Make them Prove it | Crude Oil, Gold, E-mini & Euro Futures 01/27/16

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“My worst
days as a trader are still better than the best days doing anything else.”

Notes for Tonight’s Newsletter:

Crude
Oil is bullish but the bulls just finished their measured-move
and the sellers held their pullback
so we expect to see a bearish 2-legged-correction
back to support levels below before the next leg higher.  We have a bull channel, three
pushes higher and a completed measured-move
for the bulls which tells us most of the buyers took profit at today’s
highs.  we also see the bears held the pullback
after the drop off the highs and the bulls have NOT been able to follow it
thereafter which means the bears have control and the buyers need to prove this
with a higher-high
and a hold of the next pullback if we want to buy tomorrow.  If buyers take control they will be hunting
for a new high and a possible test of 34.14 tomorrow, and if the sellers keep
control we look for a move back to 31.00.

E-mini
S&P is range-bound
this evening and three pushes down to the range-lows tell us to look for the
buyers to push price back to range-highs tomorrow and all we need is to see the
sellers fail on this next pullback.  The day began in a narrow range which was
followed by BOTH bullish and bearish tests of the range ‘expansions’
and with three pushes for the sellers and only two for the buyers we can assume
the next push will be back to the highs, but buyers should wait for PROOF in
the form of a failed pullback.  If price continues lower overnight, we assume
they are trying to finish the gap-fill
at 1861.25 and then the buyers will be watching for the same thing again.

Gold
is bullish but trading at the highs of the channel
just inches away from completing a multiple measured-move
which tells us there isn’t much left up at these highs and buyers will
wait for a correction back to the channel-lows before they buy more.  We have a major bull-channel ‘overshoot’,
measured-move, and short-term bull-flag
that are all telling the buyers to take profit at these highs which tells the
wise buyers to wait for a bearish correction to ‘trap’
the sellers before buying it back higher again tomorrow.

Euro
is bullish but it appears the buyers already got their target because the last
few attempts to push higher have been really weak which tells us to wait for a 2-legged-correction
lower before we consider buying more.  We
have a major channel with a possible ‘undershoot’
of the highs, and a completed measured-move
that is trying to keep pushing higher but appears to be losing momentum which
tells us the bulls most likely already exited this move and will be waiting for
a bearish correction
before they buy more.  If price rises
higher it will complete the channel rotation
so we can’t buy the highs, and if price goes lower we have a few support areas
for the buyers to wait for tomorrow.