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Futures trading lower; day traders prepare for weekly Jobless Claims Economic News
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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Professional traders understand that we
are on a journey every day learning more from the markets. If this is true, then we need to remember not
to allow the old ‘baggage’ from our history drag us down in our future. Professional traders have mastered the idea
of learning from mistakes, making small changes in their routines to avoid
those mistakes in the future, while not allowing those mistakes to ‘drag them
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Remember to cut the dead weight in your trading career by treating every
new day as an opportunity to learn with an open mind. A good trick every day is to remind yourself ‘what’s my trading plan today, and how can
I plan to execute this plan?’
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| Heat Map Futures |
world***
dipped in negative territory after China’s manufacturing data contracted.
Europe’s economic horsepower, Germany also reported a recessionary PMI with the
figure coming below the 50 mark.
preliminary March HSBC PMI declines and stays below the pivotal 50 level for
the fifth month
Major European PMI data misses expectations with manufacturing moving below 50
across the board
–
UK Feb Retail Sales data was weaker than expected with lower back month
revisions to boot
-ECB’s
Draghi Says Euro zone Situation “Stabilizing”
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Japan registers a trade surplus (first in 5 months)
Bundesbank refuted press reports that it sought the ECB to wind down its
covered bond purchases and added that it was up to ECB to decide when it was
appropriate to end covered bond purchases
German Debt Agency commented on its Q2 issuance which was revised to €68B in
debt vs. €66B prior estimate citing supplementary budget for payment into EMU
bailout fund
IMF official Lipton commented that risk aversion had somewhat diminished in
Asia as European steps helped to remove acute risks. He also noted that
inflation had declined in many countries and inflows were returning to Asia
Chinese press -commentary piece noted that China should cut interest rates in
the second quarter at the latest adding that the window for a rate cut was
moving closer, after easing inflation and weak exports intensified the market’s
concerns over China’s economic growth. The
article noted that China might only cut lending rates, or cut lending rates
more than deposit rates, to encourage loans help the banks to collect deposits.
The focus was on the major European PMI releases which came in below
expectations. This highlighted the concerns over the Chinese PMI data as it
reinforced global growth concerns. The risk aversion sentiment crept higher as
each data released seem to come in below expectations. The European economic
engine of Germany also faltered in its preliminary PMI manufacturing. The
EUR/USD slumped below 1.3150 ahead of the NY morning as a result and off over
70 pips from its Asian opening levels.
Weaker UK retail sales data and lower back-month revision help the GBP to
soften. The GBP/USD probed below 1.58 handle.
Japan’s trade deficit was a driving force of the yen’s fall earlier this year,
but the [latest] data suggested that the yen’s sustained weakness might be
questioned. The rise in risk sentiment was another factor that contributed to
broad JPY currency strength in the session.
Papers:
The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard suggested that concerns continue to
remain about the health of EU banks.
Regarding the Fed Chairman Bernanke comments in which he said that more needs
to be done to strengthen the EU banking system, he suggested that the US stress
tests of its banks were stricter than the tests conducted on EU banks.
European banks have a loan-to-deposit-ratio of about 1.3, which is in line with
the level of Japanese banks during the bubble years in Japan. US banks have a
ratio of about 0.7, which is near historical norms.
There is speculation that the ECB could seek to end its €40B covered bond
purchase program. In the FT, it was suggested that when the ECB decides to
unwind its emergency measures, it could decide to first end the covered bond
purchase program. Demand from banks for the covered bond program has been
limited, amid improving market conditions.
Following the UK budget announcement, the former BoE member Blanchflower said
the OBR credibility is in tatters. He sees that the budget is fiscally neutral,
effectively more of the same, and expects little or no growth and rising
unemployment especially among the young. He suggested that the Chancellor of the
Exchequer continues to have no growth plan.
The ratings agency Fitch noted that the UK Budget will have no affect on its
AAA rating. The Fitch official said, ‘As expected, the announcement did not
contain unfunded tax and spending measures while the updated economic and
fiscal forecasts are marginally better than forecast in the Autumn Statement’.
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morning we will have all eyes on Jobless Claims News, which has been the
most-watched event for day traders in 2012.
The day begins with 8:30 Jobless Claims here in the US and Canada, so we
will be watching for this early morning trading opportunities.
EST this morning we have the January Home Price Index and Leading Indicators,
both very MINOR news events, and we wont expect to see much action off this
news.
am EST has another somewhat-minor news event that we will watch for, the Euro
Zone Consumer Confidence. Consumer
Confidence is a HUGE reason for economic recovery and a lot of traders will be
watching this report today after last night’s news from the UK.
EST this afternoon we have Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke back in front of the
microphone again, this time speaking at George Washington University, so this
will be NOTHING like his testimony earlier this week, we won’t expect to see
much of a reaction to this, unless he starts talking about Jobs, Debt, etc,
which he most likely will not.
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8:00 (BR) Brazil Mar IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
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8:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Unemployment Rate: 5.9%e v 5.5% prior
– 8:30 (CA) Canada Jan
Retail Sales M/M: +1.8%e v -0.2% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: +0.5%e v
0.0% prior
– 8:30 (US) Initial
Jobless Claims: 350Ke v 351K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.380Me v 3.343M prior
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8:40 (SE) Sweden Central Bank member Wickman-Parak
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9:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with union leaders
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9:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
– 10:00 (US) Jan House
Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior
– 10:00 (US) Feb
Leading Indicators: 0.6%e v 0.4% prior
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10:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Business Confidence: -6.5e v -7.7 prior
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10:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2013,2014 and 2015 Notes
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10:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2018 and 2023 bonds
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10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
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11:00 (EU) Euro Zone Mar Advanced Consumer Confidence: -19.8e v -20.3 prior
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11:00 (US) US Treasury 2-year, 5-year and 7-year Note refunding announcement
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11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.75-2.25B in Notes
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12:00 (CO) Colombia Q4 GDP Y/Y: 5.8%e v 7.7% prior; 2011 GDP Annualized: 5.8%e
v % prior
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12:30 (UR) Ukraine to sell 6-Month and 12-Month bills
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12:30 (UR) Ukraine to sell 2014 and 2015 Bonds
– 12:45 (US) Fed
Chairman Bernanke gives lecture at George Washington University
– 12:45 (EU) EU
President Van Rompuy
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13:00 (EU) EU Foreign Ministers meet Candidate-Country Officials
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13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year TIPS Reopening
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13:30 (CH) SNB member Danthine makes speech in Zurich
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14:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU campain event
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14:30 (EU) ECB member Gonzalez-Paramo
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16:00 (US) Chicago Fed’s Evans speaks at Brookings on Communication
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20:00 (US) Fed’s Bullard speaks at Investment Conference in Hong Kong
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21:35 (CN) China Mar MNI Flash Business
Sentiment Survey
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22:00 (CN) China Feb Conference Board Leading Economic Index
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