January 30, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
—————————————————————————————
The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
—————————————————————————————
***Notes/Observations
from around the world***
from around the world***
–
EU Leader meet in Brussels on fiscal compact treaty and ESM facility
EU Leader meet in Brussels on fiscal compact treaty and ESM facility
–
France President proposes VAT increase and financial tax ahead of spring
elections
France President proposes VAT increase and financial tax ahead of spring
elections
–
Troika officials increased their estimates for the 2nd bailout package for
Greece by €15B to €145B due to deteriorating economic situation
Troika officials increased their estimates for the 2nd bailout package for
Greece by €15B to €145B due to deteriorating economic situation
–
European shares declined during the session pressured by the financial sector
as Greece failed to reach a final agreement with its private creditors. The
debt talks, now at a tentative stage, come at a crucial time ahead of the EU’s
first 2012 summit which will take place today in Brussels. EU leaders are
expected to finalize its austerity measures package but the discussion may
center around a deal on PSI.
European shares declined during the session pressured by the financial sector
as Greece failed to reach a final agreement with its private creditors. The
debt talks, now at a tentative stage, come at a crucial time ahead of the EU’s
first 2012 summit which will take place today in Brussels. EU leaders are
expected to finalize its austerity measures package but the discussion may
center around a deal on PSI.
Speakers:
–
EU Leader Summit draft was circulated by the press which noted that the leaders
to pledge to take growth enhancing measures (in line with recent leader
commentary on themes). The leaders would praise ECB long term loan operation in
helping to avert a credit crunch and guard against de-leveraging caused by bank
recapitalizations. It would consider higher lending ceiling for EU investment
bank. The Fiscal pact would retain automatic correction mechanism and give EU
Court of Justice a role in judging respect for rules. It foresaw a limit of
0.5% on structural deficits (as expected). The EU fiscal pact to take effect
once 12 euro zone members ratify and only those countries that ratify fiscal
compact could access ESM
EU Leader Summit draft was circulated by the press which noted that the leaders
to pledge to take growth enhancing measures (in line with recent leader
commentary on themes). The leaders would praise ECB long term loan operation in
helping to avert a credit crunch and guard against de-leveraging caused by bank
recapitalizations. It would consider higher lending ceiling for EU investment
bank. The Fiscal pact would retain automatic correction mechanism and give EU
Court of Justice a role in judging respect for rules. It foresaw a limit of
0.5% on structural deficits (as expected). The EU fiscal pact to take effect
once 12 euro zone members ratify and only those countries that ratify fiscal
compact could access ESM
–
ECB’s Makuch commented that he saw some probability of recession in the Euro
Area. He added that that Greek debt write-down was an exceptional situation and
not likely to occur elsewhere. The aim was to stabilize the Greek situation nd
reiterated view that governments are responsible for solution to debt crisis
ECB’s Makuch commented that he saw some probability of recession in the Euro
Area. He added that that Greek debt write-down was an exceptional situation and
not likely to occur elsewhere. The aim was to stabilize the Greek situation nd
reiterated view that governments are responsible for solution to debt crisis
–
German Fin Ministry official Kothaus commented that Greece had not fully put in
place their reforms and could not yet say whether Greek debt was sustainable
German Fin Ministry official Kothaus commented that Greece had not fully put in
place their reforms and could not yet say whether Greek debt was sustainable
–
Ireland Min Creighton commented that he was hopeful the fiscal compact treaty
would be “signed off as is” and expressed satisfaction with the text
of treaty. The govt still has to decide on referendum on EU fiscal union
cautioning that if voters rejected fiscal treaties it would be difficult for
Ireland to remain in the euro.
Ireland Min Creighton commented that he was hopeful the fiscal compact treaty
would be “signed off as is” and expressed satisfaction with the text
of treaty. The govt still has to decide on referendum on EU fiscal union
cautioning that if voters rejected fiscal treaties it would be difficult for
Ireland to remain in the euro.
–
IMF commented on Turkey and recommended a tighter fiscal policy for country as
monetary policy had been overburdened
IMF commented on Turkey and recommended a tighter fiscal policy for country as
monetary policy had been overburdened
–
Morgan Stanley analyst commented on Hungary and forecasted that the country
would obtain an IMF loan by April and envisioned it entailing a ‘mini Vienna
2’. The analyst also stated that the recent string of rate hikes by the central
bank might be near an end.
Morgan Stanley analyst commented on Hungary and forecasted that the country
would obtain an IMF loan by April and envisioned it entailing a ‘mini Vienna
2’. The analyst also stated that the recent string of rate hikes by the central
bank might be near an end.
Currencies:
–
Risk aversion was a bit prevalent during the session. Dealers noted that the Shanghai Composite
ended session -1.5% at 2,285 with the lack of any change in PBoC rate policy
during the lunar New Year holiday used as an initial excuse.
Risk aversion was a bit prevalent during the session. Dealers noted that the Shanghai Composite
ended session -1.5% at 2,285 with the lack of any change in PBoC rate policy
during the lunar New Year holiday used as an initial excuse.
–
The peripheral spread were sharply wider in the session with renewed concerns
over Portugal. The 10-year Portuguese/German Gov’t bond spread was at approx
1,5660bp for fresh EMU record highs, wider by almost 55bps in the session. The
Italian auction results did not provide any relief in the aversion sentiment
with the Italian 10-year yild rising by several basis points to 6.20% during
post auction trading.
The peripheral spread were sharply wider in the session with renewed concerns
over Portugal. The 10-year Portuguese/German Gov’t bond spread was at approx
1,5660bp for fresh EMU record highs, wider by almost 55bps in the session. The
Italian auction results did not provide any relief in the aversion sentiment
with the Italian 10-year yild rising by several basis points to 6.20% during
post auction trading.
–
The EUR/USD ended last week at the upper end of its technical rebound of 1.3230
area and traded drifted down towards the
1.3130 ahead of Italian 4-part
bond auction and EU Leader Summit.
The EUR/USD ended last week at the upper end of its technical rebound of 1.3230
area and traded drifted down towards the
1.3130 ahead of Italian 4-part
bond auction and EU Leader Summit.
Political/
In the Papers:
In the Papers:
–
The FT commented on the recent rebound in EU bank bonds, noting that due
largely to measures by the ECB, European financial companies bonds have
returned about 3.5% so far for January versus about 3% for US financial debt.
Amid the rise in European bank bonds, the iTraxx Senior European Financials
Index has declined to about 215bps from 340bps in November, implying lower
credit risks for EU banks.
The FT commented on the recent rebound in EU bank bonds, noting that due
largely to measures by the ECB, European financial companies bonds have
returned about 3.5% so far for January versus about 3% for US financial debt.
Amid the rise in European bank bonds, the iTraxx Senior European Financials
Index has declined to about 215bps from 340bps in November, implying lower
credit risks for EU banks.
–
The Telegraph’s Evans-Pritchard commented on whether lending measures by the
ECB can help prevent a credit crunch in the EU. In December, credit to
households and firms contracted by €90 billion, which is the largest monthly
drop since the Euro was launched. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard warned
that the deleveraging by banks in EU, could lead to a dangerous downward spiral
for the financial system and possibly a disorderly default.
The Telegraph’s Evans-Pritchard commented on whether lending measures by the
ECB can help prevent a credit crunch in the EU. In December, credit to
households and firms contracted by €90 billion, which is the largest monthly
drop since the Euro was launched. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard warned
that the deleveraging by banks in EU, could lead to a dangerous downward spiral
for the financial system and possibly a disorderly default.
–
Following the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Harvard economist
Rogoff said that he sees a probable restructuring of Irish bank debt, and wider
Greek and Portuguese debt cuts to occur. He added ‘we are going to need
restructuring in Greece and Portugal is just clear, probably also in Ireland,
where it would be enough to do the bank debt; in Spain probably as well, if you
include the private-sector debt and the big banks. Italy is a borderline case,
where it may just be a liquidity issue’.
Following the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Harvard economist
Rogoff said that he sees a probable restructuring of Irish bank debt, and wider
Greek and Portuguese debt cuts to occur. He added ‘we are going to need
restructuring in Greece and Portugal is just clear, probably also in Ireland,
where it would be enough to do the bank debt; in Spain probably as well, if you
include the private-sector debt and the big banks. Italy is a borderline case,
where it may just be a liquidity issue’.
–
Credit rating agency Moody’s stated that EU banks are likely to rely more upon
ECB funding which is seen as a credit negative. In particular, Spain’s
deteriorating growth prospects are complicating its fiscal consolidation. The
recent weak economic forecast of the Bank of Spain is a credit negative. In
Germany, the financial market stabilization act was seen as providing temporary
relief to banks.
Credit rating agency Moody’s stated that EU banks are likely to rely more upon
ECB funding which is seen as a credit negative. In particular, Spain’s
deteriorating growth prospects are complicating its fiscal consolidation. The
recent weak economic forecast of the Bank of Spain is a credit negative. In
Germany, the financial market stabilization act was seen as providing temporary
relief to banks.
—————————————————————————————
Today’s Economic News:
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
start our week with news from the US regarding personal income and personal
spending, which is a major figure for economist and professional traders alike.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
start our week with news from the US regarding personal income and personal
spending, which is a major figure for economist and professional traders alike.
830am
EST we will see income and spending and if you look at the charts posted below
we can see personal income has seen a steady drop over the past 2 years, with a
very steep drop over 6 months. The
reason for this is clearly personal income, which has seen the same type of
drop and estimates of today’s news support this continuing trend. Remember that we saw consumer confidence
numbers higher than estimates last week, and this may bleed over into personal
spending, we shall see if the consumer sentiment that was in the market last
week is spreading into the wallet of the average consumer today at 830am EST.
EST we will see income and spending and if you look at the charts posted below
we can see personal income has seen a steady drop over the past 2 years, with a
very steep drop over 6 months. The
reason for this is clearly personal income, which has seen the same type of
drop and estimates of today’s news support this continuing trend. Remember that we saw consumer confidence
numbers higher than estimates last week, and this may bleed over into personal
spending, we shall see if the consumer sentiment that was in the market last
week is spreading into the wallet of the average consumer today at 830am EST.
We
then move into 930am EST where the US markets will open and then into the
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, which is not the biggest news this morning for
most traders, however we always watch the manufacturing data for interests in crude
oil futures and how they will react later in the week to inventory data. Watch these manufacturing indexes closely and
we will use these pieces of information later in the week to interpret the
inventory report on Wednesday @ 1030am EST.
then move into 930am EST where the US markets will open and then into the
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, which is not the biggest news this morning for
most traders, however we always watch the manufacturing data for interests in crude
oil futures and how they will react later in the week to inventory data. Watch these manufacturing indexes closely and
we will use these pieces of information later in the week to interpret the
inventory report on Wednesday @ 1030am EST.
One
thing we must remember this morning is that today is a Monday, so we need to
take it lightly until we see market personality, and then we will start seeing
the best opportunities. Let’s get into
the rhythm of the morning first, and look for the best patterns of the morning
after 930am EST.
thing we must remember this morning is that today is a Monday, so we need to
take it lightly until we see market personality, and then we will start seeing
the best opportunities. Let’s get into
the rhythm of the morning first, and look for the best patterns of the morning
after 930am EST.
Please SHARE this resource with
friends, they want to learn this too!
—————————————————————————————
I use TradeTheNews.com for my live news data, and
I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
Trial of this service by following this link: https://www.tradethenews.com/?affiliate=sot
I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
Trial of this service by following this link: https://www.tradethenews.com/?affiliate=sot
I’m
always improving this prep, I appreciate your feedback, please post it here!
