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Day Traders Prepare for Bernanke, Geithner, and Crude Oil Inventories News
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The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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You can achieve the most difficult of
tasks by completing something simple today first. Professional traders understand that our
trading success is an evolutionary process, with our skills improving more
every day. Its vital that we don’t try
and learn everything at once, and that we appreciate the value and opportunity
we get to learn from live price action. Take
the time today to plan out your goals, and start hitting those goals one small
task at a time.
world***
Bernanke: Comfortable with easing EU strains but must remain vigilant as
contagion risk remains
Treasuries snap longest ever consecutive drop in 10-Year prices. Dealers note
that previous episodes have been followed by extended yield compression
UK BOE minutes more dovish than expected as 2 members sought more QE
UK Budget speech key event in NY morning; watch for rating agency reaction
European shares gained during the session ahead of US home sales data due out
in the NY morning. Investors are anticipating a positive surprise especially
after building permits published yesterday, surpassed analysts’ estimates.
Retailers pushed the shares higher following positive earnings report.
rating for the City of Detroit to below investment grade
Bank of England Minutes saw a surprised split in the Asset Purchase Target vote
of 7 to 2 (same as the Feb meeting). The
MPC majority saw little change in balance of risks to growth and inflation over
the past month and was certain that UK growth would pick up in the near term
but significant downside risks remain. Oil prices were a clear risk to outlook
and might rise further than assumed back in Feb. The majority noted that a
substantial risks to medium-term CPI outlook and future declines to CPI were
less certain than recent declines. Unemployment might not cap inflation due to
unclear productivity outlook and upward drift in wage agreements
BOE Minority members Miles and Posen again voted to increase APT by £25B (same
as in Feb) noting that a larger monetary stimulus was warranted to reduce the
risk that persistently weak growth would damage the future supply capacity of
the economy
Greece Dep Fin Min Filippos Sachinidis was formally appointed as the next
Finance Minister to replace Venizelos
Germany might need to increase firewall guarantees to €280B from €211B. The
guarantees would be needed to be raised if the EFSF was run at the same time as
the ESM. The EFSF has remaining fire
power of about €190B, while the ESM would have about €500B
Germany appeared to have accepted defeat in its efforts to convince other
European countries to impose a kind of sales tax on financial transactions
(Tobin Tax) in the EU or in the smaller euro zone, possibly putting up an
obstacle to ratifying the permanent euro-zone bailout fund in Parliament
Germany Cabinet was said to have approve 2013 budget draft which cut net
borrowings by €5.7B
German RWI Institute raised its 2012 GDP outlook to +1.0% from +0.6 % prior and
forecasted 2013 GDP growth at +2.0%
ECB’s Assmussen commented that it was too early to begin exit of special
measures at this time but must carefully
prepare ECB’s exit at this time. He noted that the exact timing depended on
market developments. Crisis was not over and was not sure if recent market calm
was deceptive; He stressed that govt must use this time to enact reforms. He
added that the central bank did not see any sign of Europe-wide asset bubbles
but were watching developments closely
Approaching quarter-end had dealers question the flow direction but the firm
tone in the EUR/USD was attributed to Tuesday’s formal approval of the Greek second bailout conditions in its
Parliament
USD/JPY Dealers were pondering the next leg of the JPY currency move but eh JPY
was softer during the session. Dealers noted that 10-year Treasuries snap its
longest ever consecutive drop in prices but dealers noted that previous
episodes have been followed by extended yield compression which could hamper
upside potential for the time being.
However the JPY was softer against the major pairs.
The GBP/USD stumbled from the 1.59 area following a much more dovish release of
the BOE minutes and a sharp deterioration in government borrowing. The pair
tested 1.5840 after MPC members Miles and Posen again voted for £25B in QE.
Papers:
Banks in Europe are trying to design a structure aimed at easing liquidity in
the commodities industry, putting together a securitized vehicle which bundles
loans to commodity trading firms. Currently, larger commodity trading firms are
borrowing at about 100-200bps/Libor. According to bankers, the availability of
credit to the commodity industry has declined by as much as 30%.
According to a survey of economists, a majority expects the UK to maintain its
AAA sovereign credit rating, as well as government to meet its deficit targets.
Credit ratings agency Moody’s warned that there is little to no chance Irish
banks will have the ability to securitize home loans in the medium-term. The
agency also anticipates mortgage arrears level could increase by over 16% by
the year end compared to the 11.98% reported at the end of January.
Securitization was a significant source of bank funding during the boom years.
with minor news from Canada at 830am before we get into the
Open of the US session at 930am EST. We
have Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner Due to testify on the
European debt crisis before the House Committee on Government Oversight and
Reform, in Washington DC;
testimony usually comes in 2 parts:
first he reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the
Fed’s website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer
session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some
unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility; day traders will
expect price action to slow down ahead of this speech, and then looking for
markets to begin moving well after they get done with the first portion and go
into the live questions and answers.
this morning we have a widely-anticipated Existing Home Sales Report, which news chatter this morning has people
expecting a surprisingly-higher number after rumors came out overnight in Europe.
EST this morning we have Crude Oil inventories report, which will be a big mover for all of our Crude Oil
traders. Crude Oil inventories are very
easy to trade if you know what to look for, and we will review our day trading
strategy for 1030am news today in our live trade room.
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Commons
– 8:00 (FI) Finland’s Parliament votes
on Confidence in Government (5th time)
– 8:20 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at
CDU event
– 8:30 (UK) Chancellor Osborne Budget
Speech
– 8:30 (UK) OBR releases updated
forecasts on UK Economy
– 8:30 (CA) Canada Feb Leading
Indicators M/M: 0.6%et v 0.7% prior
– 9:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke and
Tsy Sec Geithner testify before Congress
on Europe Debt Crisis
– 10:00 (EU) EU’s Barnier speaks at EU
Parliament
– 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Retail Sales:
4.0%e v 3.5% prior
– 10:00 (US) Feb Existing Home Sales:
4.61Me v 4.57M prior
– 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy
Inventories
– 10:45 (UK) (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in
2019-2025 Gilts in reverse auction
– 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $3.50-4.25B
in Notes
– 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly
currency flow data
– 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Trade
Balance: $1.3Be v $550M prior
– 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Industrial
Production Y/Y: 4.0%e v 2.4% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.0%e v 7.5% prior
– 17:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 GDP Q/Q:
0.6%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.9% prior
– 19:50 (JP) Japan Feb Total Merchandise
Trade Balance: -¥120.0Be v -¥1.477T prio; Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balanace:
-¥342.5be v -¥612.8B prior
– 22:30 (CN) China Mar HSBC Flash China
Manufacturing: No est v 49.7 prior
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