March 31, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
Looking at the news this morning…We will hopefully get some volume from the jobs report at 830am, so be on the look out for that.  Later in the session we have to be careful trading around the 10am timeframe.  Make sure we avoid the news 5 mins before and then wait 5 mins afterwards.
We’ve seen a very significant slowdown AFTER the last news of the morning in the month of March, so be careful in the ‘dead zone’ from 1045 to 1130am est today.
And of course I cant forget today is the last day of the month, and the last day of first quarter.  Its tough to tell what the personality will be this morning until we get started…we may see slow and sloppy or this morning may be filled with action…we will see very soon!
Lets look at the charts we’re watching today…
Im looking at the gold futures still trading in the middle of the massive sideways range referrenced on this 89range chart.
We’re in the middle of this sideways market which means we will see more challenging price action.  We want to trade around the highs and the lows of this range, I would rather stay away from the middle.
Lets take a look at the 34-range chart and see where our day trading opportunities will be today.
I can see many important aspects to focus on this morning with gold:
  • Sideways Market
  • PHOD and PLOD
  • Dollar Correlation
The first thing I see is this sideways market we’re been trading in with gold.  my goal is to Buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middle of this sideways range.
As price rises im looking to sell at resistance, If price breaks new highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support.
On the flip side, with a sideways market Im looking to buy at support as price falls, If price breaks new highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support.
The next thing I see is the PHOD and PLOD are below us.  This makes this an Outside Trading Day which has more profit potential.
Im always watching the PHOD and PLOD and you can see this range from 1431.8 down to 1413.5 will be trying to attract price back DOWN into this area.
I will buy the PHOD first as we drop, then sell a retracement below the PHOD if we break new lows.  I will then look to BUY the PLOD as support, and sell a retracement if we break below that as well.
The range below us will be calling the name of the gold all morning today, so be on the look out for the Price reversal pattern and head back down.
Crude Oil Futures 
Im looking at the 89range chart on the crude oil futures and we see the following:
  • Price Wedge
  • Bearish Price Channel
  • Bullish Price CHannel
  • Sideways Range

We can see crude oil has broken the bearish price channel in green trend lines, and now has developed into a bullish price channel in orange trend lines, and we also have a sideways market today.

The most important will be to watch the sideways range, and since we have a bullish price channel, we can think of the buy side as the higher percentage side.

Buying the lows, or buying at support will be the high % trade this morning.

With that bullish sentiment in the market, we then look at the price wedge in pink trend lines, and we see the overhead resistance is the top of this wedge.

Im always looking to sell the highs of the price wedge, this will be around 106.50.

Im always selling the highs of the sideways range around 106.00, 105.75.

Lets look at the 34range chart

I can see the following on this much faster timeframe:

  • New bullish price channel
  • Sideways Range
  • Wedge Highs above us
  • PHOD and PLOD

The first thing i see is this new bullish price channel in blue trend lines.  this means we will be looking to buy at support on the way up, and buy pullbacks when we get new higher highs.

We also see the sideways range that was defined from our 89range chart, so we want to sell the highs and buy the lows of this range.

We know the highs of the price wedge are above us at 106.50, so that will be a MAJOR level of resistance I will be looking to sell if price gets up that high.

PHOD and PLOD are below us, making this an outside trading day.  Outside days mean something has changed the opinion of VALUE in the market, which should result in moving markets.

Im going to see the PHOD as support first as we drop, so ill look to buy that support at 105.14, but in all reality im looking for the SHORT when we break below the PHOD.

If prices drop to the PLOD im buying the PLOD, and If price breaks new lows I will  Sell a Retracement at resistance.

    schooloftrade

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