January 16, 2014
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Friday’s Trading Strategy | SchoolOfTrade Nightly-Newsletter 01/16/14
“I’ve
missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times,
I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over
and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan
Reflections from
Today:
Today:
·
Markets
mostly flat on the session today, as we predicted after a busy Wednesday
session
Markets
mostly flat on the session today, as we predicted after a busy Wednesday
session
·
Jobless
Claims today came in as-expected at 326k
Jobless
Claims today came in as-expected at 326k
·
January
Philly Fed Business Outlook came in higher than expected
January
Philly Fed Business Outlook came in higher than expected
·
December
Consumer Price Index shows prices are stable
December
Consumer Price Index shows prices are stable
·
Equity
markets tumbled this morning on poor earnings from Goldman Sachs, Best Buy and
Citigroup
Equity
markets tumbled this morning on poor earnings from Goldman Sachs, Best Buy and
Citigroup
·
Gold
ends the day flat @ 1241.90
Gold
ends the day flat @ 1241.90
·
Crude
Oil ends the day flat @ 94.20
Crude
Oil ends the day flat @ 94.20
·
DOW
Drops -.40% to settle at 16417
DOW
Drops -.40% to settle at 16417
·
Mini-Russell
manages to stay above water on the day
Mini-Russell
manages to stay above water on the day
·
Next
Week: Contract Rollover on Crude Oil to
03-14
Next
Week: Contract Rollover on Crude Oil to
03-14
·
Next
Monday: Martin Luther King Jr Holiday,
Markets all closed.
Next
Monday: Martin Luther King Jr Holiday,
Markets all closed.
Today’s News:
January 16, 2014
Soft earnings from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs pulled down
stocks with the Dow slipping 0.4 percent to 16,417.
stocks with the Dow slipping 0.4 percent to 16,417.
The day’s economic news was mixed, led by another soft
consumer price report that points to the need for increased price pressures.
consumer price report that points to the need for increased price pressures.
Initial jobless claims are pointing to steady conditions in
the labor market while the Philly Fed report points to rising output and
employment in the region’s manufacturing sector despite a slowing in new
orders.
the labor market while the Philly Fed report points to rising output and
employment in the region’s manufacturing sector despite a slowing in new
orders.
The housing market index is also mixed, showing respectable
confidence among home builders but at a slightly lower level than December.
confidence among home builders but at a slightly lower level than December.
Economic News for
Tomorrow:
Tomorrow:
We have a lot more Red-Star
news to be released on Friday morning, starting with Housing Starts at 8:30am EST. If you recall, housing starts soared higher
in December of 2013, so we will be curious to see if that trend continues.
news to be released on Friday morning, starting with Housing Starts at 8:30am EST. If you recall, housing starts soared higher
in December of 2013, so we will be curious to see if that trend continues.
At 9:15am EST we hear
from Industrial Production, which also ended the year 2013 on a very high note. We will be listening in to see if our
industrial sector of the US is continuing to improve.
from Industrial Production, which also ended the year 2013 on a very high note. We will be listening in to see if our
industrial sector of the US is continuing to improve.
Our final news report
of the morning tomorrow is from Consumer Confidence.
We recently saw very strong consumer spending in retail sales earlier
this week, and there was a big improvement between the November and December
Consumer Confidence readings in 2013 which tells us that we ended last year at
the highs…but will it continue?
of the morning tomorrow is from Consumer Confidence.
We recently saw very strong consumer spending in retail sales earlier
this week, and there was a big improvement between the November and December
Consumer Confidence readings in 2013 which tells us that we ended last year at
the highs…but will it continue?
| tomorrow’s news |
8:30am Housing
Starts
Starts
9:15am Industrial
Production
Production
9:55am Consumer
Confidence
Confidence
Day trading plan for
Tomorrow:
Tomorrow:
Crude Oil:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Crude Oil VIP Chart |
If you listened to Wednesday’s Nightly-Newsletter you heard
me talk about a likely sideways-trading-range in today’s trading session if we didn’t
open above the 94.64, and that’s EXACTLY what we got.
me talk about a likely sideways-trading-range in today’s trading session if we didn’t
open above the 94.64, and that’s EXACTLY what we got.
We can see the 2-day relationship is sideways, we never left Wednesday’s
trading-range at any moment in today’s trading session.
trading-range at any moment in today’s trading session.
We can see a narrow trading-range and a closing-print right
smack in the middle of the trading-range for today.
smack in the middle of the trading-range for today.
These clues tell us that we are trading in-balance, neither the
buyers nor the sellers have the edge in the market, and tomorrow will likely be
a MUCH wider trading-range type of day because of the narrow range we saw
today.
buyers nor the sellers have the edge in the market, and tomorrow will likely be
a MUCH wider trading-range type of day because of the narrow range we saw
today.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor Chart 1 |
We got exactly what we had expected from Crude Oil futures this
morning in the US trading session. After
Wednesday’s rollercoaster ride it appeared today was a day of rest of the price-action
on Crude Oil.
morning in the US trading session. After
Wednesday’s rollercoaster ride it appeared today was a day of rest of the price-action
on Crude Oil.
We can see a new price wedge (consolidation) on this anchor
chart, along with flat moving-averages and sitting on top of the 94.00 big-round-number. This chart tells us that we now need to wait
for the next big move, and we don’t care if it moves higher or lower.
chart, along with flat moving-averages and sitting on top of the 94.00 big-round-number. This chart tells us that we now need to wait
for the next big move, and we don’t care if it moves higher or lower.
 |
| Crude Oil Anchor Chart 2 |
This consolidation of price tells us exactly what we need to
be waiting for tomorrow. Our plan for
tomorrow is to buy at support levels below and sell at resistance levels above
until that stops working for us. We don’t
know if a breakout of this range is going to keep going, or just become a fake-out
breakout and come right back inside this price wedge again.
be waiting for tomorrow. Our plan for
tomorrow is to buy at support levels below and sell at resistance levels above
until that stops working for us. We don’t
know if a breakout of this range is going to keep going, or just become a fake-out
breakout and come right back inside this price wedge again.
First, if price falls lower we will buy the support levels
below us looking for a price-reversal at 93.69, 93.46, 93.14 and 93.04. If these levels FAIL to hold for a price-reversal
we will then move into selling below each of the levels as a new trend down
begins.
below us looking for a price-reversal at 93.69, 93.46, 93.14 and 93.04. If these levels FAIL to hold for a price-reversal
we will then move into selling below each of the levels as a new trend down
begins.
Second, if price-action moves higher we are selling at resistance
overhead starting with 94.63, 94.77, 95.06, and 95.51. Remember, if these levels do NOT provide the price-reversal
we need we will then look for buying opportunities above each resistance level,
which will then become support.
overhead starting with 94.63, 94.77, 95.06, and 95.51. Remember, if these levels do NOT provide the price-reversal
we need we will then look for buying opportunities above each resistance level,
which will then become support.
Gold:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Gold VIP Chart |
We didn’t get the big move on Gold that we were hoping for
today, but we got what was expected considering we saw today’s opening-print inside
the range from Wednesday.
today, but we got what was expected considering we saw today’s opening-print inside
the range from Wednesday.
On yesterday’s Nightly-Newsletter I said to look for a big
move if we opened OUTSIDE of Wednesday’s trading-range, but that didn’t happen. We opened inside the trading-range from Wednesday
which led to a very narrow, range-bound market all day today on Gold. We will have to wait and see what tomorrow
brings.
move if we opened OUTSIDE of Wednesday’s trading-range, but that didn’t happen. We opened inside the trading-range from Wednesday
which led to a very narrow, range-bound market all day today on Gold. We will have to wait and see what tomorrow
brings.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Gold Anchor Chart 1 |
We saw a great price-reversal this morning off the level at
1244.2 which we discussed last night on our Nightly-Newsletter. We also see
that the support level of 1240.4 has also provided you with many trading
opportunities as support below.
1244.2 which we discussed last night on our Nightly-Newsletter. We also see
that the support level of 1240.4 has also provided you with many trading
opportunities as support below.
Gold is moving higher on the anchor chart, but we can easily
see this move higher looks very weak. I
can see a bullish price channel and we are above all the moving-averages so we
have the green light to buy with a wave-pattern long this evening or tomorrow
morning.
see this move higher looks very weak. I
can see a bullish price channel and we are above all the moving-averages so we
have the green light to buy with a wave-pattern long this evening or tomorrow
morning.
 |
| Gold Anchor Chart 2 |
If price pulls back before it moves higher we are buying at
1240.4, 1239.8 and an easy buying opportunity will come at the trend-line support
around the 1237.7 level.
1240.4, 1239.8 and an easy buying opportunity will come at the trend-line support
around the 1237.7 level.
If we go higher from here I am buying pullbacks using our wave-pattern
long with a profit-target at the 1244.2 and then 1245.8. We should expect to see price-action test the
Major Reversal level at 1245.8 and then come back down to give us a shot at
buying it again.
long with a profit-target at the 1244.2 and then 1245.8. We should expect to see price-action test the
Major Reversal level at 1245.8 and then come back down to give us a shot at
buying it again.
Mini-Russell:
VIP Chart:
 |
| Russell VIP Chart |
We got exactly what we expected today from the Mini-Russell when
it opened inside the range from yesterday at 930am EST. On yesterday’s Nightly-Newsletter we said
that if we opened above the highs from Wednesday we would see a big rally
higher, but we cautioned that if we opened inside the range from Wednesday we
would most likely see a sloppy, range-bound market, which is exactly what we
saw today.
it opened inside the range from yesterday at 930am EST. On yesterday’s Nightly-Newsletter we said
that if we opened above the highs from Wednesday we would see a big rally
higher, but we cautioned that if we opened inside the range from Wednesday we
would most likely see a sloppy, range-bound market, which is exactly what we
saw today.
This evening we have much of the same scenario that we had at
the same time last night. We have a very
narrow range, moving sideways with a slight bullishness to the market-sentiment. We closed today’s session near the highs, and
for most of the day today it FELT like the Mini-Russell was going to finally
push higher, but it never found a way to stay above the highs at 1170.3.
the same time last night. We have a very
narrow range, moving sideways with a slight bullishness to the market-sentiment. We closed today’s session near the highs, and
for most of the day today it FELT like the Mini-Russell was going to finally
push higher, but it never found a way to stay above the highs at 1170.3.
The plan for tomorrow is to watch the opening-bell closely,
looking for clues from the traders entering the market at 9:30am EST. An opening-print above the 1170.3 and we
start buying. An opening-print inside
the range from today will tell us to buy-the-lows at support and sell-the-highs
at resistance inside this range once again.
Lastly, if we open below the 1161.9 we will be back below the prior week’s
highs, as well as the PLOD from Tuesday and we will be selling short down to
the profit-target at 1148.1.
looking for clues from the traders entering the market at 9:30am EST. An opening-print above the 1170.3 and we
start buying. An opening-print inside
the range from today will tell us to buy-the-lows at support and sell-the-highs
at resistance inside this range once again.
Lastly, if we open below the 1161.9 we will be back below the prior week’s
highs, as well as the PLOD from Tuesday and we will be selling short down to
the profit-target at 1148.1.
Anchor Chart:
 |
| Russell Anchor Chart |
The Mini-Russell anchor chart shows us just how sloppy today’s
price-action really was. Look closely
and you can see we had higher-highs AND lower-lows in today’s trading-range. While the rest of the e-mini’s were getting
hammered over poor earnings from various companies this morning you can see the
Mini-Russell held up nicely during the storm.
price-action really was. Look closely
and you can see we had higher-highs AND lower-lows in today’s trading-range. While the rest of the e-mini’s were getting
hammered over poor earnings from various companies this morning you can see the
Mini-Russell held up nicely during the storm.
We have a long term bullish price channel, which suggests the
buyers are still in control, however, the medium and short term looks
sideways. We have all the moving-averages
below us, and we recently tested the support zone at 1167.6 and now moving
higher so we are ready to buy this evening with a wave-pattern long we just
need the entry pattern to get into the trade.
buyers are still in control, however, the medium and short term looks
sideways. We have all the moving-averages
below us, and we recently tested the support zone at 1167.6 and now moving
higher so we are ready to buy this evening with a wave-pattern long we just
need the entry pattern to get into the trade.
Assuming this price-action continues to stay bullish tonight and
into Friday’s session we will buy support levels at 1167.6, 1166.0, and 1164.9
and then sell short below the 1163.5 buy-zone lows. As we push higher we will use the profit-targets
overhead at 1170.4, 1173.0, 1174.5 and 1176.4.
into Friday’s session we will buy support levels at 1167.6, 1166.0, and 1164.9
and then sell short below the 1163.5 buy-zone lows. As we push higher we will use the profit-targets
overhead at 1170.4, 1173.0, 1174.5 and 1176.4.
===========================================================
Want to see us trade LIVE?
Click here to register for the
Free Trial!
Click here to register for the
Free Trial!
Automated Trading Strategy; Let the
Computer do the trading
Computer do the trading
Are you a Crude Oil Trader? Click here to
trade Crude Oil
trade Crude Oil
Are you a Euro Trader? Click here to
trade Euro
trade Euro
Are you an E-Mini Russell Trader? Click here to trade
E-Mini Russell
E-Mini Russell
Are you a Gold Trader? Click here to trade
Gold
Gold
Join the Premier Live trade-room as an Advanced Member
