January 20, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
“Remember to find a way
to smile today, there’s always a reason.
We’re not here for a long time, we’re here for a GOOD time”
to smile today, there’s always a reason.
We’re not here for a long time, we’re here for a GOOD time”
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***Notes
from around the world***
from around the world***
–
Greece pushes to reach agreement in Private Sector Involvement (PSI)with Monday
seen as the pivotal day
Greece pushes to reach agreement in Private Sector Involvement (PSI)with Monday
seen as the pivotal day
–
Today is the deadline for European bank to submit capital raising plans to EBA
Today is the deadline for European bank to submit capital raising plans to EBA
–
Jan China manufacturing PMI 48.8 vs 48.7 in Dec (third straight month of
contraction)
Jan China manufacturing PMI 48.8 vs 48.7 in Dec (third straight month of
contraction)
–
Taiwan Export order decline for the first time in 2 years
Taiwan Export order decline for the first time in 2 years
– China begins week
long lunar new year holiday
long lunar new year holiday
–
European shares dipped during the session, presumably on profit taking, after a
week of solid gains which culminated in a 5-month high on Thursday. US initial
jobless claims fell to a 4-year low while in Europe, Greece is continuing its
talks with private investors. Peripheral bond auctions were also successful
despite recent sovereign downgrades.
European shares dipped during the session, presumably on profit taking, after a
week of solid gains which culminated in a 5-month high on Thursday. US initial
jobless claims fell to a 4-year low while in Europe, Greece is continuing its
talks with private investors. Peripheral bond auctions were also successful
despite recent sovereign downgrades.
Speakers:
–
BoE’s Broadbent stated that he did not pre-commit to QE decisions and votes
each month on stock of asset purchases. Gilt purchases speed not relevant to
his QE decision. He noted that the downside risks had lessen slightly in past 6
months due to actions by central banks and had not seen what was most feared
about the EU. He saw household income and growth to improve in H2 and the
degree of fiscal tightening to ease. BoE to maintain GDP forecast of flat
growth for both Q4, Q1 quarters as near term output looked slightly weaker but
Q1 seemed marginally stronger.
BoE’s Broadbent stated that he did not pre-commit to QE decisions and votes
each month on stock of asset purchases. Gilt purchases speed not relevant to
his QE decision. He noted that the downside risks had lessen slightly in past 6
months due to actions by central banks and had not seen what was most feared
about the EU. He saw household income and growth to improve in H2 and the
degree of fiscal tightening to ease. BoE to maintain GDP forecast of flat
growth for both Q4, Q1 quarters as near term output looked slightly weaker but
Q1 seemed marginally stronger.
–
German Fin Min Schaeuble commented in the German press that the economic
recovery would be a ‘long road’ ahead. He stressed that Italy needed to lower
its debt as it has been avoiding this since the 1990s. He reiterated the German
govt view that Europe could not solve its crisis in ‘one go’
German Fin Min Schaeuble commented in the German press that the economic
recovery would be a ‘long road’ ahead. He stressed that Italy needed to lower
its debt as it has been avoiding this since the 1990s. He reiterated the German
govt view that Europe could not solve its crisis in ‘one go’
–
German Coalition MP reiterated the view that Germany should not bring forward
ESM payments without participating countries
German Coalition MP reiterated the view that Germany should not bring forward
ESM payments without participating countries
–
BOE Trends in Lending Report noted that bank Long term funding markets were
challenging in Q4 and higher funding costs fed into corporate loan pricing.
Write-offs were stable in Q4 and arrears were seen stable but might pick up in
late 2012
BOE Trends in Lending Report noted that bank Long term funding markets were
challenging in Q4 and higher funding costs fed into corporate loan pricing.
Write-offs were stable in Q4 and arrears were seen stable but might pick up in
late 2012
–
Spain to maintain its 2012 budget deficit target of 4.4% to GDP (refutes
earlier press reports that Budget Minister Montoro stated that the country
might miss its 2012 deficit target.
Spain to maintain its 2012 budget deficit target of 4.4% to GDP (refutes
earlier press reports that Budget Minister Montoro stated that the country
might miss its 2012 deficit target.
–
Portugal PM Coelho commented that it must continue with bailout plan despite
market uncertainty
Portugal PM Coelho commented that it must continue with bailout plan despite
market uncertainty
–
Poland Central Bank’s Chonja-Duch commented that Polish 2011 GDP was seen at 4%
or higher and that the recent December output was positive. She noted that the
Polish Central Bank should keep interest rates steady through March. The Zloty
currency was still in an appreciation trend with EUR/PLN at 4.0 seen reflecting
fundamentals (currently at 4.30)
Poland Central Bank’s Chonja-Duch commented that Polish 2011 GDP was seen at 4%
or higher and that the recent December output was positive. She noted that the
Polish Central Bank should keep interest rates steady through March. The Zloty
currency was still in an appreciation trend with EUR/PLN at 4.0 seen reflecting
fundamentals (currently at 4.30)
–
Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) stated that it would skip the planned auction on Feb
7th due to recent syndicated debt sale of 10-year and 50-year bonds
Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) stated that it would skip the planned auction on Feb
7th due to recent syndicated debt sale of 10-year and 50-year bonds
–
France President Sarkozy commented that the Euro Zone still faced danger and
stressed that swift action was needed from Greece to stem crisis. All must be
done to avoid military conflict in Iran and all must stop buying Iranian oil
(appeals to both China and Russia)
France President Sarkozy commented that the Euro Zone still faced danger and
stressed that swift action was needed from Greece to stem crisis. All must be
done to avoid military conflict in Iran and all must stop buying Iranian oil
(appeals to both China and Russia)
Currencies:
–
The USD gained over the course of the European morning with some concerns over
the looming EBA capital raising plan deadline. Cautious comments from German
Finance Minister Schaeuble also weighed against the recent euphoria of the
European debt auctions.
The USD gained over the course of the European morning with some concerns over
the looming EBA capital raising plan deadline. Cautious comments from German
Finance Minister Schaeuble also weighed against the recent euphoria of the
European debt auctions.
–
The EUR/USD approached the 1.30 handle in late Asian trading before
succumbing to selling pressures with
Middle Eastern names cited. EUR/JPY cross was above the 100 level in late Asian
and was around the 99.60 as the NY morning approached
The EUR/USD approached the 1.30 handle in late Asian trading before
succumbing to selling pressures with
Middle Eastern names cited. EUR/JPY cross was above the 100 level in late Asian
and was around the 99.60 as the NY morning approached
Political/
In the Papers:
In the Papers:
–
Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard looked at the recent rise in Portugal’s
bond yields and credit default swaps (CDS) and attributed some of the rise in
yields to forced selling after S&P cut the country’s rating to junk. Also,
cited concerns that Portugal’s fiscal cuts could negatively impact the
country’s growth, like in Greece.
Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard looked at the recent rise in Portugal’s
bond yields and credit default swaps (CDS) and attributed some of the rise in
yields to forced selling after S&P cut the country’s rating to junk. Also,
cited concerns that Portugal’s fiscal cuts could negatively impact the
country’s growth, like in Greece.
–
Citigroup Europe economist Jurgen Michels, expected Portugal’s economy to
contract by 5.8% in 2012, which is more pessimistic than the government’s
forecast. Portugal might not be able to significantly lower its debt levels,
unless it implemented a “sizeable” haircut; Expected a haircut of 35%
at the end of 2012 or in 2013.
Citigroup Europe economist Jurgen Michels, expected Portugal’s economy to
contract by 5.8% in 2012, which is more pessimistic than the government’s
forecast. Portugal might not be able to significantly lower its debt levels,
unless it implemented a “sizeable” haircut; Expected a haircut of 35%
at the end of 2012 or in 2013.
–
European officials have ruled out forced haircuts for Portuguese bondholders.
Portugal’s public debt was about 113% of GDP, while its total debt (including
private sector debt) was 360% of GDP. Suggested the high levels of private
sector debt in Portugal could make the banking system vulnerable to
deleveraging
European officials have ruled out forced haircuts for Portuguese bondholders.
Portugal’s public debt was about 113% of GDP, while its total debt (including
private sector debt) was 360% of GDP. Suggested the high levels of private
sector debt in Portugal could make the banking system vulnerable to
deleveraging
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Today’s Economic News:
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
have very little to work with, along with options expiration today.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
have very little to work with, along with options expiration today.
For
most day traders OPEX doesn’t mean much more than lower than expected volume,
and we only have to deal with this 1 day a month, so its not bad at all, but we
need to be aware that other traders may use this as a reason to trade lightly
this morning, and Fridays are always a little less consistent than other days
of the week. With that said, we have had
incredible Friday’s in the market on OPEX so we ALWAYS look forward to the opportunity.
most day traders OPEX doesn’t mean much more than lower than expected volume,
and we only have to deal with this 1 day a month, so its not bad at all, but we
need to be aware that other traders may use this as a reason to trade lightly
this morning, and Fridays are always a little less consistent than other days
of the week. With that said, we have had
incredible Friday’s in the market on OPEX so we ALWAYS look forward to the opportunity.
We
begin our day with a very minor wholesale sales report at 830am EST followed by
the open of the US Markets at 930am.
After the 930am EST open this morning you can set your clock for 1100am
EST and make sure you don’t trade passed that point on a Friday so keep an eye
on the clock. We have our biggest news
of the day at 1000am EST Existing Home Sales, and as you can see from the chart
below the recent stimulus, tax incentives and almost-free giveaways in the
housing market gave it a little boost into Q1 2011 but now into Q1 2012 we are
really seeing a downtrend. Will this
trend continue? Today will provide more
clues to that answer, but remember we really do not trust these numbers much
b/c we have seen so much manipulation from the NAR/NAHB/HUD and not to mention
the biggest banks in the US basically own all of them now and those banks are
owned by the Fed, which is now owned by our friends at Goldman Sachs. Come to think of it…GS is our biggest landlord
now huh?
begin our day with a very minor wholesale sales report at 830am EST followed by
the open of the US Markets at 930am.
After the 930am EST open this morning you can set your clock for 1100am
EST and make sure you don’t trade passed that point on a Friday so keep an eye
on the clock. We have our biggest news
of the day at 1000am EST Existing Home Sales, and as you can see from the chart
below the recent stimulus, tax incentives and almost-free giveaways in the
housing market gave it a little boost into Q1 2011 but now into Q1 2012 we are
really seeing a downtrend. Will this
trend continue? Today will provide more
clues to that answer, but remember we really do not trust these numbers much
b/c we have seen so much manipulation from the NAR/NAHB/HUD and not to mention
the biggest banks in the US basically own all of them now and those banks are
owned by the Fed, which is now owned by our friends at Goldman Sachs. Come to think of it…GS is our biggest landlord
now huh?
 |
| 10 Years Existing Home Sales Data |
 |
| 2 Year Existing Home Sales Data |
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| Today Day Trading News Strategy |
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I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
Trial of this service by following this link: https://www.tradethenews.com/?affiliate=sot
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