February 25, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
8:30 GDP

9:00 Crude Oil OPEN

9:30 US Market OPEN
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room

Looking at the news this morning we have word from Saudi Arabia that it has increased production of crude oil this morning to compensate for lack of supply in the middle east.

GDP is expected this morning, so the markets will certainly be watching that time closely, so will we.  Set your alarm 5 minutes before the news and then wait to see the reaction after the news is released at 830am EST.

Today is a friday, so we will also expect volume to drop earlier than other days of the week, so expect the lunch hour to set in around 11am EST, about an hour earlier than usual.

Lets take a look at the charts we’re watching today…

The dollar is resting on major support of 77.000.  As we expected on thursday we dropped to this support level, had a brief bounce off the support, and now we sit here looking for some direction ahead of us today.
Will the dollar break new lows? This causes prices to rise.
If price breaks new highs on crude oil and gold  I will  Buy a Pullback at support.
Will the dollar bounce off 77.000 and rise back up? This causes prices to drop.
If price breaks new lows on gold and crude oil  I will  Sell a Retracement at resistance.
we will be watching the Dollar Index Futures Correlation on all the markets we trade most this morning.
Crude Oil Futures
Crude Oil Futures are trading off new highs from thursday on news of increased production out of saudi arabia.
This continues to confirm our technical position of selling the highs, so once again this reminds us never to trade our emotions, but look for technicals to confirm always.
I can see a very narrow price range developing ahead of the 830am GDP news this morning.
four things im looking at today on crude oil:
  • wedge pattern blue trend lines
  • price channel in pink trend lines
  • Big Round Number of 100.00
  • Previous Low of Day & Swing Highs from this morning
The Wedge Pattern is our first concern.  The tight range inside the blue trend lines needs to get cleared out first, there isnt enough room for us to trade right here, so lets be patient.
Then lets look above and below, we have a bearish price channel so looking at the SHORT side as the higher percentage trade today.
Look at the levels above and below the wedge.  If price rises, im looking to sell the resistance at 98.77.  If price falls im looking to buy at support of 96.30.
If price drops further, keep a close eye on the thursday’s low of day at 95.62.  This will be an excellent spot to buy the crude oil.  look for momentum and buyers to confirm by Reading the Tape at the lows.
And lastly, dont forget the big round number of 100.0 may come into play this morning.  We saw the challenge of trading around that number earlier this week, so trade with caution around 100.
Gold looks similar to crude oil this morning, trading off the highs from thursday and now in a narrow wedge pattern looking for some more direction ahead of the 830am news.
three things to watch today on gold futures:
  • Wedge pattern in trend lines
  • Sideways market
  • Big Round number 1400
  • Previous Highs and Lows

The wedge is our first concern, we need to Buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middle of this wedge, and you can see its getting very narrow, so we may not get the opportunity while we are inside this tight range.

Keep an eye on the big round number of 1400.0 its sitting just below the wedge, ready to take our money with sloppy price action, so try your best to beware trading around 1400.

The sideways market will be out best bet for trading opportunities early this morning.  Look to sell the highs and buy the lows of the range, so im selling 1418.8, 1416.5, 1410.4.

On the flip side, im buying at support levels at the lows of 1386.3, 1392.2, 1395.2 using our omentum indicator to confirm when the price will hold at support.

We’re watching the correlation with the dollar index.  If the dollar drops to new lows we will see the euro test new highs.  if the dollar 77.000 support level holds and price rises, we will see an excellent opportunity to sell these highs on the euro.
three things to consider on the euro
  • Dollar Corrleation
  • Wedge pattern
  • Previous day’s HOD and LOD

First, we watch the dollar, if its rising or falling to tell us which DIRECTION to be looking for on the euro.

We want to sell the of the price wedge, if the dollar rises, we want to sell below 1.3764, taking profit at support on the way down at 1.3746, 1.3701 (PLOD), and 1.3600 all the way at the lows of the price wedge.

If the dollar keeps falling, prices will RISE on the euro, and we want buy a pullback above 1.3856 so we can get into a trade at the LOWS of the bullish price channel in pink trend lines.

if price drops without me being short, im looking to buy at levels of support, focus on the PLOD around 3701.

    schooloftrade

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