March 11, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
830 Retail Sales

9:00 Crude Oil OPEN

9:30 US Market OPEN
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
Looking at today’s news we have a record-breaking earthquake out of Japan that happened overnight which has caused distractions across the globe on this friday morning.
This didnt affect the exchanges we trade most (CME/NYMEX) however the fact that this is a global marketplace and a FRIDAY will have an impact on our trading today.
We will watch closely at the volume today.  I would assume traders being distracted may have an impact on volume, but at the same time concerns of supply of crude oil have been on the minds of traders all week, so this may end up adding to the volatility…we will see!
Lets take a look at the technical charts this morning…

We can see the dollar is still trading in its upward trend this morning.  Notice we are well above the 77.000 level now, and we can see overhead resistance at 77.431, and 77.600.

Considering the Dollar Index Futures Correlation, we will use these overhead resistance levels for short term buying opportunities, and using the upward trend to give us high percentage short trades on markets such as crude oil and gold today.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil continues to tumble off the highs from last week, finally testing the 100.0 level again after new record highs last week.

We can see three things on this chart to consider today:

  1. Price edge in yellow trend lines
  2. Price channel in pink trend lines
  3. PLOD & PHOD

With a rising dollar we have to look at the short side as the higher % opportunity. We can sell crude as the DX rises, and buy crude when we see small pullbacks on the dollar.

Any time we see a wedge I want to sell the highs and buy the lows, making sure to avoid the middle.

Looking at this wedge we can see the highs are 103.00, 102.30, 102.00, 101.57, 101.0.  The lows are 100.0, 99.32, 99.01, and down to 98.00

As price drops im looking to buy support first with a Price reversal pattern.  If the move down is too strong, and If price breaks new lows I will  Sell a Retracement at resistance.

On the flip side, if prices are rising with this wedge im looking to be a seller first, selling the overhead resistance levels with a 2-step price reversal pattern.

and again, if prices move higher with strength, If price breaks new highs I will  Buy a Pullback at support.

Lets also remember the price channel in pink trend lines above us.  If we break above 101.57 we are now technically at the LOWS of this channel, so we should be looking to buy those lows.

Buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middle is the best way to trade a price channel, so look to buy a pullback using 101.57 or 102.30 as support to get long once we get up into the price channel.
And lastly, we need to remember the PHOD, which is 100.62.  If we break above the PLOD the buyers are back in control and we need to look to buy pullbacks at new highs.
If we FAIL to get back up above the PLOD we can consider that a sign of new lows coming, so look to sell a retracement as you see new lows.
The gold market looks similar to crude oil, comming off new highs from last week, and giving us a simple wedge pattern to work with.
three things to consider:
  1. wedge pattern in yellow trend lines
  2. Sideways range in white box
  3. PLOD AND PHOD

Buy the lows and sell the highs of the wedge.  As price falls we are buying first, selling second, and visa versa.

the sideways range from 1419.3 down to 1403.0 (PLOD) is always going to be attractive for us to use.  Sell the highs and buy the lows of the sideways range, keep an eye on the middle to avoid the chop zone.

Sell 1419.0 and buy the 1403.0 using this sideways range.

Lastly the PHOD will act like a magnet, just like the PLOD will attract prices to the previous lows.  the key is listening to the market when we test the previous HOD/LOD.

If we see big money BUYING above PHOD that is a strong bullish signal, we should be lookign to buy pullbacks.

If we DONT see any big money buying at the PHOD, we can assume sellers will take price back down to the PLOD.

If price stays INSIDE the range from yesturday we can confidently sell the highs and buy the lows as often as we can.

E-mini Russell Futures

    schooloftrade

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