July 13, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Record-breaking Fast Track Profit thanks to Crude Oil Inventories
This means we need to pay close attention to the 3-phases of crude oil inventories.
· Phase 1 = before news 800-1015
· Phase 2 = during news 1015-1035
· Phase 3 = post-news 1035-1230
We need to be aware that during the 2nd phase price action gets very sloppy and can easily take back your hard earn profit.
We also know that after phase 2 ends, and we start phase 3 that we need to be patient and really try and wait to trade with the market reaction, not what WE THINK should happen.
We have 830am news, then we watch for 10am Ben Bernanke speaking, and then 1030am crude oil news.
Goal today is get in early before 10am, be selective with trades we take, and look for volume clues around 10am.
We may slow down at 10am and then never get a chance to trade until after 1035am.
We will have to wait and see.
825am est
We wait for Import/Export news out of the US this morning, and we assume this will tie to the US Dollar Index, which will move GOLD Futures (think inflation, think USD)
845am est
We review the US Dollar Index and we see from the 89range chart (swing traders) the most important information to watch.
– Price wedge, just below the highs
– Price Channel, in the middle
– BMT is below us = price magnet
– Short term trend is DOWN
We will use this information from the US Dollar Index to make educated decisions today.
If the US dollar keeps making new lows we want to keep buying at support on the markets we trade.
If the US dollar makes new highs we then want to sell at resistance on the markets we trade most.
If you asked me right now…I would say the dollar is in a down trend, but recently trading sideways.
We need to see the dollar RIGHT NOW making new lows, or new highs. It doesn’t matter what happens in the past.
Right now the dollar is making new highs. So right now we need to be looking for selling opportunities.
915am est
Lack of personality in these markets has us concerned this morning.
We took three winning trades this morning buying the new lows with oversold momentum and using the 13range BMT as our final profit target.
Now we’re trying to get some speed, consistency, and big money in the markets after the open at 930am est.
The US Dollar Index is also trading sideways now, apparently looking for clues ahead of Ben Bernanke at 10am today.
935am est
There is still very little personality in these markets.
Crude Oil futures are off the highs of the bull and bear price channel and trading in a sideways range from 97.96 down to 96.52.
We see the BMT below us
945am est
We continue to see the SHORT SIDE having trouble today, so lets beware of that and use caution.
It may be the big round number of 97.00, it may be the BMT, and it may just be the lack of confidence ahead of the Speech @ 10am and the news at 1030am
Crude Oil Futures:
– Price wedge, we are off the highs
– Sideways range in the middle
– BMT is below, acts like a magnet
– Inside day, below the PHOD, and a very wide range to test the PLOD.
Inside day tells me to buy the lows and sell the highs, avoid the middles and avoid the fake-out breakout.
Plan our attack on crude oil:
As price falls im buying support first (inside day) and then as support is broken I then sell new lower lows with a retracement. I don’t sell at the lows.
Buying the lows of the channel, buying the support from our auto levels indicator, and buying the lows of the wedge.
As price rises im selling at resistance levels first, then as resistance becomes support I look to buy with a pullback. I don’t buy into the highs.
Im selling the PHOD, the HOD, and the highs of the channel and the highs of the wedge.
We then move to a faster timeframe and we see a bear price channel on the 13range chart.
This tells us to keep selling retracements, and keep selling at resistance on the way down.
Inside day and a bear price channel = high % trade will be to sell the overhead highs as price rises.
Double bottoms also showing up on the 13r, so look to sell at resistance.
1030am est
Outside Day now on crude oil
Crude oil inventories come out lower inventories and lower demand. In the recent past the lower demand was all we needed to sell the crude oil after the rookies in the market reacted incorrectly to the lower inventory reading.
Crude News = bearish
Ben Bernanke = higher rates, better tax code, lower inflation. = US Dollar Bullish
1100am est
The dollar is finally at the BMT, its fulfilled its mission
The market now has NO PERSONALITY.
We don’t know who’s in control, so we plan our attack and wait for the best opportunities.
Crude Oil plan of attack:
– Bull price channel, so buying pullbacks with new highs
– Sell the channel highs, and sell short below 98.19 (you can also buy 98.19 as support)
– I will then buy at 98.02 34r trigger line
– Then sell short with a retracement below 98.00
– Then sell the highs of the wedge below 85’s (you can also use the wedge highs as support to buy at that support)
1145am est
Price kept making new highs on crude and we kept buying pullbacks for some easy money late in the morning.
We then sold the highs of the channel for a few more fast track winners and another advanced method winner.
Now it’s time for our members only training.
– Auto 1.9 Released
– Using our New Indicators
– Setting up everything we use as tools for trading.
