August 15, 2012

Morning Crude Oil Checklist:

CRUDE OIL CHART PREP

Heat
Map:  What is it telling us?
Heat map
says Crude
Oil is bearish
this morning, but when we open our charts we see
nothing but sideways ranges at this time.
Overnight
Highs & Lows:
We tried to
make new higher-highs overnight, but never even came close.  The sellers then took over and tried to make
new lower-lows and they too failed!  Now we know there
wasn’t any confidence from the buyers OR sellers, so we define the sideways
range
from the highs to the lows and we trade within this range.

Are we
inside or outside day today?
We are
trading above the PLOD and below the PHOD so we are inside day today.  Inside days tell me to trade INSIDE the
current range, in other words, if we get a breakout, assume it will be a fake-out
breakout so we are ‘fading new highs and buying new lows’

What
price-structures do we see?
·       AB=CD Pattern is bearish up at 96.40 for the price-reversal zone.
·       Price channel is bullish and we are
in a narrow price wedge in the middle of this price channel.
·       Sideways Trading Ranges are
everywhere on the 89range chart.  Short term,
medium term, even long term.  Buy the
lows at support and sell the highs at resistance.
·       Double-bottom gives us the resistance
we need to contain the price-action.

Where
will a reversal be likely today?
Price-reversal
is most likely at the highs and/or lows of the short term price wedge.  As price falls to the lows, we look to
buy.  As price rises to the highs, we
look to sell.  The price wedge also tells
me to fade-the-breakouts if we make new higher-highs and buy the failures if we
make new lower-lows.

What is
our trading plan for today?

We are patiently waiting for 1030am EST Inventories
and we have low volume due to contract rollover.  With that said, if the market personality gives
us some action to work with, we will buy the lows at support and sell the highs
at resistance of the short-term trading range we are within.  

    schooloftrade

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