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Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
from around the world***
expected
close above 1300 since summer 2011
and Spain since the ratings cuts go reasonable well
– European shares climbed higher following recent news that Greece was working
with its lenders and that IMF would increase its lending resources by $500B.
The initial euphoria at the news has subsided given the reluctance of some
countries, namely US and Canada, to the potential increase. On a positive note,
Spanish auction were well received as Spain sold considerably higher than the
planned range.
Speakers: – ECB’s Asmussen
reiterated that the central bank’s extraordinary measure were strictly
temporary and that the govt bond purchase program could not last forever. He
did note that the ECB had many unconventional tools such as liquidity measures.
He supported strengthening and early introduction of ESM facility and that it
had many advantages over the EFSF. The ESM required high, stable firewalls and
that all members should contribute more capital to ESM.
Report echoes Draghi’s post rate decision commentary. The report reiterated
that CPI to stay above 2% in the short term and move back towards target in
medium term. The report also reiterated that downside risks to economic outlook
were substantial and that ongoing financial market tensions to dampen economic
activity. It did noted that it saw tentative signs of stabilization
commented that global imbalances played an important role in financial
stability. European members faced a moral hazard in buying stressed sovereign
debt and that non-European investors should purchases peripheral bonds to
diversify their portfolios. Global Investors should help to solve the debt
crisis in Europe and purchase more sovereign debt on long-term sustainability.
Monetary policy tools were not primarily financial stability tools- Slovakia
Fin Min Miklos commented that the combined EFSF and ESM capacity should not
exceed €500M and that the EFSF lending capacity should be sufficient for
ongoing programs despite the recent S&P downgrade
Venizelos confirmed that the final phase of Troika talks was related to new aid
will begin and that new EU-led aid deal would come with new terms. He
reiterated that the PSI debt swap talks were at a “critical” stage
in its economic outlook that it saw 2012 Germany exports rising 3% y/y and that
overall 2012 GDP growth of 1.0% was possible (compares to official German Govt
view of 0.75% growth)
zone could see a mild recession in the first half of 2012 with roughly a 40%
chance of deeper EU recession materializing
Survey of Bank Lending stated that household lending rose in quarter but saw
broadly unchanged household credit demand. Banks tightened household credit
standards in Q4 with tighter standards also seen in Q1
transfers to regions which miss spending target
commitment regarding contribution to IMF new round of fund raising but would consider
support for Europe’s effort to stabilize markets including bilateral loans to
IMF
view that it expected that six euro zone members currently on review to end
with downgrade of 1-2 notches in most states
noted that the Gov’t liquidity plans for the autonomous regions was
interesting- Fitch commented that an disorderly Greek default was not likely
commented that interest rates might remain unchanged during 2012
commented after its interest rate decision that its 2012 and 2013 inflation
target seen falling within lower half of the 3-5% range. It did see upside risk
to inflation from strong capital flows and geo-political issues with the main
risk being oil prices. The local economy would likely to face external
headwinds in 2012
commented that no one needed to be concerned about the Hormuz Strait but the
region was of importance to Iran and warned other Gulf nations not be to
dragged into conflict. He noted that the US was double-dealing with Iran as it
was flexing muscles but secretly asking for discussions. President Obama must
follow up letter with goodwill
Currencies:- The Euro
continued to grind higher against the major pairs against a more supportive
background. The recent disclosure that the IMF sought to raise its lending
resources and not complications from the Spanish and French bond auctions
helped the EUR/USD to probe above the 1.29 handle for fresh 2-week highs. The
technical picture was also more constructive for the Euro. The EUR/USD was
above the prior 3-month channel resistance line while EUR/JPY cross appeared to
have some potential of a weekly reversal after testing 11-year lows earlier this
month at 97.00. The cross probed the 99 handle during the session.
Political/ In the Papers:- In
an international study released by consultancy McKinsey, UK had the highest
level of debt following Japan. UK debt increased over the past three years to more
than 5x its economic output. At current trends, it would take until 2020 for
households to return debt levels to the pre-bubble trend. The report compares
major economies since 2008. The overall sentiment was positive for the US with
household debt possibly reaching sustainable levels in roughly two years or
slightly more compared to the UK where it will take many more years.
looked at the warning signs related to China’s economy. Unsold property
inventories in China have hit multi-year highs with more than 800K cars sitting
unsold in warehouses. According to former Chinese banking regulator Liu
Mingbank, orders for new ships have declined sharply. China’s property sector
makes up about 13% of GDP, which is in line with levels seen in Spain at the
peak of its property bubble. The extent of China’s property bubble and the
aggressive tightening measures by officials has raised concerns about whether
policy makers can engineer a ‘soft landing’.
banks, Commerzbank and Monte dei Paschi di Siena, are in danger as the Friday
deadline approaches. Regulators in Europe were reported to be certain that both
banks will not be able produce realistic plans to deal with capital deficits by
deadline on Friday; this exposes both banks to the risk of full or partial
nationalization. European official had said it is almost inevitable that
further injection of funds by the state will be required. please note that the
recent EBA tests found that 31 out of the 70 banks tested needed to raise a
total of €115B in new capital; European regulators gave banks until June, need
to submit a plan by deadline of Friday.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning we
have news that is normally scheduled for other days of the week and has been
pushed into today because of the holiday.
also know today will be contract
rollover on crude oil futures so we need to address that the very first
thing.
day trading strategy begins with news at 830am EST Jobless Claims (see the
chart below) and if you recall last week we saw some cooking of the books to prop
the data BELOW the emotional line in the sand of 400,000 here in the US. Last week we baraly made it below this level,
will we make it below the level for two weeks in a row? If we don’t the markets will read this as a
sign of a weakening economy and crude oil futures will drop in price on lower
demand.
next major news of the morning is the Philly Fed Manufacturign data, which has
been climbing as of recently, and remember when manufacturing data was released
for New York (empire State) earlier this week it was suprisingly higher than
expected. Lets see if the folks in the
city of brotherly love can do the same today.
Remember that manufacturing reports will have another big impact on crude
oil because of perception of demand in the market if these numbers are
increasing month to month.
finally remember we have a re-scheduled crude oil inventories number today @
1100am EST which will be a little different than normal. Crude oil futures traders are always watching
these closely so we always expect this data to move the markets. The key trading this news at 1100am EST today
will be to WAIT for the market to react to the news, not jumping into trades
right at the time the news is released simply because we THINK we know what
will happen. Repeat after me: I will wait for the reaction to ALL of this
news today and trade the reaction.
friends, they want to learn this too!
I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
Trial of this service by following this link: https://www.tradethenews.com/?affiliate=sot
I’m
always improving this prep, I appreciate your feedback, please post it here!
