Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll Trading Strategy | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 01/05/17

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Crude Oil is bullish and trying to re-test today’s high and possibly last week’s high as the buyers regained control after today’s inventory report. 

E-Mini S&P is bullish, and just like Crude Oil, is trying to re-test today’s highs after the weekly inventory report gave the buyers an opportunity to ‘buy low’ after a deep pullback. 

Gold is bullish and rotating off the high of a bull spike & channel after completing the ‘Double-Up’ target late in the session today. 

Euro is bullish and trading at the highs of a spike & range after the bulls successfully reached their ‘Double-Up’ target earlier today. 

FDAX is trading sideways inside a trading-range after another low-volume session today. 

Crude Oil

Crude Oil is bullish and trying to re-test today’s high and possibly last week’s high as the buyers regained control after today’s weekly inventory report earlier today.  The bulls have control, but if you weren’t able to grab that pullback around 2pm EST you’re now trying to ‘buy high’, which tells us to stay patient, wait for a correction, and look for buying opportunities on the way back to the highs again.  If we don’t get a pullback, then we look for traps below prior swings, anything to avoid ‘buying high’, which is always the lowest reliable trade you can take.  

E-Mini S&P

E-Mini S&P is bullish, and just like Crude Oil, is trying to re-test today’s highs after the weekly inventory report gave the buyers an opportunity to ‘buy low’ after a deep pullback earlier today.  The bulls have control, but we’re getting too close to the highs to keep buying, so we need to stay patient, wait for a pullback to support levels below, and grab the move going back to re-test the highs.  If price runs higher without pulling back, then our plan is to avoid chasing the move and focus on traps at previous levels of support.

Gold

Gold is bullish and rotating off the high of a bull spike & channel after completing the ‘Double-Up’ target late in the session today.  The bulls have control, and the target is to go back and test the highs, but we don’t want to buy into the ‘Double-Up’ resistance and the most reliable buying opportunities will come down at the low of the channel or at support levels below the channel.  We have a lot of open space below us, which gives the sellers a clear window of opportunity down to the ‘correction zone’ at 71.5, but remember this market is bullish until the bears take control, which requires a successful breakout-pullback below the moving-average and the proper entry trigger, so stay patient to the sell side until we get proof.

Euro

Euro is bullish and trading at the highs of a spike & range after the bulls successfully reached their ‘Double-Up’ target earlier in today’ session.  The bulls have control, but such a strong move higher today likely left a lot of buyers waiting for a pullback which tells us that we need to either get the deep pullback to ‘buy low’ or see continued strength and a successful breakout-pullback to buy on the way to the measured-move target waiting overhead.  The low of the ‘hidden channel’ makes for a great buying opportunities, but all we really need to is to see price get below this small trading-range to find buyers waiting.  Sellers may have a window of opportunity below the previous measured-move, but they need to take control first with a new lower-low and a successful breakout-pullback for a move going down to the low of the ‘hidden channel’.

FDAX

FDAX is trading sideways inside a trading-range after another low-volume session today.  The FDAX had a strong move on Monday which was clearly rejected by the bulls, and price has been slowly pulling back all week to find a price that buyers are willing to pay again.  The trading-range tells us to look for range rotation, the ‘2-Try Rule’, and failure set-ups as we look for opportunities to fade the breakouts, buying the lows, selling the highs, and avoiding the middle until we can get a strong enough breakout to entice people back into this trend again.