February 11, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
8:30 International Trade

9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
9:55 Consumer Sentiment

11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
Looking at the news for today, we’ve had a slow week in the markets for volume, so friday morning may be a continuation of this sluggish price action.
We have news at 830 and 955 this morning, so look for an early close to the morning around 11am EST.
We will be watching the 830am news for early volume, but expecting the best moves to come before 1030am after the consumer sentiment news.
The Dollar Index is on the move this morning so this will be a good sign of movement in the markets today when the volume comes in.
Lets look at the charts we’re watching today…
We can see four important issues to consider on the dollar this morning:
– the market is MOVING, this is a GREAT sign for us today
– Long term bearish price channel in yellow trend lines
– Short term bullish price channel in blue trend lines
– sideways range from 81.450 down to 79.000 (big round number)
The dollar index has now clearly broken the bearish price channel and now headed up to test the lows of the trading range marked with the box above 79.000.
The key to this chart is seeing the sideways range from 81.450 down to 79.000
We will expect the DX 03-11 to test the lows of the range above it in search for more buyers, but we will have to wait and see how the market reacts to the 79.000 big round number.
While price is rising it will test the highs of the short term price channel as well (bleu trend lines)
This will make for an excellent spot for a Price reversal so lets remember how to use the dollar.
We always use the  Dollar Index Futures Correlation when trading most futures markets, and we will review this in our trade room today.
Crude Oil Futures
We have three things to consider today on the crude oil futures 03-11

sideways market  from 88.00 down to 86.00
– Narrow  Wedge Pattern from 87.70 down to 86.68
– Price channel above us from 88.00 up to 90.00

Our biggest concernt his morning is the narrow wedge pattern, this will cause us to wait for the price to either break out of this wedge, or at least test the highs or lows to give us something to trade with.

The key to a wedge is the WIDER the BETTER.  as you can see we are getting very close to the most narrow point of the wedge, beware.

We need to plan on this price breaking OUT of the wedge, and we will follow these rules:

 If price breaks new highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support

If price breaks new lows I will  Sell a Retracement at resistance

The dollar is rising, so expect crude oil to fall, so look to sell at resitance on the way down, and dont be afraid to sell the highs of 88.00, 87.70 if price tests the highs.

Also keep in mind that if we make new highs we will see the lows of the price channel above 88.00 come into play.  If we can get into the channel, then the buyers will be trying to move this price all the way to the TOP of the channel, around

Gold Futures

Three things to watch on the gold this morning
– Long term bullish price channel in pink trend lines

– Short term price wedge in yellow trend lines
– sideways trading range from 1366.0 down to 1358.6 and then down to 1351.4 (range within a range)

First thing we need to watch is the wedge, it looks very similar to crude oil this morning.  the narrower ti gets, the more difficult it will be to see LARGE moves, making trading more dangerous.

The sideways range is next, we need to  Buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middle

Sell 1366.0, sell the break below 1358.6, and then sell the break below 1351.4 if we can get there.

Always buy at support, so im buying at the pink trend line below 1344.1, at 1344.1, 1351.4, 1358.6, and then if we break new highs ill buy above 1371.7 above the highs of the channel.

remember though, im not buying the highs,  If price breaks new highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support

Euro Currency Futures


– sideways range below 3500 down 3074
– price channel in pink trend lines above 3600
– wedge pattern in yellow trend lines above 3550 and below 3700

the most important is the wedge pattern because its the most recent, and its the most important because if we’re going to trade today this market will have to trade inside the wedge.

buy the lows of 3500
sell the highs of 3600 (resistance)
sell the highs of 3700 (top of the wedge)

sell resistance and buy support, very simple rule, but tough to follow.

keep an eye on the 3600, if we break above that level, we’re now in the lows of the price channel, so the buyers are expected to push the highs of the channel in the near future.

E-mini Russell Futures

    schooloftrade

    Click Here to Leave a Comment Below

    Leave a Reply: