August 8, 2012

Morning dollar index Checklist:

 Heat
Map:  What is it telling us?

Heat map on
the dollar index says a bullish 0.2% which is less than our minimum to use the
correlation.  This will change, so keep
watching the heat map every 20-45 minutes.





OHLC
Analysis:
Dollar index
is very bullish, breaking above Tuesday’s highs and today’s European-session
highs (overnight highs).
We are
trading OUTSIDE DAY today above the PHOD we want to buy with wave-pattern-long
when the sellers have lost control.  We
won’t trade the dollar index, we will use this bullish market sentiment to make
educated trading decisions on the markets we trade.
What
price-structures do we see?
·       Trigger-zones are both resistance
above us in the short term today, and major support below us for the future.
·       AB=CD Pattern is bullish, meaning
that when we get to the ‘D’ point around 81.655 we can expect a
price-reversal.  We need to use this
price-reversal to make educated trading decisions.
·       Price wedge is very bearish, and we
just tested the lows and now rising higher.
·       Price channel might show up, but as
for now its nothing more than a very bearish price wedge.
·       Sideways Trading Ranges go from
84.245 down to the 81.390 and we are in the middle of this range.
·       Double-bottom provides the overhead
resistance which contained the buyers and kept this market trading in this wide
sideways range.

Where
will a reversal be likely today?
The price-reversal
has already occurred today at the lows of the price wedge.  The trading from Tuesday was so narrow that
it took almost nothing to reverse this price off the lows.

What is
our trading plan for today?

To use the dollar index correlation as soon as
the heat map gives us the big clue.  If
the dollar index is bullish, as it appears to be, we know the sell-side is the high-percentage
trades.  If for some reason this dollar
index fails to move higher, and starts to drop or trade sideways, we need to
adjust our plan of attack.

    schooloftrade

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