April 27, 2011
Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures
‘We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
8:30 Durable Goods Orders
9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
10:30 Crude Oil Inventories
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
12:30 FOMC Meeting Announcement
Looking at the news this morning we know that today has many variables. We have major news early @ 830am and then more major news @ 1030am. The variable is the FOMC Announcement today.
Starting this week there is a new FOMC Meeting Format that we *assume* will have some impact that we may not be aware of. Trader’s are creature’s of habit, and today is something new, so we really have to wait and see what happens.
My usual routine on FOMC Day is to get into the markets EARLY, make money and then look to stop trading around 1045am est before the volume slows down ahead of the 2:15pm announcement.
Today the announcement is earlier, at 12:30pm, so this may (or may not) have a direct impact on WHEN the volume slows down today…if it at all. We shall see.
IN the end it really doesnt matter what today is…or is not… I’m watching the speed or the orders coming into the market along with average true range (ATR) to find the best times to trade the markets today.
My trading method will work on any liquid market, but here’s what im focused on this morning…
Crude Oil Futures
We see sideways ranges and a price wedge on the CL 06-11 contract this morning, giving us plenty of trading opportunities ahead of today’s important news events.We know that crude oil has major news @ 1030am today, and FOMC will also be a factor in this to consider. I will be watching this market’s personality all morning to see the best times to trade.
Open your 34range chart and you can see the following:
- Major Sideways Range from 113.56 down to 111.00
- Minor Sideways Range from 112.64 down to 111.51
- Price Wedge in the blue trend lines
- Price Channel in the blue dotted trend line
- PHOD and PLOD = Inside trading day
- Major Levels above at 113.56 and 114.0
- Major Levels below us at 111.12 and the BMT at 111.08 major support
With this said, my plan of attack on crude oil will be simple:
- Trade the sideways range and the wedge first, buy the lows and sell the highs of the range and the wedge
- If price rises to new highs im selling the highs first, then looking to buy pullbacks with new higher highs
- If prices rise im selling the HOD and PHOD
- im keeping an eye on selling major resistance of 113.54 and 114.00
- I will keep an eye on the bullish price channel defined in the dotted trend line as a good profit target for a long position
- If prices fall im buying at support levels first, and then selling retracements when we see new lows made
- If prices fall I will buy the LOD and PLOD
- I will keep an eye on buying at major support of 111.12 and the BMT
- The Big Money Trigger Line (BMT) will act like a price magnet, so I will use this as a final profit target for a short trade
