 89-Range chart shows us the sideways range has been broken to the upside.
    This tells me two things:
    1. The dollar will keep rising
    2. The dollar will reverse/fail and drop back into the range it just broke.
    With those two things I can now plan my trading for the rest of the day.
    If the dollar keeps trending (see the 13range) then we want to keep selling new lows and selling at resistance with a 2step reversal or a wave short (selling retracements)
    IF the dollar fails and comes back down into the range it just recently broke, now we know this is sign of an INSIDE trading day.
    Inside days tell us the market has accepted the current range of prices, making the highs and lows of that range our entry locations.
    Inside day = trade inside the range (sell the highs and buy the lows)
    Outside day = look for breakouts of the range (sell retracements and buy pullbacks)
    Our specific plan of attack for the Dollar:
    – If we make new higher highs on the Dollar im selling new lower lows on the crude/gold/Russell/euro/etc
    – If the dollar falls back down, im now going to trade inside the range on crude oil and gold, sell the highs and buy the lows. As price drops down on the DX I will be looking for support levels to be a buyer.

    Blogger - May 23, 2011 Reply

    Our plan of attack on crude oil:
    – Buying pullbacks with new higher highs as the dollar drops
    – Selling retracements with new lower lows as the dollar rises
    – Buy the lows and sell the highs of the bear channel on 34range chart
    – Use the price channel and the wedge as support and resistance
    – Buy the lows of the channel/wedge/range and sell the highs
    – BMT is above us, along with the PHOD and the OPEN, which will all attract price UP
    – If the dollar drops this market wants to JUMP
    – If the dollar stays sideways this market may stick to big round numbers, trend lines, and middle of ranges.

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