November 30, 2010

Day Trading Morning Prep: Crude Oil, Gold, Euro and E-Mini Russell Futures

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Gold Futures:



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Our 55-range chart shows a well defined bullish price channel, and we are coming off the highs of this channel at 1374.5

The best option when trading a price channel is to buy the lows and sell the highs.

Look to buy the support at 1370 with a wave pattern long, final target at 1380.0

If we don’t retrace all the way back down to the PHOD of 1370.0, look to sell the highs of 1380.6 and cover that short at 1370.0 with a 2-step price reversal pattern.

I can see long term momentum is curling over from the top, this means im expecting gold to drop down to 1370.0 this morning before we see it go back to the highs, so I will plan to buy support as soon as the pattern triggers.

If price breaks below 1370.0 this will signal the market is rejecting higher gold prices, so look for a wave pattern failure short entry below 1367.4 and cover that short at 1361 or the trend line support at the bottom of this price channel.

Be sure to look for a buying opportunity on gold if we get back down to the bottom of the channel, around 1356.2 would be an excellent place to get long at support (the lows of the price channel)

Crude Oil Futures:
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Crude oil futures are trading at the highs of a price channel. The best way to trade a price channel is to sell the highs and buy the lows.

Looking for a 2-step reversal pattern short below 84.88 with a final target of 83.59

Beware of the trend line support on the way down, so scale out of your trade by taking ¼ of your profit at the trend line around 84.00 on the way down with this short trade.

I will also look to buy support at the lows of this price channel, but as you can see we will be waiting to buy the lows of 81.00 until possibly later this week.

Im going to have to wait to break 86.00 to get long so we can avoid the mess of overhead resistance at 85.72

You are going to see a lot of buying pressure above 85.72 as trader try to force a breakout, but remember to stay focused on speed of the tape, momentum, and read the tape to tell if we are indeed breaking out, or if this is just a fake-out.

The highest percentage trade is selling the highs, so look for momentum and price action to confirm the 2-step short below 84.88 and look to ride this price all the way down.

Euro Futures:
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The Euro is trading in a strong down-trending price channel.

The best way to trade a price channel is to sell the highs and buy the lows

We are under the lows of the channel, so we have a few options

o  I can buy the lows of 1.3000 and wait for price to eventually re-enter the price channel
o  Of I can wait for price to move above the PLOD, which confirms the buyers are in control, which gives us a lot more confidence on the trade I will look for entry long today above the PLOD 1.3063 and taking profit on that trade at 1.3137
–     The higher percentage move is to buy the lows, so look for the 2-step reversal pattern off these lows and be patient to wait for price to enter back into the price channel from the bottom
o  The goal is to hold this long trade all the way up to 1.3400 the highs of the price channel
–      If we continue to see the dollar rise today, the euro will keep falling, so im looking for the short entry below 1.2978 or more conservatively below 1.2955

       Remember that the euro likes to tip-toe down on these types of patterns, so be prepared to take some jittery moves on the way down.

I     Would consider the Euro to be oversold right now
o  Below the lows of the price channel
o  Lower lows and lower highs on momentum
o  Momentum is curled up from the lows
o  Considerable down trend lasting multiple weeks
       With that said, this euro can easily keep going, but the higher percentage trade is the buy, so trade with that on your side, and wait for the best pattern to buy at support.
E-mini Russell Futures:
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    The Russell is trading in another price channel

      The best way to trade a price channel is to sell the highs and buy the lows

I     Can see trend line support around 723.5, so look to buy that level as support with the final target of 732.1

       Look for a trend line break selling opportunity below the 723.1 and look to cover the short at the lows of the price channel around 713.3

       If we miss the ability to buy the support then I will look to sell the highs of 732.1, 733.6 and 737.0 on the way up.
 
      We see trend line resistance overhead at 737.0, so look for a price reversal 2-step pattern Short at this level to profit from this resistance at the highs of the price channel.
  
       Take profit from selling the highs ½ at the trend line support, and be patient to cover the final ½ at the lows of the price channel.

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