July 11, 2012

Dollar Index & Crude Oil Futures technical analysis

730am EST 

The heat map this morning tells us the dollar index is moving
lower, and outside the 0.0-0.2% range we can use the dollar index correlation
with confidence today until something changes. 

The dollar index is still chopping around in
this very clear sideways trading range. 
The
dollar index is at the highs of the price wedge on the 144range chart, and we
can see the 21-range chart confirms we’re narrow and sideways in the short-term-trend.  The key levels on the dollar index today will
be the PLOD 83.135, the trend line resistance around 83.600 and of course the trigger-zone
support below us at 82.570.  The key
today for ALL of the markets we trade will be to get this dollar index to push
OUTSIDE of this range.  We don’t know if
the attempt to push higher or lower will be successful or not, but we need
price to at least ATTEMPT the breakout. 
We will be watching for market personality clues from the dollar index this
morning.

 Crude Oil futures are trading in a narrow range this morning
along with the dollar index futures
.  We
can see the Inside trading day, the price wedge structure. Trigger-zone support
at 83.15, and trigger-zone resistance around 88.00 big round number.  This tells us two things;  first we know the price wedge tells us to buy
the lows/support and sell the highs/resistance. 
Second, we know if we break out of this trading range above PHOD or
below PLOD we will most likely see a price reversal trading opportunity.  

On Tuesday we
saw exactly the same scenario, allowing us to sell the highs and buy the lows, fade-the-breakouts
when it tried to move lower.  Remember,
today is Wednesday so we have Crude Oil Inventories to worry about, which may
have lower volume on CRUDE ahead of this news, we will be watching this
closely, and will be discussing our day trading strategy for trading
inventories at 1015am EST today in our live trade room.

    schooloftrade

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