March 15, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
If diamonds are a girl’s best friend…. more GOLD for me!
800am est
– We have the crude oil and gold markets dropping
– Took my first trade of the day @ 745am EST with a wave short on the crude 13range
– Dollar is rising this morning, so we’re looking for shorts
– We have FOMC DAY today, which means early volume, take your money and run
– We review this on the morning prep.
815am est
– I took the wave short on the crude oil 13range chart when we broke new lows
– Now we see the lows of the price channel have already been tested, so I missed buying the lows of the channel at 97.00
– The next buying opportunity if price keeps rising will be above 98.00
– Look to buy a pullback when price breaks > 98.00
– Looking a little closer now after we test new lows we see a strong bearish price channel that we will use as another guide.
845am est
– We’re having a decent FED day so far
– 3 trades, 3 winners for me
– 1 FT trade = 1 winner
– The dollar ATR is rising (expected for FED Day)
– We need to be cautious of the TIME so we don’t get wrapped up in the lower volume later this morning for FED DAY
– Dollar getting a little choppy at the highs of the price channel (defined on morning prep)
855am est
– We have 900am news, long term TIC flows, or treasury international capital
– Strong TIC flow = strong demand for US equities, bonds, US Dollar
– Strong TIC Flow = bearish for GOLD (USD Bullish)
900am est
– News is out, lower than expected
– Lower TIC flows = dollar bearish = gold bullish
– Lets wait and see how this market reacts
– Watch the DOLLAR first, see how it moves after the news
– We’re seeing the dollar on 34range chart resting on support, so keep an eye on the dollar short term bounce up, giving us selling opportunities for a short time on crude and gold
925am est
– The dollar index on the 13range chart is now showing a short term BEARISH price channel
– This is causing the gold and the crude oil to transition into a short term bullish price move.
– We need to ADJUST our initial bias to the short side (DX rising) and now look at BOTH sides (long and short) until we define the long term direction on these markets.
– Is crude oil just retracing off the lows? Or is this a full blown price reversal?
– Wait for the break of the 34range chart for the confirmation of the price reversal
1000am est
– We are trading in a sideways range on crude oil
– We are in the middle of the sideways range
1050am est
– We have had a great day so far
– We forget about the tough day we had on Monday
– Everything looking great
– Lots of higher risk entries with the OPEX and FRED DAY today, so not many chances for the fast track
– We took 2 winner on the FT, and 1 marginal loss
– Most people took the 2 winners, only a handful took the loss
– We see the dollar is making new lows, and we have a little more room on the DX 13range chart for the price to drop to 76.700
– Watch the dollar for a BOUNCE off this support, and then look for selling opportunities on the markets we trade.
– Right now the dollar is dropping = we want to buy
1100AM est
– 11am is LATE for FOMC/FED Day
– We see heavy volume in the morning
– Earlier close than normal on FED mornings
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