October 21, 2011

Markets continue to look at Europe for solutions on OPEX Friday

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The James’ Report:  Professional Resources for Professional Traders

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– Dollar index trading in the same spot as earlier this week, in the middle of a narrow trading range, inside the reversal zone from the previous break of the bull price channel.  We want to wait for the dollar index to move higher or lower to give us the best trading opportunities today

– crude oil futures trading up off the lows of the price channel, having reversed exactly in our reversal zone (we took the long above the ‘reversal-zone’ yesterday afternoon) and now giving us opportunity to buy the price channel lows.  We will buy above 87.12 with the goal of taking price up to 88.86 and then 89.69 for the final target at the highs of the range.  We will also expect to see some failure at some point in this move above the PHOD so look for price to come crashing back down below 86.89 for a nice selling opportunity heading back INSIDE the range from Thursday.

We are looking to sell the channel highs, sell below the PHOD and get into the reversal zone at the lows of the channel for an easy buying opportunity

– Gold futures trading at the highs of the bear price channel in the ‘reversal-zone’ and we are looking to sell these highs.  The BMT is right around the corner 1645.8 so we need to stay AWAY from that price magnet.  The dollar index just dropped to the lows of its price wedge, so if it comes back UP the gold futures will fall out of the ‘reversal-zone’ lows and we will down to the PHOD 1631.6 and then selling below the highs of the bear price channel below 1630.4 area the 89r trigger line.   If price keeps rising we will sell as price rises into the next level of resistance, which is 1660.6.  we can sell the highs of the ‘reversal-zone’ and if we break above the 1660.6 we then look for the fake-out breakout and if buyers are too strong to fail at the highs we then buy a pullback with new higher-highs up to the 1666.9 and then keep repeating, looking for shorts, then fake-out breakout, then buy pullback with higher-highs.

– Gold futures look ripe for short trades this morning above the price wedge highs in the ‘reversal-zone’ and above the range from yesterday.  This market just needs the dollar index to move higher off its lows of the range to give it that little push we need to get it to tumble.  If it keeps going higher looking to sell the highs of the price wedge 1648.7, 1651.1, 1652.9 and 1660.6

– Mini-Russell Futures trading with some easy clues this morning, the big concern will be market personality.  We’re at the highs of the bear price channel, the lows of the ‘reversal-zone’, above the range from Thursday (outside day), and we can see the recent swing low from Thursday has given us a price wedge pattern at the highs and lows.  As price rises I will sell the price channel highs, sell the resistance above the price channel highs 709..9, 711.4 and 716.8.  As price rises I’m selling at resistance first, and then with new higher-highs will buy a pullback.  If price drops (or dollar index rises off its lows) we will sell price channel highs below the lows of the ‘reversal-zone’ and below the PHOD 700.3 so short below 700.0.  we will take profit at the 89r trigger 695.0 and then hold the short position (avoid entering a trade in the middle) with the goal of final target at the range lows, PLOD, and price wedge lows at 675.6.  Final target will be around 680.0 to make sure we don’t see to much support from price wedge lows.

update on CRUDE OIL:

New bullish channel and trigger zones.  dont buy the new channel highs, lets wait to buy the lows, OR look to sell below 88.10 for the FAILURE down to the ZONE below us 87.60

Crude Oil tumbles off the channel highs (we took 55 ticks for winner) and we now adjust our levels for the next few trades:

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Around the Globe this morning:

– Fitch: Any EU plan will not solve sovereign ratings woes

– Germany and France said to remain at odds over nearly every provision in EU rescue plan

– German Oct IFO slightly beats forecasts but register MoM declines as German economy clearly is slowing.

– European shares edged higher today ahead of the summit this weekend where leaders are expected to agree on a solution for the debt crisis

– German Gov’t confirmed there would two summits over the next week  with the first to take place on Sunday Oct 23rd for debating purposes only while the second ‘decisive’ summit scheduled for Wed, Oct 26th. Chancellor Merkel to address EU Parliament on Wed, Oct 26th

– Developments ahead of the EU summits due on the weekend and next Wednesday remained in focus

– Many trader do NOT think the upcoming summit will have any real solution for Europe, and that Europe is already showing signs of another recession.

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Today’s Economic News:

All eyes will be on Europe this morning and the headlines that come out ahead of this weekend’s Leaders Summit where they are expected to make important headway in a new deal to solve the Euro currency futures crisis.

Today is OPEX, the day before options expire on Saturday, and the focus today will be on small periods of opportunity early in the morning.

We don’t expect to see volume all morning today, but there will be periods between 830am and 1100am EST this morning that will give us plenty of opportunity.  Look for volume to drop early this morning ahead of the weekend and OPEX.  We will be taking questions and doing a webinar as of 11am EST today.

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    schooloftrade

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