January 18, 2012
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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***Notes/Observations
from around the world***
from around the world***
–
European shares traded cautiously albeit in positive territory following
bleaker outlook from the World Bank. The latter cut its growth outlook for 2012
and 2013 warning against weaker developing country growth and EU crisis. The
somber updated overshadowed more positive news regarding Greece whose
government is closing talks with creditors and will resume talks with the
Institute of International Finance in Athens today.
European shares traded cautiously albeit in positive territory following
bleaker outlook from the World Bank. The latter cut its growth outlook for 2012
and 2013 warning against weaker developing country growth and EU crisis. The
somber updated overshadowed more positive news regarding Greece whose
government is closing talks with creditors and will resume talks with the
Institute of International Finance in Athens today.
–
World Bank lowers 2012 and 2013 global growth forecasts
World Bank lowers 2012 and 2013 global growth forecasts
–
Goldman’s O’Neill: JPY currency is
probably 25% overvalued
Goldman’s O’Neill: JPY currency is
probably 25% overvalued
– China begins 10-day
Lunar New Year holiday break
Lunar New Year holiday break
– UK Jobless claims
comes in slightly better than expectations
comes in slightly better than expectations
–
IMF said to propose increasing lending resources by $1.0T and push for resource
plan by the Feb G20 meeting
IMF said to propose increasing lending resources by $1.0T and push for resource
plan by the Feb G20 meeting
–
Fitch director Settepani commented that a two-notch Italy sovereign downgrade
was possible and that the decision to be based upon financing levels
Fitch director Settepani commented that a two-notch Italy sovereign downgrade
was possible and that the decision to be based upon financing levels
–
Fitch Sovereign Director Parker commented that he was encouraged by steps taken
by Italy’s PM Monti but country must enact fiscal, structural reforms. He noted
that Italy was not an peripheral economy and was absolutely critical for Euro
zone future
Fitch Sovereign Director Parker commented that he was encouraged by steps taken
by Italy’s PM Monti but country must enact fiscal, structural reforms. He noted
that Italy was not an peripheral economy and was absolutely critical for Euro
zone future
– German Econ Ministry
updated its economic outlook which confirmed a cut
in the 2012 GDP view to 0.7% from 1.0% prior. Germany set its official 2013 GDP
growth outlook at +1.6%- German Econ Min Roesler commented that Govt to release
proposal to limit solar subsidies
updated its economic outlook which confirmed a cut
in the 2012 GDP view to 0.7% from 1.0% prior. Germany set its official 2013 GDP
growth outlook at +1.6%- German Econ Min Roesler commented that Govt to release
proposal to limit solar subsidies
–
France President Sarkozy commented that a major slowdown in France was seen
from Q4 2011; Sees 2011 GDP should reach 1.7%
France President Sarkozy commented that a major slowdown in France was seen
from Q4 2011; Sees 2011 GDP should reach 1.7%
–
ECB’s Noyer commented that Euro zone would return to growth and added that the
pressure on French banks were difficult to understand.
ECB’s Noyer commented that Euro zone would return to growth and added that the
pressure on French banks were difficult to understand.
–
Hungary IMF representative Fellegi: stated that he did discuss the country’s
central bank law with ECB’s Draghi
Hungary IMF representative Fellegi: stated that he did discuss the country’s
central bank law with ECB’s Draghi
–
ECB Kranjec commented: Slovenia needed new government quickly and that could
ECB Kranjec commented: Slovenia needed new government quickly and that could
not
exclude that Slovenia would find itself in a similar situation like Hungary if
sovereign ratings continued to fall without control
exclude that Slovenia would find itself in a similar situation like Hungary if
sovereign ratings continued to fall without control
–
EFSF Official commented that S&P downgrade would not impact leveraging
plans (refutes press speculation)
EFSF Official commented that S&P downgrade would not impact leveraging
plans (refutes press speculation)
–
Russia Dep PM Shuvalov stated that he expected no decision on EU aid to IMF
prior to the country’s March presidential vote
Russia Dep PM Shuvalov stated that he expected no decision on EU aid to IMF
prior to the country’s March presidential vote
–
Poland Fin Min Rostowski commented that he saw the possibility of a sovereign
upgrade for country during 2012 and
noted the deficit to GDP to come in ‘slightly below’ the 3.0% level. He stated
that indebted Euro members needed structural reforms and that the role of
rating agencies must be changed
Poland Fin Min Rostowski commented that he saw the possibility of a sovereign
upgrade for country during 2012 and
noted the deficit to GDP to come in ‘slightly below’ the 3.0% level. He stated
that indebted Euro members needed structural reforms and that the role of
rating agencies must be changed
–
Japan Fin Min Azumi commented that it was difficult for Japan to intervene in
the forex markets like Switzerland did, hard to draw a line in fx rates
Japan Fin Min Azumi commented that it was difficult for Japan to intervene in
the forex markets like Switzerland did, hard to draw a line in fx rates
– Goldman Sach’s O’Neill commented that the JPY
currency was probably 25% overvalued. He also stated that
Japan’s days of trade and current account surpluses ‘looked to be finished’
currency was probably 25% overvalued. He also stated that
Japan’s days of trade and current account surpluses ‘looked to be finished’
– IEA cut its 2012
Global Oil demand forecast by 200Kbpd to 90.0Mbpd with
demand growth seen at 1.1M bpd. Maintained its 2012 Non-Opec Supply forecast at
53.7M bpd and stated that Dec OPEC Crude production was at 30.89Mbpd, highest
reading in 3 years. IEA saw rising likelihood of sharp 2012 economic slowdown.
Slowing oil demand outpacing decline in economic growth with one-third decline
in GDP growth would mean flat oil demand for 2012
Global Oil demand forecast by 200Kbpd to 90.0Mbpd with
demand growth seen at 1.1M bpd. Maintained its 2012 Non-Opec Supply forecast at
53.7M bpd and stated that Dec OPEC Crude production was at 30.89Mbpd, highest
reading in 3 years. IEA saw rising likelihood of sharp 2012 economic slowdown.
Slowing oil demand outpacing decline in economic growth with one-third decline
in GDP growth would mean flat oil demand for 2012
Currencies:
–
The USD began the European session on softer footing but contained in recent
ranges for the bulk of the morjing. The EUR/USD made another attempt to breech
the 1.28 handle early probing the hourly downtrend line over the last three
weeks. However comments from a senior director at Fitch who warned that a
two-notch downgrade of Italy was an option. The Fitch comment and lingering
concerns of the upcoming Portugal bill auction today and negotiations on Greek
debt provided the excuse to curb Euro upside momentum. Risk appetite again found some footing after
financial press report circulated that the IMF was prepared to propose
increasing lending resources by $1.0T and push for resource plan by Feb G20
meeting. The EUR/USD entered the NY morning above the 1.28 level and above the
former Jan downtrend line.
The USD began the European session on softer footing but contained in recent
ranges for the bulk of the morjing. The EUR/USD made another attempt to breech
the 1.28 handle early probing the hourly downtrend line over the last three
weeks. However comments from a senior director at Fitch who warned that a
two-notch downgrade of Italy was an option. The Fitch comment and lingering
concerns of the upcoming Portugal bill auction today and negotiations on Greek
debt provided the excuse to curb Euro upside momentum. Risk appetite again found some footing after
financial press report circulated that the IMF was prepared to propose
increasing lending resources by $1.0T and push for resource plan by Feb G20
meeting. The EUR/USD entered the NY morning above the 1.28 level and above the
former Jan downtrend line.
Political/ In the
Papers:
Papers:
–
The Spanish Budget Minister Montoro said that the government will provide
credit lines and other liquidity measures to the Spanish regions in need. It
will use the state supported Official Credit Institute (ICO) to assist with
various regions to settle bills, and allow regions more time to make payments.
The government is finding ways to deal with legislation, which bans direct
bailouts of the 17 regions, following the Spain missing its 2011 budget target.
The Spanish regions control more than one third of the country’s public
spending. Note that several Spanish regions are shut out of public-debt
markets.
The Spanish Budget Minister Montoro said that the government will provide
credit lines and other liquidity measures to the Spanish regions in need. It
will use the state supported Official Credit Institute (ICO) to assist with
various regions to settle bills, and allow regions more time to make payments.
The government is finding ways to deal with legislation, which bans direct
bailouts of the 17 regions, following the Spain missing its 2011 budget target.
The Spanish regions control more than one third of the country’s public
spending. Note that several Spanish regions are shut out of public-debt
markets.
–
The Telegraph’s Evans-Pritchard looked at the remaining options for Hungary. It
is faced with the choice of meeting the EU’s demands so that it can receive IMF
funding or allow the country to default. The country’s bond yields are trading
at unsustainable levels at a time when the country needs to repay €5.9 billion
in EU-IMF loans and raise external funding equal to 18% of GDP in 2012.
The Telegraph’s Evans-Pritchard looked at the remaining options for Hungary. It
is faced with the choice of meeting the EU’s demands so that it can receive IMF
funding or allow the country to default. The country’s bond yields are trading
at unsustainable levels at a time when the country needs to repay €5.9 billion
in EU-IMF loans and raise external funding equal to 18% of GDP in 2012.
–
The FT reported that credit default swaps (CDS) are pricing in a 65% chance
that Portugal will default over the next five years. Portugal’s bond prices
have moved to levels which some investors see as default territory. Portugal’s
bonds are being impacted by contagion concerns related to Greece. With regards
to today’s Portuguese debt auctions, most investors expect the country to
comfortably sell its debt, as the country’s banks are expected to bid at the
auction so they can use the debt to receive ECB funding. Portugal has a €10
billion bond repayment due in June.
The FT reported that credit default swaps (CDS) are pricing in a 65% chance
that Portugal will default over the next five years. Portugal’s bond prices
have moved to levels which some investors see as default territory. Portugal’s
bonds are being impacted by contagion concerns related to Greece. With regards
to today’s Portuguese debt auctions, most investors expect the country to
comfortably sell its debt, as the country’s banks are expected to bid at the
auction so they can use the debt to receive ECB funding. Portugal has a €10
billion bond repayment due in June.
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Today’s Economic News:
Our
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning our
trading day begins at 830am est with one of the most important news data
releases of the month, the PPI month-over-month. Producer Price Index measures consumer
inflation, measured by the cost of wholesale goods which are passed on to the
consumer, this is something that directly affects the sentiment on Main Street
here in the US and will affect our ability to recover from this recession in
the long term. Remember the PPI is a
balancing act, we don’t want prices too cheap and we don’t want them too
expensive, another tough job for the Fed here in the US trying to spark a
recovery without overheating at the same time.
day trading
strategies today will depend on the news, and this morning our
trading day begins at 830am est with one of the most important news data
releases of the month, the PPI month-over-month. Producer Price Index measures consumer
inflation, measured by the cost of wholesale goods which are passed on to the
consumer, this is something that directly affects the sentiment on Main Street
here in the US and will affect our ability to recover from this recession in
the long term. Remember the PPI is a
balancing act, we don’t want prices too cheap and we don’t want them too
expensive, another tough job for the Fed here in the US trying to spark a
recovery without overheating at the same time.
We
then move into Long Term TIC Flows at 900am before another very important news
release for Industrial Production. I
personally think Industrial Production is important for crude oil futures
traders because it refers to factories producing products, and those factories
will require crude oil futures. Take a look at the chart on
Industrial production, do you see the double bottom and the fact that our last
reading in december 2011 was MUCH lower then expected? This could be the single biggest aspect of crude
oil futures prices this month. I will use this Industrial production in
combination with crude oil inventories tomorrow (not today because of the
holiday on Monday) to make an educated decision when the news comes out for
inventories tomorrow.
then move into Long Term TIC Flows at 900am before another very important news
release for Industrial Production. I
personally think Industrial Production is important for crude oil futures
traders because it refers to factories producing products, and those factories
will require crude oil futures. Take a look at the chart on
Industrial production, do you see the double bottom and the fact that our last
reading in december 2011 was MUCH lower then expected? This could be the single biggest aspect of crude
oil futures prices this month. I will use this Industrial production in
combination with crude oil inventories tomorrow (not today because of the
holiday on Monday) to make an educated decision when the news comes out for
inventories tomorrow.
We
have the 930am US Markets opening at 930am EST today and then followed by a
minor Housing Market Index at 1000am. We
used to care about the housing market indexes but now the government has
propped it up so much and the numbers are manipulated so much that we don’t trust
it, bottom line, anything except great news is considered bad news, but it doesn’t
have much weight.
have the 930am US Markets opening at 930am EST today and then followed by a
minor Housing Market Index at 1000am. We
used to care about the housing market indexes but now the government has
propped it up so much and the numbers are manipulated so much that we don’t trust
it, bottom line, anything except great news is considered bad news, but it doesn’t
have much weight.
One
thing we notice is the lack of crude oil inventories today, and we also will
see crude oil futures rollover today, so trade lightly on crude oil futures until
we get a sense of market personality on the 03-12 contract. Inventories will be tomorrow b/c of the
holiday on Monday.
thing we notice is the lack of crude oil inventories today, and we also will
see crude oil futures rollover today, so trade lightly on crude oil futures until
we get a sense of market personality on the 03-12 contract. Inventories will be tomorrow b/c of the
holiday on Monday.
At
1130am this morning we will be transitioning into our members-only private
training, so we will be wrapping up with questions around 1100am EST today.
1130am this morning we will be transitioning into our members-only private
training, so we will be wrapping up with questions around 1100am EST today.
Lets
have another great day of trading!
have another great day of trading!
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I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
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I highly recommend it to all of my clients looking for this type of data. We have partnered with TTN to provide a FREE
Trial of this service by following this link: https://www.tradethenews.com/?affiliate=sot
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