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Day Traders Prep for New Home Sales and Ben Bernanke Friday
The James’ Report: Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders
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like a river. Every river has times of
fast movement, and slow movement. Every
river has a direction, north or south, and every river has a distinct
personality to it that you need to be aware of.
If you try to swim in a river that isn’t welcoming you are in trouble,
and if you try to swim against the current you will undoubtedly feel exhausted
and give up. Its our jobs each morning
to determine which ‘river’ we want to jump into, and make sure we pick the
correct time & location to dive in.
world***
European shares were steady but remained in negative territory ahead of the US
home sales due out in the NY morning. Markets
are still reeling from Germany’s contracting PMI and China’s lower
manufacturing data which came out during Thursday’s session.
Rumors that China PBoC could again cut its RR helps to sooth risk aversion
Spain vows to honor fiscal adjustment
–
Dealer chatter of selling of Greek PSI bonds, linked to absence of CDSs and
ability to manage risk
–
SNB reiterates pledge to defend EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000
–
France raises 2012 GDP outlook to +0.7% from 0.5% prior
Spain Fin Min De Guindos confirmed it has meet institutional investors in
Singapore. He reiterated the view of expecting a mild recession in the Euro
Zone during 2012. Spain’s govt was implementing reforms and consolidate its
banking sector. He stressed that Spain was totally committed to fiscal
adjustment and would concentrate tightening on the expenditure side. He
stressed that Spain needed an extra fiscal adjustment of over €35B in 2012 and
2013 period. Lastly he reiterated that Spain would not be the next Greece and
that such comparisons were nonsense
Spain was said to be planning to guarantee between €25-30B in bond issues by the
autonomous regions over the next two
years
SNB published its quarterly bulletin. The SNB reiterated that it would maintain
the EUR/CHF floor at 1.2000 with the ‘utmost determination’ and would purchase
currencies in ‘unlimited quantities’ if necessary. The SNB also reiterated that
it was prepared to take further measures at any time.
Swiss Mar KOF Institute released its quarterly economic forecast which raised
2012 GDP growth to +0.8% from its Dec view of +0.2%. The KOF did cut the
inflation forecast for both 2012 and 2013 period.
The recent spat of weak economic data provided another rumor of an imminent
China reserve ratio (RRR) cut which helped to stymie the recent risk aversion
flows. Sovereign names were also cited to be USD sellers as the session began.
The USD was softer against the major pairs as a result and hitting multi-week
lows against the EUR and CHF pairs. However, as the typical window for PBoC
action elapsed the European equity markets drifted off earlier highs and into
negative territory. The USD was off its worst levels as the NY morning
approached. The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.3260 level.
USD/JPY found support amid Japanese importer demand at 82.50 area after
Japanese PM Noda stated that the BoJ would continue to act when appropriate
Papers:
Citigroup expects the Irish economy will miss the official GDP forecast for
2012 of 1.3%. According to Citi, it is possible that the economy may contract
this year. The firm also suggests that Ireland’s tax revenues may miss official
forecasts.
The EU Commission paper recommends combining the EFSF and ESM resulting in
combined capacity of about €940B. Note the FT also reported that the EU
recommendation includes two scenarios that would see the firewall increased
temporarily to either €940B or €740B before going back to €500B. The debate of
whether or not to increase the firewall will be held in Copenhagen next week.
The regulator, European Securities and Markets, warned ratings agencies
Moody’s, S&P and Fitch to improve internal processes or face possible
enforcement.
morning we finish up the week on a Friday morning so right away we have a
simple goal today; get in early, be patient, and get out of the markets early
before Friday volume dips and we go into the weekend. Bottom line today is there will be windows of
trading opportunities off and on as the day develops and we need to be aware
that NOT every moment will be good for trading, so we will keep our eyes open,
our trading plan close, and an eye on the time looking for volume to slow down
after 1030am EST this morning.
begin with Friday news @ 10am EST this morning, so the beginning of the US
Morning Session will be a bit of a question mark. We know that the volume will come in earlier
than usual on a Friday so keep an eye out for this today.
10am EST today we will look for the market personality to shift after 1030am and
we have Ben Bernanke speaking at 145pm EST when we will have already finished
our trading day. It will be important
that we keep an eye on volume today in case
(US) World Bank nominations for its next President
–
7:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bonds
–
7:00 (CA) Canada Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v
2.5% prior; CPI Inex: No est v 120.7 prior
–
7:00 (CA) Canada Feb CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.1% prior
–
7:10 (UK) DMO to sell £5.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
–
7:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Mar 16th: No est v $294.0B prior
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7:45 (UK) Business Sec Cable
–
8:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Retail Sales M/M: 1.6%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.2%e v 6.7%
prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior
–
9:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Current Account: -$2.5Be v -$7.1B prior; Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI): $3.2Be v $5.4B prior
–
10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Unemployment Rate: 4.1%e v 4.9% prior
– 10:00 (US) Feb New
Home Sales: 325Ke v 321K prior
–
10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Global Economic Indicator: no est v 3.5% prior
– 11:00 (US) Fed to
purchase $1.75-2.25B in Notes
– 13:00 (US) USDA
Public meeting in Washington DC
–
13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds closing State Election Rally in
Saarland
–
13:30 (EU) ECB member Gonzalez-Paramo
– 13:45 (US) Fed
Chairman Bernanke gives opening remarks at Fed conference
– 14:30 (US) Fed’s
Lockhart speaks in Washington
–
15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v -1.5% prior; Y/Y:
2.1%e v 2.1% prior
–
15:00 (AR) Argentina Q4 Current Account: -$100Me v -$166M prior
– (US0) Republican
Louisiana Primary
–
(DE) German State Election in Saarland
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