January 31, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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***Notes/Observations
from around the world***
from around the world***
– EU Governments appear to be closer to fiscal
union arrangement and agreement on €500B ESM Bailout Fund
union arrangement and agreement on €500B ESM Bailout Fund
-ECB
Draghi: Fiscal Pact is first step toward fiscal union
Draghi: Fiscal Pact is first step toward fiscal union
–
Continued optimism on progress in Greek PSI talks
Continued optimism on progress in Greek PSI talks
–
German Jan unemployment data beats expectations
German Jan unemployment data beats expectations
–
Italy Dec Unemployment data higher than expectations
Italy Dec Unemployment data higher than expectations
–
Euro Zone Dec Unemployment of 10.4% is the highest since 1998
Euro Zone Dec Unemployment of 10.4% is the highest since 1998
–
European shares rose during the session as markets adopted a risk-on attitude
following EU summit. European leaders agreed on stricter budget plan while
Greece’s PM Papademos noted that debt talks had advanced significantly.
European shares rose during the session as markets adopted a risk-on attitude
following EU summit. European leaders agreed on stricter budget plan while
Greece’s PM Papademos noted that debt talks had advanced significantly.
Speakers:
–
EU’s Juncker commented that there was no need for a special commissioner to
monitor Greece and forecasted an agreement between Greece and private creditors
possible by end of week and Monday ‘at the latest’ and he insisted to Greek PM
Papademos that PSI be settled asap. He added that Mersch was the best candidate
for ECB executive board.
EU’s Juncker commented that there was no need for a special commissioner to
monitor Greece and forecasted an agreement between Greece and private creditors
possible by end of week and Monday ‘at the latest’ and he insisted to Greek PM
Papademos that PSI be settled asap. He added that Mersch was the best candidate
for ECB executive board.
–
China Premier Wen reiterated the view that China would fine tune its economic
policy and step up credit support for the economy at a State Council meeting.
He commented that it would promote
reasonable decline in housing prices
China Premier Wen reiterated the view that China would fine tune its economic
policy and step up credit support for the economy at a State Council meeting.
He commented that it would promote
reasonable decline in housing prices
–
German Chancellor Merkel was said to be seeking support of Chinese investors
and lobby for joint euro stabilization in China ahead of her Official Visit to
the Far East (set for Feb 1st thru 4th)
German Chancellor Merkel was said to be seeking support of Chinese investors
and lobby for joint euro stabilization in China ahead of her Official Visit to
the Far East (set for Feb 1st thru 4th)
–
BOE Tucker commented that bank rules must expose debt and equity investors to
losses
BOE Tucker commented that bank rules must expose debt and equity investors to
losses
–
India PM Econ Advisor Rangarajan commented that the country needed to use all
tools to combat inflation and lower its budget deficit to deliver higher
economic growth. He stressed that India should target a current account deficit
below 2.5% of GDP
India PM Econ Advisor Rangarajan commented that the country needed to use all
tools to combat inflation and lower its budget deficit to deliver higher
economic growth. He stressed that India should target a current account deficit
below 2.5% of GDP
Currencies:
–
Risk appetite was bolstered by the outcome of the EU Leader Summit on Monday
which moved closer fiscal union for 25 States (Except UK and Czech Republic)
and to finally sign off on the details of a €500B permanent bailout fund. The
final shape of the deal to reduce Greece’s debt is still unknown after
Risk appetite was bolstered by the outcome of the EU Leader Summit on Monday
which moved closer fiscal union for 25 States (Except UK and Czech Republic)
and to finally sign off on the details of a €500B permanent bailout fund. The
final shape of the deal to reduce Greece’s debt is still unknown after
months
of wrangling between the Greek government but optimism continued to prevail
of wrangling between the Greek government but optimism continued to prevail
–
The USD maintained a softer tone against the major pairs. The EUR/USD was back
testing the 1.32 handle but was unable to take out last Friday’s intra-day high
of 1.3220. The pair was off its best levels as the various European data
continued to highlight the two-tier economies of Europe. German unemployment
data was at record lows while the whole the Euro Zone unemployment was at its highest
level since early 1998. German retail sales did show that its economy had
pockets of weakness.
The USD maintained a softer tone against the major pairs. The EUR/USD was back
testing the 1.32 handle but was unable to take out last Friday’s intra-day high
of 1.3220. The pair was off its best levels as the various European data
continued to highlight the two-tier economies of Europe. German unemployment
data was at record lows while the whole the Euro Zone unemployment was at its highest
level since early 1998. German retail sales did show that its economy had
pockets of weakness.
Political/
In the Papers:
In the Papers:
–
The FT commented that European banks may ask for further funds from the ECB.
Banks in Europe may tap the ECBs funding scheme for up to two times more than
the ECB supplied in €489 billion auction last month, indicating a possible
further liquidity squeeze. Several large
European banks said they may double, or even triple funding requests in
February’s auction (29th Feb). US banks Goldman Sachs informed their clients
that banks could ask for twice as much as the auction in December; one senior
banker stated that banks could easily do another €1 trillion.
The FT commented that European banks may ask for further funds from the ECB.
Banks in Europe may tap the ECBs funding scheme for up to two times more than
the ECB supplied in €489 billion auction last month, indicating a possible
further liquidity squeeze. Several large
European banks said they may double, or even triple funding requests in
February’s auction (29th Feb). US banks Goldman Sachs informed their clients
that banks could ask for twice as much as the auction in December; one senior
banker stated that banks could easily do another €1 trillion.
–
Various press articles out of Europe commented on the rising borrowing costs in
Portugal, as it hit record highs following fears that it could follow in
Greece’s footstep towards a debt write-down. SocGen economist Nixon said
Portugal may struggle in its plans to return to the capital markets by the end
of next year. It may require additional finances, which may mean a second
bailout, or possibly a similar Greek-like debt write-down. Evans-Pritchard also
noted contagion concerns related to Greece have weighed on Portuguese bonds
with Investors doubting EU officials’ pledges that haircuts would not be
applied to debt.
Various press articles out of Europe commented on the rising borrowing costs in
Portugal, as it hit record highs following fears that it could follow in
Greece’s footstep towards a debt write-down. SocGen economist Nixon said
Portugal may struggle in its plans to return to the capital markets by the end
of next year. It may require additional finances, which may mean a second
bailout, or possibly a similar Greek-like debt write-down. Evans-Pritchard also
noted contagion concerns related to Greece have weighed on Portuguese bonds
with Investors doubting EU officials’ pledges that haircuts would not be
applied to debt.
–
Following its FY12 cut in economic forecasts (from 1% to just 0.9%), the IBEC
(Irish Business and Employers’ Confederation) reiterated a call for measures
aimed at stimulating consumer spending. One suggestion was to allow people to
draw down part of private pensions or other voluntary contributions to spend at
this time.
Following its FY12 cut in economic forecasts (from 1% to just 0.9%), the IBEC
(Irish Business and Employers’ Confederation) reiterated a call for measures
aimed at stimulating consumer spending. One suggestion was to allow people to
draw down part of private pensions or other voluntary contributions to spend at
this time.
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Today’s Economic News:
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
have the markets reacting to news from Germany in the London Open of the day
and we have US news to consider coming out starting at 830am EST.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
have the markets reacting to news from Germany in the London Open of the day
and we have US news to consider coming out starting at 830am EST.
We
begin our day with 830am EST Employment Cost Index (ECI) which is the change in
prices that the government and private businesses pay for labor. If this number is higher than expected the
Dollar index is likely to rise, so keep that in mind as you trade the reaction
this morning. This is a leading
indicator to consumer inflation because when businesses pay MORE for labor they
always pass that added expense to the consumer.
If the Fed here in the US is trying to print more money and avoid
inflation, this is going to be a key indicator to watch, so we will too.
begin our day with 830am EST Employment Cost Index (ECI) which is the change in
prices that the government and private businesses pay for labor. If this number is higher than expected the
Dollar index is likely to rise, so keep that in mind as you trade the reaction
this morning. This is a leading
indicator to consumer inflation because when businesses pay MORE for labor they
always pass that added expense to the consumer.
If the Fed here in the US is trying to print more money and avoid
inflation, this is going to be a key indicator to watch, so we will too.
How do we trade ECI
News? We really
can’t, but we can use it as a clue for what the Fed will do in the future. If inflation picks up quickly we will see
demand for crude drop, we will see the euro currency futures move higher, but
these are lasting effects, so stand aside while this report comes out and try
to find a reaction we can trade.
News? We really
can’t, but we can use it as a clue for what the Fed will do in the future. If inflation picks up quickly we will see
demand for crude drop, we will see the euro currency futures move higher, but
these are lasting effects, so stand aside while this report comes out and try
to find a reaction we can trade.
 |
| Employment Cost Index 10 year |
We
have a minor Case-Schiller Home Price Index at 900am EST this morning and the
markets will watch but chances are slim it will have much impact on the price
action we see mainly because the markets don’t TRUST the news from the housing
market for a number of reasons these days.
We don’t expect to get much from this report at 900am EST.
have a minor Case-Schiller Home Price Index at 900am EST this morning and the
markets will watch but chances are slim it will have much impact on the price
action we see mainly because the markets don’t TRUST the news from the housing
market for a number of reasons these days.
We don’t expect to get much from this report at 900am EST.
We
have another major news event at 945am EST Chicago PMI, and this report is
vital for getting a heads up to trends in the future for small businesses. The purchasing manager of any company is
always the most important position because if you buy products cheap you can
make bigger margins when they are sold to the consumer. This report today at 945am EST surveys
purchasing managers in Chicago on topics such as employment, production, new
orders, prices, suppliers, deliveries and inventory. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, and
below considered contraction.
have another major news event at 945am EST Chicago PMI, and this report is
vital for getting a heads up to trends in the future for small businesses. The purchasing manager of any company is
always the most important position because if you buy products cheap you can
make bigger margins when they are sold to the consumer. This report today at 945am EST surveys
purchasing managers in Chicago on topics such as employment, production, new
orders, prices, suppliers, deliveries and inventory. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, and
below considered contraction.
How do we trade Chicago
PMI? If this number is above 50 we expect crude
oil futures to react with higher prices, assuming that consumers will be
opening new businesses and crude oil will be used for that. Demand will increase and so will price.
PMI? If this number is above 50 we expect crude
oil futures to react with higher prices, assuming that consumers will be
opening new businesses and crude oil will be used for that. Demand will increase and so will price.
 |
| Chicago PMI 10 years |
We
finish up the US news this morning with 1000am EST Consumer Confidence, the
biggest report of the day, and something we can all understand what it means to
the markets we trade most. This is a
survey of 500 consumer households, and is a considerable leading indicator for
consumer spending which is the most important aspect of any economy, healthy or
weak. Notice consumer confidence has
been rising since end of 2011, and we have seen jobless claims drop along with
manufacturing indexes rise….will this ‘trend’ in optimistic consumer
continue?
finish up the US news this morning with 1000am EST Consumer Confidence, the
biggest report of the day, and something we can all understand what it means to
the markets we trade most. This is a
survey of 500 consumer households, and is a considerable leading indicator for
consumer spending which is the most important aspect of any economy, healthy or
weak. Notice consumer confidence has
been rising since end of 2011, and we have seen jobless claims drop along with
manufacturing indexes rise….will this ‘trend’ in optimistic consumer
continue?
How do we trade
consumer confidence? I’ll
take crude for example. If this number
is higher than expected crude oil futures will rise on the assumed increase in
demand as people are getting more confident to take that family trip, open a
new business, and have the need for crude.
consumer confidence? I’ll
take crude for example. If this number
is higher than expected crude oil futures will rise on the assumed increase in
demand as people are getting more confident to take that family trip, open a
new business, and have the need for crude.
 |
| Consumer Confidence 10 years |
| Today’s News for Day Traders |
We
are going to be restricted to members-only after 1130am EST this morning, so
keep that in mind. Our entire team looks
forward to working with you today!
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Trial of this service by following this link: https://www.tradethenews.com/?affiliate=sot
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