November 4, 2011

Day Trading Strategies for Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures

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The James’ Report:  Professional Resources for Professional Traders

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Let’s review today’s day trading strategies together in the trade room 

Dollar Index tells us where the most important turning points, reversal points will be, watch these closely.

Dollar short term trend is bullish, sideways and forming a price wedge.  this wedge structure is a big red flag on the dollar index, so this needs to change before we start trading.

The Dollar Index Average true range is telling us to be patient this morning.  I want to compare right now @ 800am to earlier in the week.  I want rising ATR

Crude Oil Futures trading at the highs of two channels so we look to sell these highs, and beware getting stuck at the bull channel lows, and the bear channel highs.

Crude Oil 34range chart shows a new recent bull channel, as well as the trigger zone target below us for the short side.

UPDATE on the Crude Oil 34range.  Buy channel lows, sell channel highs

Euro is trading at the PHOD and we want to sell this range highs below the trigger line support around 3800.  Notice the big candlestick wicks that tell us the buyers failed, and to look to sell.

Russell is trading in a very obvious price wedge and inside day, so sell the highs and buy the lows, avoid the fake-out breakouts.

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Around the Globe this morning:

– European shares emerged from the red in today’s session after Greece dropped the unpopular referendum plan. Papandreou instead opted for political consensus and is ready to negotiate a coalition government if his socialist allies give him the confidence vote. Papandreou’s move however has increased chances that the confidence vote will fail creating uncertainties that the government itself may collapse pushing farther the availability of the bailout money, Equities were also sustained by ECB’s rate cut yesterday. Gains were however capped ahead of US employment numbers.

– The G20 was said to be weighing three options for the IMF to help the Euro Zone with one option being the IMF would give Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) to Euro Zone countries would not  having IMF funds earmarked for Euro Zone countries.

– Greece confidence vote after markets close today, Unity Gov’t likely and no referendum vote

– US payroll data the highlight of the NY morning

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Today’s Economic News:

Our day trading strategies today will depend on the news, and all eyes will be on the US NonFarm payrolls today.  Friday’s with NFP are always exciting to trade, so we will be watching closely this morning.

The day begins with 830am NonFarm Payrolls, which means the markets will be sloppy until just after the news comes out.  After 830am if the news was within expectations the market will likely be sideways and sloppy as the markets already priced in the news ahead of it.  If the news comes out unexpectedly higher or lower we then expect a very fast, violent reaction to the news, and we need to be careful.  The key to NonFarm Payrolls is finding the best LOCATIONS to take the trades, and then waiting patiently for price to come to YOU, rather than trying to chase after big moves that occur on news events like NFP.  Stay focused on following your plan.

We then move through 930am EST and the US Market Open, then into 1000am news from CAD regarding Ivey PMI.

We will expect the morning to come to an end earlier on a Friday, and with the G20 summit this weekend and the confidence vote in Europe scheduled for this evening we could see markets hit the exits early today, so we’re looking for clues when the morning is over just after 1045am EST this morning.  Remember to look for the change in market personality sometime around 1030am and looking for really good reasons to trade after 1100am EST today.

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I’m always improving this prep, I appreciate your feedback, please post it here!

    schooloftrade

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