January 15, 2014
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Markets Rally on Bullish Sentiment | Day Trading Newsletter 01/15/14; SchoolOfTrade.com
“Do not judge each day
by the harvest you reap, but rather by the seeds you have sewn.”
Reflections from Today:
· Markets Rally on confident consumers,
low Crude Oil inventories
low Crude Oil inventories
· Crude Oil and Russell very bullish
all session today
all session today
· Crude Oil Inventories came out much
lower, and with higher demand, causing Crude Oil to move higher; we bought pullbacks
all session.
lower, and with higher demand, causing Crude Oil to move higher; we bought pullbacks
all session.
· Crude Oil closes just shy of 95.00 a
barrel, up almost $2.00 today
barrel, up almost $2.00 today
· Mini-Russell Gapped UP at the opening-bell,
we bought pullbacks all session
we bought pullbacks all session
· (US) The House approved a new $1.1
Trillion Spending Bill, keeps the US Government open until September 2014.
Trillion Spending Bill, keeps the US Government open until September 2014.
· Beige Book Report says the economy is
improving, along with real estate, the job market, and inflation is not a
concern so rates are expected to be kept low for all of 2014.
improving, along with real estate, the job market, and inflation is not a
concern so rates are expected to be kept low for all of 2014.
Economic News for Tomorrow:
First, we have Red-Star news at
8:30am EST from Jobless Claims and Consumer Price Index.
These two news events are expected to get the price-action moving very
early in the trading session.
8:30am EST from Jobless Claims and Consumer Price Index.
These two news events are expected to get the price-action moving very
early in the trading session.
 |
| Economic News Tomorrow |
Later in the session we have another Red-Star
news event at 10:00am
EST from the Philly Fed Survey, which is a manufacturing report so we will
certainly be paying close attention to Crude Oil at that time.
news event at 10:00am
EST from the Philly Fed Survey, which is a manufacturing report so we will
certainly be paying close attention to Crude Oil at that time.
Before we finish the morning trading
session tomorrow in the US we will hear from Ben ‘Helicopter’ Bernanke on the topic of the challenges
facing our central bank. Remember, Ben
Bernanke is on his way OUT of office with Janet Yellen eyeing his seat at the
head of the table in February, so this is going to be one of the last times we
hear from “Helicopter-Ben” as our Fed Chairman.
session tomorrow in the US we will hear from Ben ‘Helicopter’ Bernanke on the topic of the challenges
facing our central bank. Remember, Ben
Bernanke is on his way OUT of office with Janet Yellen eyeing his seat at the
head of the table in February, so this is going to be one of the last times we
hear from “Helicopter-Ben” as our Fed Chairman.
Day trading plan for Tomorrow:
Crude Oil:
VIP Chart:
| Crude Oil VIP |
Crude Oil was
a rocket-ship to the moon in today’s trading session. Just like we had projected in last night’s newsletter, an opening-print above the 93.00 PHOD was a sure sign that the
bulls were still in control. We were
bullish all day today on Crude Oil but we have some big clues for tomorrow.
a rocket-ship to the moon in today’s trading session. Just like we had projected in last night’s newsletter, an opening-print above the 93.00 PHOD was a sure sign that the
bulls were still in control. We were
bullish all day today on Crude Oil but we have some big clues for tomorrow.
First, this
wide range today means tomorrow is likely to be a range-bound market for the
morning session.
wide range today means tomorrow is likely to be a range-bound market for the
morning session.
Second, the closing-print
at the highs of the day tells us that the buyers were in control until the very
last moment of trading today. If we open
tomorrow above the HOD from today @ 94.64 we are going to be bullish on the
session once again.
at the highs of the day tells us that the buyers were in control until the very
last moment of trading today. If we open
tomorrow above the HOD from today @ 94.64 we are going to be bullish on the
session once again.
Third, look
at the previous week’s HIGH at 94.22 and the fact that we tried to stay above
it but did NOT. This leave the window
WIDE OPEN for this rally to be reversed and see price-action come right back
down to where we began.
at the previous week’s HIGH at 94.22 and the fact that we tried to stay above
it but did NOT. This leave the window
WIDE OPEN for this rally to be reversed and see price-action come right back
down to where we began.
We have a
very solid plan for tomorrow. An opening-bell
above the 94.64 and we’re bullish until it fails back below that level. If we open inside today’s range (92.73 up to
94.64) then we will be 2-sided trading and we will buy-the-lows at support and sell-the-highs
at resistance. If we open below the
92.73 we are bearish and will remain bearish until we pop back above 92.73.
very solid plan for tomorrow. An opening-bell
above the 94.64 and we’re bullish until it fails back below that level. If we open inside today’s range (92.73 up to
94.64) then we will be 2-sided trading and we will buy-the-lows at support and sell-the-highs
at resistance. If we open below the
92.73 we are bearish and will remain bearish until we pop back above 92.73.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor |
The anchor
chart of Crude Oil shows us a very interesting picture this evening. It’s easy to see the bullish market-sentiment
pushed these price higher today, but we’re now seeing a short term reversal and
the move back down is likely to be a ‘bumpy ride’ as it moves through the moving-averages
acting as support.
chart of Crude Oil shows us a very interesting picture this evening. It’s easy to see the bullish market-sentiment
pushed these price higher today, but we’re now seeing a short term reversal and
the move back down is likely to be a ‘bumpy ride’ as it moves through the moving-averages
acting as support.
We have
three scenarios to consider for tonight and tomorrow. First, if price moves sideways we need to sit-on-hands
until we get some new lower-lows or higher-highs.
three scenarios to consider for tonight and tomorrow. First, if price moves sideways we need to sit-on-hands
until we get some new lower-lows or higher-highs.
Second, if
price moves higher we will buy pullbacks the same way we made our money in
today’s session.
price moves higher we will buy pullbacks the same way we made our money in
today’s session.
Third, if price-action
moves lower it will likely be a very bumpy ride because we can see there are
many support levels waiting for us. We
will sell short if we have enough room to drop ahead of the support levels
listed at 94.00, 93.69, 93.14 and 93.04.
moves lower it will likely be a very bumpy ride because we can see there are
many support levels waiting for us. We
will sell short if we have enough room to drop ahead of the support levels
listed at 94.00, 93.69, 93.14 and 93.04.
If we decide
to get short this evening or tomorrow morning we will use the support levels
below us as targets, just don’t forget about those 3 moving-averages that are
BELOW us, and you can see there is a wide range between each one so there is
potential for the price-action to fall but it will likely bounce off these on
the way down to our ultimate short-selling profit-target at 93.04 and 92.12.
to get short this evening or tomorrow morning we will use the support levels
below us as targets, just don’t forget about those 3 moving-averages that are
BELOW us, and you can see there is a wide range between each one so there is
potential for the price-action to fall but it will likely bounce off these on
the way down to our ultimate short-selling profit-target at 93.04 and 92.12.
Gold:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Gold VIP |
We nailed Gold
for today as well, and the VIP chart shows you exactly what happened. Do you remember how we said an opening-print below
1241.1 today would result in lower prices on the session? Look closely and you can see we opened below
the PLOD and price-action moved lower for the majority of the session today,
giving you easy trading opportunities short-selling today.
for today as well, and the VIP chart shows you exactly what happened. Do you remember how we said an opening-print below
1241.1 today would result in lower prices on the session? Look closely and you can see we opened below
the PLOD and price-action moved lower for the majority of the session today,
giving you easy trading opportunities short-selling today.
For tomorrow
we can see that today’s trading-range was very narrow, with a closing-print in
the middle of today’s range, and staying completely below the range from Tuesday.
We can
assume that this narrow trading-range will likely result in a much WIDER range
on Thursday, so keep an eye on the range high at 1254.9 as a profit-target if
we get back up above the 1241.1.
assume that this narrow trading-range will likely result in a much WIDER range
on Thursday, so keep an eye on the range high at 1254.9 as a profit-target if
we get back up above the 1241.1.
We are
BULLISH with an opening-print above 1241.8 tomorrow and bearish if we open the
session below 1233.5. If we go short we
want to use 126.6 and 1222.8 as profit-targets for sellers. If we get long we are using the previous week
high at 1248.5 and Tuesday highs at 1254.9 as our profit-targets.
BULLISH with an opening-print above 1241.8 tomorrow and bearish if we open the
session below 1233.5. If we go short we
want to use 126.6 and 1222.8 as profit-targets for sellers. If we get long we are using the previous week
high at 1248.5 and Tuesday highs at 1254.9 as our profit-targets.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Gold Anchor 1 |
The anchor
chart of Gold is FILLED with important clues for tomorrow’s trading session,
starting with the recent shift from bearish to sideways and now bullish going
into the Asian trading session at 7pm EST.
chart of Gold is FILLED with important clues for tomorrow’s trading session,
starting with the recent shift from bearish to sideways and now bullish going
into the Asian trading session at 7pm EST.
First, we
can see a bullish price channel with a green ‘cloud’ telling us that the buyers
have taken control over this price-action.
We can see the moving-averages are BELOW the current price so we have
the green light to buy right now using our wave-pattern long.
can see a bullish price channel with a green ‘cloud’ telling us that the buyers
have taken control over this price-action.
We can see the moving-averages are BELOW the current price so we have
the green light to buy right now using our wave-pattern long.
 |
| Gold Anchor 2 |
We have
plenty of profit-targets above us for buying opportunities this evening
starting with 1243.2, 1244.2, 1245.2 and 1246.7. Please notice the BIG REVERSAL location is
going to be 1245.2.
plenty of profit-targets above us for buying opportunities this evening
starting with 1243.2, 1244.2, 1245.2 and 1246.7. Please notice the BIG REVERSAL location is
going to be 1245.2.
If price
keeps moving higher we will also want to use the previous week’s high at 1248.5
as another profit-target and then look for a price-reversal at that level as
the rest of the buyers take their profit.
keeps moving higher we will also want to use the previous week’s high at 1248.5
as another profit-target and then look for a price-reversal at that level as
the rest of the buyers take their profit.
 |
| Gold Anchor 3 |
What happens
if price falls lower? If we see this price-action
move lower before it goes higher we are looking for buying opportunities at
1238.2 and then again at 1236.1. If we
end up moving below the 1236.1 we will then STOP buying and change to bearish market-sentiment
so we will start selling below 1236.1 and use the double-top support at 1232.3
as a profit-target.
if price falls lower? If we see this price-action
move lower before it goes higher we are looking for buying opportunities at
1238.2 and then again at 1236.1. If we
end up moving below the 1236.1 we will then STOP buying and change to bearish market-sentiment
so we will start selling below 1236.1 and use the double-top support at 1232.3
as a profit-target.
Mini-Russell:
VIP Chart:
The VIP
Chart of the Mini-Russell confirms that we NAILED our call on last night’s
newsletter. If you recall, we had
predicted a very bullish run if the opening-bell this morning was above the 1161.7
at 9:30am EST, and it certainly was.
Chart of the Mini-Russell confirms that we NAILED our call on last night’s
newsletter. If you recall, we had
predicted a very bullish run if the opening-bell this morning was above the 1161.7
at 9:30am EST, and it certainly was.
 |
| Russell VIP |
I think we
have some big clues on this VIP chart that suggest we may be in for ANOTHER big
move on Thursday.
have some big clues on this VIP chart that suggest we may be in for ANOTHER big
move on Thursday.
First, the
narrow trading-range tells us tomorrow is likely to be a much wider trading-range.
narrow trading-range tells us tomorrow is likely to be a much wider trading-range.
Second, the closing-print
this evening at the highs of today’s range tells us the buyers had control
until the very last trade of the session today.
The million-dollar question is “will they have control tomorrow?”
this evening at the highs of today’s range tells us the buyers had control
until the very last trade of the session today.
The million-dollar question is “will they have control tomorrow?”
Third clue
we see is the prior week’s high. We
opened and stayed above the weekly highs today, which tells me if we re-open tomorrow
above the 1161.6 we are going to continue higher in this bullish market-personality
on the Mini-Russell.
we see is the prior week’s high. We
opened and stayed above the weekly highs today, which tells me if we re-open tomorrow
above the 1161.6 we are going to continue higher in this bullish market-personality
on the Mini-Russell.
One thing we
MUST be ready for tomorrow is the potential for a profit-taking collapse back
under the weekly highs and headed back into this long-term sideways-trading-
MUST be ready for tomorrow is the potential for a profit-taking collapse back
under the weekly highs and headed back into this long-term sideways-trading-
range
from 1161.7 down to 1138.6.
from 1161.7 down to 1138.6.
Watch
closely tomorrow morning to see where we open the session. If we open above the 1169.5 we are buying
with the wave-pattern long because we are very bullish.
closely tomorrow morning to see where we open the session. If we open above the 1169.5 we are buying
with the wave-pattern long because we are very bullish.
If we open
tomorrow inside today’s range from 1169.5 down to 1161.7 we will assume the
buyers and sellers are in balance, which means we will buy the lows and sell
the highs of the range until something breaks the price-action higher or lower.
tomorrow inside today’s range from 1169.5 down to 1161.7 we will assume the
buyers and sellers are in balance, which means we will buy the lows and sell
the highs of the range until something breaks the price-action higher or lower.
If we open
tomorrow morning below today’s low of 1161.7 we will have seen a massive
failure of the buyers and the price-action is very likely to trade lower all
the way back down to Tuesday’s lows at 1148.1 or even as low as the previous
week’s low at 1143.2 or the PLOD at 1138.6.
tomorrow morning below today’s low of 1161.7 we will have seen a massive
failure of the buyers and the price-action is very likely to trade lower all
the way back down to Tuesday’s lows at 1148.1 or even as low as the previous
week’s low at 1143.2 or the PLOD at 1138.6.
This narrow trading-range
tells us that we may see some big fireworks on the Mini-Russell in Thursday’s
trading session, while at the same time we are at new highs and we may keep
crankin’ higher, we will have to wait and see!
tells us that we may see some big fireworks on the Mini-Russell in Thursday’s
trading session, while at the same time we are at new highs and we may keep
crankin’ higher, we will have to wait and see!
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Russell Anchor 1 |
Where does
the Mini-Russell want to go next? The anchor
chart shows us that we have the green light to buy pullbacks with our wave-pattern
long because we have all the moving-averages below us as support and wide open
space to move higher up to 1171.5 for a profit-target.
the Mini-Russell want to go next? The anchor
chart shows us that we have the green light to buy pullbacks with our wave-pattern
long because we have all the moving-averages below us as support and wide open
space to move higher up to 1171.5 for a profit-target.
We can see a
bullish price channel on this anchor chart, and we are above the previous week’s
highs of 1162.2.
bullish price channel on this anchor chart, and we are above the previous week’s
highs of 1162.2.
With this
bullish market-personality we have a few scenarios to consider going into
tomorrow.
bullish market-personality we have a few scenarios to consider going into
tomorrow.
 |
| Russell Anchor 2 |
First, if we
trade sideways here we will sit-on-hands and wait for something to get this price-action
making new higher-highs or lower-lows.
trade sideways here we will sit-on-hands and wait for something to get this price-action
making new higher-highs or lower-lows.
Second, if
we go higher we will immediately start buying using our very effective ‘wave-pattern
long’ to enter on pullbacks and use the resistance targets overhead at 1171.5,
1173.0, 1173.9 and so forth.
we go higher we will immediately start buying using our very effective ‘wave-pattern
long’ to enter on pullbacks and use the resistance targets overhead at 1171.5,
1173.0, 1173.9 and so forth.
 |
| Russell Anchor 3 |
Third, if price-action
moves lower before it moves higher we have a buy-zone at 1166.7 and again at
1165.0. Please be aware, if we get below
the 1165.0 buy-zone we are now turned bearish and will begin selling short with
an easy profit-target at the previous week’s high at 1162.2 and then another
target will be at the low of the day from today at 1159.3
moves lower before it moves higher we have a buy-zone at 1166.7 and again at
1165.0. Please be aware, if we get below
the 1165.0 buy-zone we are now turned bearish and will begin selling short with
an easy profit-target at the previous week’s high at 1162.2 and then another
target will be at the low of the day from today at 1159.3
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