May 4, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Plan your trades, trade your plan, another monster day in live trade room
– We are at the lows of the major price channel
– We have 50% of the trigger for a long position at these lows
– This tells me to watch the trigger later today on this 89range chart so we can get some clues for what the market wants to do next.
– If we see this trigger long we know to be looking to buy the lows of this channel
– If we don’t see anything at all (no trigger on the 89range) we will assume that price will keep falling, and we will look for selling opportunities
– One thing we see easily is the overhead resistance at 111.27 and the support below at 109.44, with the lows of this channel in the middle.
– This looks like we may end up trading between these two levels, so keep those in mind.
– We also see very clear sideways ranges that we will use as our guide.
– We have the big money trigger line below us at 109.44 and we know this will act like a price magnet. We also know the BMT is a very sloppy area, so beware trading around 109.44
– 110.00 a big round number and the lows of the channel, just above the BMT has a ‘rough area’ written all over it.
845am est
– We saw the breakout on the gold above the highs of the wedge
– I was 10 seconds too late to the wave long at the breakout
– We tried to re enter but could not find an easy entry long
– We then took the 2step price reversal short after seeing the buyers fail and we got a winner
– We then took the wave 21r long and got a +5 / +10 and then out at entry
– This last trade further confirms that the buyers are weak at this time.
– We do not have the confidence in the strong moves on gold.
– IN review of these last two trades I can easily see we took the right trades, but we did not take our final target in the best spot.
– We need to let them market tell us what to do, and right now the gold market is telling us to take your money and RUN!
900am est
– Lets plan our attack on crude oil today
– We have 1030am news this morning that will be a major impact on the CL contract
– We have to beware that after 10am the price action will change
– We want to wait for after 1035am to then look for the best trades.
– Beware trading from 10am through 1035am EST today with Crude oil inventories out on Wednesday
– Price wedge on crude oil the highs at 113.0 and the lows at 110.0
– We want to buy the lows and sell the highs of this wedge
– We also anticipate the 110.00 level will be very sloppy. Big round number, bottom of the wedge, and the 89range BMT is just below us.
– We are at the lows of a major price channel
– Buy the lows of this channel, and remember to use your 89range (swing trade template) as your guide for a swing trade trigger long as a clue for day trades to the long side.
– Sideways ranges are also very easy to see
– Buy the lows and sell the highs of the sideways ranges
– Our BMT is above us on the 34range, this will be a sloppy area, so avoid trades around the BMT, but look for this as a final profit target b/c the market will move in this direction
– The PHOD is above us, the PLOD we already tested and it held.
– We want to use the PHOD as a price magnet, will be an excellent clue for things to come.
– This is considered an inside day, we are below the PHOD and above the PLOD
Our plan of attack on crude:
If price rises:
– Im selling resistance first, then buying pullbacks with new higher highs
– Im selling 111.20, 112.0 BMT, 112.78 highs of the wedge
– Avoid trading around the BMT
If prices fall:
– Im buying support first, then selling retracements with new lower lows
– Im buying at 110.23 LOD / PLOD, 111.00 the lows of the wedge
– Avoid trading around the 89range BMT at 109.50
– Avoid trading around the OPEN at 110.59
905am est
– We’re still seeing the sloppy, inconsistent speed and tape on the gold
– There appears to be no dollar correlation, and if it is there its not working RIGHT NOW
1035am est
– We’re seeing gold futures trading in the narrow end of the price wedge and around the open we are waiting for the best price action to keep taking trades.
– Lets plan our attack on gold:
o If price falls:
o Im buying the LOD, buying the low of the sideways range, 31.4
o If price keeps dropping I will consider selling retracements, but my rules must confirm the entry
o I will buy the PLOD at 27.1 and buy support at 22.7 if we keep dropping.
1045am est
– We see the personality changing on the gold and crude oil
1125am est
– The change in the market’s personality was certainly to blame for the end of our morning
– We took a HUGE winner on crude oil selling the highs of the range
– Gold continues to slop around and we’re at the lows on the Gold and it appears this market is going to rise now, but very slow and tough to be confident
– We missed our fast track DAILY GOAL by 2 ticks today!!!!!! Missed the 3rd winner by 2 ticks
– Then we took a stop on the Fast Track only to see the crude oil price go straight to the target.
– Frustrating to say the least, but let this be a great learning example.
