March 14, 2011

I didn’t expect much today…which is why I was NOT prepared

830am est

– We can clearly see that crude oil tried to make new lows this morning, but failed

– We can see double-bottom at 98.50, and we know that the market broke a new low below the trend lines that were drawn from Friday.

– This tells us there is definite support at the lows, we take this as a sign to BUY THE LOWS the next time it comes down.

– We also notice that the 100 level, big and scary round number, is also in the middle of the trading range we see on the 34range chart of crude oil

– All of this telling us to beware.

835am est

– We also reminded that it was DST this weekend, traders may be a little groggy this morning waking up without an hour of sleep.

1000am est

– We’ve had a rough go this morning on the Fast Track

– 2 waves on the crude 21range and 2 losses

– Both trades had some items of concern looking back in hind-sight

– Trading around the OPEN may be too tough this week

– Around the open we assume we will have sloppy price action, so lets keep the OPEN’s (prev and current day) on our minds.

– We also tried to buy into the highs of the price wedge, which will also be a higher risk position

– Looking back at our day so far, we knew to be careful and we need to sit on our hands and wait for the next high % opportunity.

– Very slow speed of the tape on crude at the highs

1025am est

– We’re starting to think this day may be over

– Very slow speed, very low ATR

– We have the crude oil trapped above the OPEN of the day, but below the trend lines as resistance

– Inconsistent speed is our biggest fear right now

– This gets us INTO a trade, only then to slow down and then stop us out.

1045am est

– We notice strong bullish price channels on gold

– Let’s look to buy at support when price is moving fast enough this morning

1100am est

– Crude oil rests quietly around the big round number of 100.00

– Gold trades off the highs, with very slow and inconsistent speed back down to the OPEN of the day

– We need to be careful trading gold around the OPEN, and trading crude oil around 100.00

Where did I make my mistakes today:

– Wasn’t looking for much today, so I wasn’t ready, this cost me, made the issue worse

–

– Not being ready with the FAST timeframes trend lines, I didn’t see the price channel on the first wave on crude 21r

– Trading around the OPEN of the day, or the PREV OPEN of the day

– Buying into the Highs (we had a wedge pattern and we were just off the highs)