March 22, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
10:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
Looking at the news this morning we have two smaller report outs at 10am est today, but thats all we need to worry about for TODAY.
We look at tomorrow and we have Ben Bernanke speaking in the morning and crude oil inventories, but nothing too big to spark our concerns today.
We continue to hear updates from Japan regarding the nuclear reactor situation, and we are still working through the end of the month of March, which is known as being one of the harder months of the year to trade.
the word of the day will be speed, we need to see consistency in the price action on the market’s we’re trading today.
Lets look at the chart’s we’re trading with today…

The Dollar Index continues its drop below 76.000 this morning, now showing signs of support at 75.500.
I drew  trend lines  from the swing highs and then copied those to the lows to define a price channel.  As you can see the DX 06-11 contract is now trading at the lows of this channel.
We always want to remember the Dollar Index Futures Correlation when using the dollar.
The dollar has fallen to new lows, which resulted in buying opportunities in the recent past.  Now the dollar is sitting on support and we will expect one of two things to happen:
  1. we bounce off support and price rises
  2. we break support and price falls
If price rises on the dollar im looking to sell on other markets, and if the the dollar pushes new lows we will look to buy new highs on the markets we trade most.
The key to day trading with the dollar is knowing what is happening right NOW.
Crude Oil Futures
Crude Oil appears to be searching for direction this week as we finish up the first quarter of 2011.
We can see new lows creating some easy trading patterns for us to consider today:
  • Price wedge in yellow trend lines
  • Sideways trading range (three of them)
  • PHOD & PLOD Levels
  • Dollar Trending Down

The first thing I see on this 34range chart is the price Wedge Pattern in thick yellow trend lines.  HIgher lows and lower highs make for this simple price pattern.

Trading wedges are easy, Buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middle.

Im going to sell the highs of the wedge, as well as the levels immediately above it.  Selling 103.45, 103.75, 104.00, 104.13. 

Im buying the lows of the wedge, as well as the levels right below it.  Buying 102.58, 102.00, 101,92

The first job will be to trade INSIDE the wedge, buy the lows sell the highs, but if price breaks out of the wedge we need to know what to do.

If price breaks above the wedge highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support
If price breaks the wedge lows I will  Sell a Retracement at resistance.
Next, we need to look at these very obvious sideways range and look to use these as well.  Ive marked them in white ‘boxes’ on the chart.
You can see three different trading ranges to use:
  • 104.42 – 101.00 Large / Long term
  • 104.13 – 102.58 Medium term
  • 103.17 – 102.51 Small / Short term
These three sideways markets make for easy trading.  Just wait to buy the lows and sell the highs of these ranges.
Look at the short term, narrowest channel first. 
Buying the lows of 102.58, 102.00, 101.00
Selling the highs of 103.17, 104.13, and 104.42.
In all reality, if price rises im looking to sell resistance, and if price falls im looking to buy the support since we see such well-defined sideways ranges.
I always want to keep the PHOD and PLOD in mind as well.
PHOD is up at 104.14 so we can expect that to draw price up to re-test that level.  I will sell the PHOD first, and then buy a pullback above 104.13 if price continues upwards.
The PLOD is 102.60 so we can also look to buy this level as support, and sell a retracement if price breaks new lows.
Lastly, remember the dollar index has been dropping, so look to use this dolar correlation to make the best decisions today.  If the DX makes new lows we can buy support on the crude oil levels defined above.
Gold Futures appear to be taking their cues from the dollar index this morning, coming to a stall at the highs, after the dollar bounces off support.
Looking into the gold 34range chart we see this market in a transitional area between the bearish price channel and the sideways market.
We can see the following on this chart:
  • Price channel in thich yellow trend lines
  • Price channel in dotten orange trend lines (short term)
  • Sideways range in white ‘box’

The thing I see first is that we just broke out of two price channels, the massive bearish channel in yellow and the short term bullish channel in orange.

We appear to have lost the bullish move up when the DX 06-11 ran into support, and now we have price trading sideways.

First, im going to trade the sideways range, buy the lows and sell the highs.

Buy 1423.8, 1425.8 and sell the highs of 1423, 1433, 1435, 1436, and 1437.

If price stays inside this range we will trade inside it, but look for the price to breakout eventually.

If price breaks new highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support
If price breaks new lows I will  Sell a Retracement at resistance

if price breaks this sideways range I have to assume price will try to jump back into one of these price channels.

Look to buy a pullback at support and try to get into the short term bullish channel above 1435.

Look to sell a retracement at resistance and try to get back into the longer term bearish price channel below 1423.8

Euro Currency Futures

E-mini Russell Futures

    schooloftrade

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