I Almost Gave it All Back! But Wait, Another Winning Day?

The Market Gives us clues today…

815am EST

– Dollar Index futures trading sideways above big round number of 82.000

o Average true range is low, lower than it has been in the previous week (use caution)

o Pace of tape is also very slow

o Market appears to be very quiet right now

o The dollar moving slowly is a concern that the rest of the market will also be moving slowly.

– Pound Futures are in a very tough spot, we need to be careful trading the Pound

o Lots of trend lines and resistance levels overhead

o Its trying to push through these levels, so we need to let it succeed and wait for the best times above resistance.

o Average true range is in the middle of its range from earlier this week.

o Pace of tape < 100 (slow speed, so be careful)

– Euro Futures trading sideways below the 3300 level

o Average true range is at its lower end of the week, this means we might want to for a better time in the market.

900AM est

– Crude Oil Futures trading thru its highs, trying to wait for it to get above overhead resistance

o Average true has dropped to its lowest point in a week, and now begins to rise off that low

 Low ATR reading tells us to wait to trade the crude oil this morning until the price action improves.

930AM EST

– Gold Futures are very slow, trading sideways in the same trading range from yesterday.

o Watch the speed and watch the atr to know when to look for the best time to trade.

15-tick Rule:

– Looking for the Dollar to have enough room to move, so I can trade the euro/pound/yen

– Look for the most recent swing level to identify your potential level

o Dollar Example: 82.130 (.005 tick movement)

 5 x 15ticks = 75

 130 + 75 = 205

 82.130 – 82.205 (15-ticks of room)

 82.175 (175+75) = 82.250

 82.175 – 82.250

 Target = above 175 on the dollar

Certain levels we want to avoid:

– Open/Close of the Day

– Double-tops/bottoms

– Big Round Numbers

– Market Profile VAH/VAL (intermediate course)

– The reason is b/c CRAZY things happen around these levels

o Lots of important decisions being made around these levels.

1000am

– Euro futures

o Short the Euro from 1.3224 on the DX Pattern

o Entry was chasing, we got in late

o We had to enter at the US Open, so higher risk entry

o The better entry was there, I simply missed it b/c I was taking a trade on crude oil

o 1000am we saw +10ticks of profit, and we could easily take profit b/c we saw the overhead resistance on the dollar

 If you were trading more than 2 lots, you would take profit @ 3210

1015AM EST

– Watching the euro bounce around its point of entry on the DX Long

– We’re waiting for our final target to get filled @ 1.3200 (big round number + just above the LOD)

1030am EST

– Nat Gas inventories came in higher than expected

o Higher inventories can means 2 things:

 People are consuming Nat Gas at a very fast rate, causing the producers of Nat Gas to stock up and hold more inventory

 If nobody at all is consuming nat gas, the product never leaves the warehouse, and it piles up as extra inventory

 This is one reason I don’t trade the news!

 Its too difficult to tell what the reaction with be to that news release.

6 trades today, 4 Winners

+27 ticks, $270 usd

Only 4 contracts needed to achieve this today!

See you tomorrow @ 745am EST for the live trade room session!