September 20, 2010

Dollar Index told Scalpers and Day Traders where to buy crude,Russell, & gold

– Dollar index is trading inside the trading range from last week (inside day)

o This tells us that the rest of our markets will likely also be sideways and consolidated.

o The best option is to wait for the dollar to breakout, and then look to trade with the increased trading range on other markets.

– Crude Oil had contract rollover today, to the 11-10 contract

o We see a horseshoe pattern as the price dropped on Friday, giving us lots of overhead resistance from the trend lines we draw at the swing lows.

o We also notice a bullish channel on the 34 range chart

 Check the blog for horseshoe and channel:

o With the crude oil market at the lows of the channel, we are looking to buy these lows, and then sell the highs if we end up at the top of the channel.

 Swing and position traders will look to buy above 75.35, buying the lows of the channel
 Day traders and scalpers have opportunity

• Sell on the way down below 74.94 to test the lows
• Buy the lows @ 74.10

o We open our fast timeframe chart and we see a bearish channel pattern, the opposite to what we saw on the slower timeframe (34 range)

 This tells us the scalpers and day traders are going to sell the highs of the shorter term downward trending channel.

o Sitting on hands @ 900am est on crude because the fast timeframe is in the middle of the channel and trading around the OPEN of the day.

o 13-range on crude oil shows us trading in the middle of the bearish channel pattern, and in the middle of the sideways trading range

 We want to avoid the middle of any range, so the 13-range has nothing to offer us at the moment.

 The best entries on crude oil for day traders this morning will be sell the highs of 75.35, and buy the lows of 74.20.

– Gold futures are still trading in the same bullish channel from last week

o Trading at the all-time highs, we want to sell the highs of the channel, and buy the lows.

o We also see a bullish wedge pattern, and we are trading in the middle of the wedge, so be careful, avoid the middle.

1000am EST

– We took the breaker long on the 13-range for a 69 tick winner buying crude as the dollar was dropping.

– Now the highs of the channel are being tested, and we are thinking to get short below 74.55, but the dollar is still dropping, so we are getting mixed signals.

o Dropping dollar = rising crude
o Crude @ highs = looking for shorts
o So what do we do? Read the tape and the SPEED of the tape looking for clues.

    schooloftrade

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