October 20, 2011

Day Traders look for sub-400k Jobless Claims and Optimistic about Existing Home Sales

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The James’ Report:  Professional Resources for Professional Traders

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– The US Dollar index is trading in a very concerning area for price action this morning.  We know from experience that when the dollar index is trading in a price wedge around the BMT, and inside this reversal zone that we need to expect rather sloppy price action on the market we trade.  Use the Dollar index correlation to trade using the dollar index.

– Crude oil futures are trading at the lows of a bull price channel inside the range from Wednesday.  I want to buy the lows of this price channel while looking for clues to see if a break below the price channel will result in a sell-off down to major support and BMT at 83.96.  If price rises I’m buying pullback above 87.35 the high of the reversal zone.  If price continues higher I will take profit at the PHOD looking for selling opportunities at the highs of this range.  If price moves lower I will buy the price channel lows, the PLOD as support as well as the 85.31 below the PLOD looking for a fake-out breakout outside the range from Wednesday.  Keep an eye out for price moving below the PLOD and then failing to go lower, we will buy the break back ABOVE the PLOD trying to buy the price channel lows.  If we break the 85.31 look for the fake-out breakout first, but then selling retracement down to the next major support of 83.96 and then looking for buying opportunities at 83.96 through 83.36.

– euro currency futures are trading in the same location from earlier this week, inside the range from Wednesday, around the BMT, inside a price wedge, and inside the reversal zone using the price channel-break structure.  The most important aspect of today on the euro currency futures is the correlation with the us dollar index.  You can see a splitting image between the two charts, so we KNOW that without a breakout on the dollar index we will not expect one on the euro currency futures. If price rises I’m selling the highs of the range and the PHOD as resistance.   I am selling all the way up to 3925 and then I will consider buying pullback only after the fake-out breakout has been disqualified.  I can buy pullback above the PHOD however it will be higher risk, I want to sell as price rises today.  If price drops I will buy the PLOD and the support at 3645, trying to not to fall victim to the fake-out breakout below the PLOD.  I will sell retracement below 3645 after making sure the sellers in control and my final target for the short will be 3573 support, 3557 and then down into the ‘trigger zone’ from this 89range swing low to swing high (marked in orange)
– Gold futures trading off the lows of the bear price channel at the PLOD inside the range from Wednesday, and just above the major price wedge lows as support.  The most important factor on the gold futures this morning will be buying the price wedge lows at support 1607.9, 1605.8 and being careful not to sell into the price channel lows.  As price keeps moving lower I am waiting for that buying opportunity and not getting frustrated trying to sell the new lower-lows at the price channel lows.  If price moves higher above the 1632.0 we think the market will test the price channel highs so we can buy above 32.0 for a higher risk scalp trade up to the price channel highs where we will be looking to sell the highs of the price channel using the ‘reversal-zone’ lows of 1643.0.  as price rises above the price channel we are looking for selling opportunities all the way up to the 1669.9.  Look for the fake-out breakout above 66.9 and then buy pullback up to 78.2, take profit, look to sell 78.2 and then with new higher-highs buy another pullback up to 1690 area and the trend line resistance overhead.  Take profit at the trend lines around 1690.0 and then look to sell it back down again.

Russell futures are trading in the middle of the bear price channel and just above the lows of Wednesday trading range.  We want to sell the new lower-lows below the PLOD 688.9 and cover that short at the target of 676.8

If price moves higher and holds support at the PLOD we will then sell the price channel highs using the ‘reversal-zone’ as our entry guide. 

The Russell has moved above, then below the PLOD and now sits in the middle at the open.  this is a BIG clue telling us to beware lack of direction, and to look for fake-out breakouts at the new higher highs or lower lows.

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Around the Globe this morning:

–  Japan’s government will set up a task force with the BoJ to help deal with the JPY’s recent strength

– Europe’s grand plan to strengthen its banking system is set to fall well short of current market expectations

– EU lawyers rejected direct EFSF guarantees, and the EFSF talks are focusing on buying collateral for guarantees

– Greek Parliament votes on further austerity measures later today

– UK Retail sales beat expectations but coupled lower back-month revisions

 – EFSF draft documents circulates and helps some risk appetite ahead of the NY morning

– European shares headed lower and are trading in negative territory ahead of the Oct 23 summit. The much-awaited meeting of EU officials risks to disappoint, once again, investors who have placed great hopes on a solution.

– The British think tank he Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) issued a report which found that household spending declined to its worst reading ever. The IFS warned that situation is worse now than when the country came out of previous downturns, with family spending cut backs at “unprecedented” levels.

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Today’s Economic News:

Day Traders look for early-morning volume from Jobless Claims ahead of the US Open.  We begin our day with Jobless Claims at 830am EST.  traders will be looking for a report below 400,000 to get excited about this report.  We will then move through the 930am US Open then into the 1000am Existing Home Sales where higher readings coupled with strong jobs will really be a boost for the moral in the market this morning.  We also have the Philly Fed Survey which is great at moving crude oil futures around, so we will be looking for trading opportunities at 1000am EST.  After 1030am we will be looking for the reversal and dead zone, then looking for clues from volume and market personality to see when this morning will come to an end. 

We will wrap up our trading day with time to answer questions in our live webinar at 1130am EST.

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    schooloftrade

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