August 7, 2012

Morning Crude Oil Checklist:

Heat
Map:  What is it telling us?
+0.4% says
Crude Oil is bullish today, most likely from the falling dollar index and the
fire at the refinery certainly didn’t hurt.
OHLC
Analysis:
4 for 4 higher-highs
and we have successfully broken new higher-highs above the overnight
highs.  This confirms we are bullish.

Are we
inside or outside day today?
Outside day
above the PHOD which also says to buy and stay bullish.

What
price-structures do we see?
·       Trigger-zone is below us as support
and aided in the short term AB=CD Pattern.
·       AB=CD Pattern is bearish with the
target higher at around 98.00.  We cant
just buy long because of this pattern, we will sell short when we get there.
·       Price wedge is bullish inside the
medium-term bull price channel.
·       Double-bottom provides us with
overhead resistance for a price-reversal.

Where
will a price reversal be likely today?
At the highs
of this range around the price wedge highs, the double-bottom resistance, and
just above the PHOD if these buyers aren’t strong enough this resistance is
going to hold.  Watch the price to rise a
little above 93.25 and then collapse if the sellers are too strong.

What is
our trading plan for today?

as price rises higher on Crude Oil futures we
want to anticipate the market personality going into the highs.  Ideally we want to sell the highs around the price
wedge and double-bottom resistance.  If the
buyers are too strong, and they do not fail at the highs, we then will use a wave-pattern-long
to buy above 93.25.  beware the fake-out
breakout above the highs of any price wedge. 
Remember if the buyers fail, we will sell short once we break back below
the double-bottom resistance, the price wedge highs, and then finally below the
PHOD.

    schooloftrade

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