Day Trading Strategy Prepares for Jobless Claims ahead of Non Farm Payrolls on Friday

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The James’ Report:  Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders

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Professional traders have mastered the
art of listening first, and reacting second. 
New day traders have the tendency to react first, and then try and make
sense of the markets afterwards, and this has proven to be a difficult way to
succeed.  A professional traders
understands that in order to react in the most efficient manner possible we
must first understand what the market is trying to tell us, which may take more
listening than we think.  When was the
last time you spent the morning listening to what the market was telling you? 



Heat Map Futures

–
Rumors that PBoC could cut RRR and/or widen its currency trading band

–
Australia Unemployment data softer than expectations

–
Japanese current account hits record deficit

–
Greek PSI participation deadline later today; EU official remain optimistic on
the take-up; Results set for release on Friday at 0600GMT

–
No surprises expected at BOE and ECB monetary policy meetings

–
Greece gov’t said to announce PSI results Friday, March 9th at 01:00 ET (06:00
GMT)

–
German Econ Advisor Bofinger commented that the Greek debt swaps would go
through but the country’s debt burden would remain huge. He stressed that
Greece needed to rethink its strategy and implement a real debt relief plan
over the next year

–
Former ECB member Stark commented in the German press that the quality of ECB
balance sheet was alarming Stark noted that the Eurosystem’s balance sheet was
not only gigantic in its dimension but also alarming in its quality. He added
that the structure of the balance sheet was a cause for concern because
increasingly short-term debt claims were being replaced by long-term ones and
this would make it more difficult for the bank to reverse its loose monetary
policy

–
Spain regions said to be unable to meet deficit target (This would contradict
weekend press that all 17 regions would target budget deficits of 1.5% of GDP.

–
Risk appetite was switching into a higher gear throughout the European morning.
The focus remained on the Greek PSI and also on the ECB monthly press
conference.

–  There were numerous factors attributed to the
jubilant sentiment and this paved the way for a weaker USD and JPY currency
against the European pairs. There was market chatter circulating of a higher
PSI acceptance level after reports surfaced that the debt swap results would be
released on Friday, March 9th at 06:00 GMT. Earlier today there were rumors of
a potential China PBoC RRR  cut and
lastly a press report from Wed that the Fed officials was said to be
considering a sterilization option for potential future bond purchases was
getting further circulation this session.

–
Risk appetite had momentum coming into the session after various EU officials
suggested sufficient support for Greece PSI and the country would to be able to
enforce CAC (collective action clauses). 

–
The ECB press conference was likely to have Draghi throw the ball back to EU
govts for reforms after the central bank performed the second 3-year LTRO
operation last month.

–
The EUR/USD was holding above the 1.32 level as the NY morning approached while
EUR/JPY cross tested 107.60

–
The ECB’s Mersch was said to be the one favored to replace Gonzalez-Paramo. The
press article noted that Mersch is backed by Germany, France and other members
that include Finland, Austria and Netherlands. Naming Mersch to the post would
mean supporting criticism voiced by Bundesbank’s chief Jens Weidmann. He has
stated the ECB very carelessly handed hundreds of billions of euros to ailing
nations while accepting dubious guarantees in return.

–
Following reports from the 6th of March that Spain had reached an agreement
with its regions on budget cuts, Spain press circulated reports that the
regions cannot meet the deficit targets.

–
The Telegraph analyzes the private sector holders of Greece’s debt. Of the estimated
€206B in debt, hedge funds and retail investors may hold about €54B, Greek
banks €42B, Greek social security funds €20B, other Greek domestic accounts
€10B, other European banks €30B, European insurers €10B, other European
institutions €15B, other overseas and miscellaneous holders €25B.

–
Volumes in foreign currency trading declined to six-year lows, as investors
have become increasingly nervous from trading the euro, and central banks
continued to maintain a hold on the value of their currencies – FT

–
The Irish statistics department announced that employment increased by 10,000
in Q4 of last year for the time since 2007 although the average employment
level for the entire year was approximately 38,100 lower year-on-year.

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All
eyes are on the weekly jobless claims report this morning at 830am EST.  the last 4 weeks have proven to show lower
jobless claims however we have seen a little sluggishness in the market’s
acceptance of these reports due to concerns that it may not be an accurate look
at the job market itself.  Are people
leaving unemployment benefits because they are finding jobs or because they are
giving up or losing the 99-week benefits given by the US Government?  We will see more leading up to the Non Farm
Payrolls on Friday this morning as well, so expect the end of the morning
around 1130am EST to be quite as traders take off early before Friday’s major
news.

–
8:15 (CA) Canada Feb Housing Starts: 200Ke v 198.0K prior (revised from 197.9K)

–
8:30 (CA) Canada Jan New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y:
2.5%e v 2.5% prior

–
8:30 (US) Jobless Claims: 351ke v 351K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.40Me
v 3.418M prior

–
8:30 (EU)  ECB chief Draghi holds monthly
post rate decision press Conference;

–
9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest
Rate unchanged at 1.00%

–
9:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e vs.
4.1% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior

–
9:00 (BR) Brazil Jan CNI Capacity Utilization: 81.7%e v 81.3% prior

–
9:30 (US) Commercial Paper Outstanding

–
10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories

–
12:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble attends podium on Theme of Europe:
Berlin    

–
15:00 (GR) Deadline for bond holders to participate in Greece PSI debt swap

–
16:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Producer Price Index Y/Y: No est v 3.4% prior

–
18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to XXX the
Reference Rate from the current 4.25% level

–
20:30 (CN) China Feb Producer Price Index Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.7% prior

–
20:30 (CN) China Feb Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 3.4%e v 4.5% prior

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