day traders look for manufacturing and industrial production to get crude oil futures moving this morning

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The James’ Report: Professional Resources for Professional Traders

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– Crude oil futures are trading with a very interesting price structure this morning, with a large GAP Up over the weekend, Bullish price channel, Price wedge and an outside day. The GAP over the weekend from the G20 Summit Reports has given this market a reason to get pulled back lower, and the bull price channel gives me a great opportunity to buy at the lows using our advanced price structures. Looking to buy the lows of this price channel, which is also the lows of the range from Friday.

– Dollar index is trading in a perfect ‘price channel break’ price structure which tells me that If the dollar index can break above the PHOD we will then have the direction confirmation from the dollar index moving back up into the price channel above us, which will be selling opportunities on the markets we trade, such as crude oil futures & euro currency futures. Also be prepared if the dollar index does NOT move at all this may be a sloppy sideways morning, so be patient to let this dollar index make new higher-highs or lower-lows and then look for the correlation to do the rest.

– euro currency futures are trading inside the range from last Friday, and using the dollar index correlation we have some strong clues for an easy plan of attack. I want to sell below the PLOD as the dollar index is making new higher-highs above its PHOD to confirm the dollar index moving higher and the euro currency futures moving lower. Sell the euro currency futures below PLOD as the sellers will then be in control with the target of 1.3500 area which is the ‘trigger zone’ off this move up off the lows of the 89range price channel. I’m selling with new lower-lows below the PLOD making sure not to get too aggressive until this dollar index starts to move with consistency. If the price moves higher than the PHOD we must consider this to be bullish, something has changed if we make it above the 1.3885 and then above the 1.3925 we then start buying pullback with more aggressive entries if the dollar index is now making new lower-lows instead of moving higher.

– we are selling off the highs of this bear price channel on the Mini-Russell Futures with the target at the price channel lows. We know if we make it to the price channel lows I am taking profit and then buying the price channel lows. If we make new lower-lows below the price channel I then will sell down to the target for the ab=cd pattern around 683.9, get price back down to the ‘C’.

The Russell is at the lows of the bull price channel so buy these lows in the zone below it. if we get short it will be higher risk at these lows for a short term scalp, and I want to be waiting for a 2-step prcie reversal off the PLOD or support in the ‘buy zone’

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Around the Globe this morning:

– (BE) Belgium-listed bank Dexia under performs, lower by more than 10% on the session

– (GE) Germany’s Commerzbank to test the market by selling unsecured notes due in 2013

– Euro/USD hits 1 month high, US dollar index moves to 1-month low on continued optimism that officials will resolve the EU banking/debt crisis.

– (NV) Philips Electronics [PHIA.NV] CEO said he was concerned that Europe is going into recession

– European shares rallied to the highest level since April following G20 meeting this weekend. – – – Banks rose among the optimism that the EU summit on October 23rd will bear fruits.

– The Portuguese press reported that the government of Portugal expects 2012 GDP to contract 2.5-3.0% compared to the 2.2% seen by the central bank. Earlier this month the central bank revised 2012 GDP forecasts to a contraction of 2.2% from its previous forecast of 1.8%.

– It is expected that the EU will release a €50 billion jobs plan on Wednesday, the 19th October. The plan is related to infrastructure jobs, including modernization of digital, energy and transport networks. It is anticipated that the plan will create hundreds of thousands of jobs in next couple of years. The EU Commission scheme sees use of bonds backed by the European Investment Bank (EIB) for funding gaps in governments, leverage up private investment.

– The Ernst Young ITEM Club lowered the UK 2011 GDP forecast to 0.9% compared to the 1.4% from three months ago. ITEM’s Spencer said the situation was worse than thought. The bright spots in the forecast three months ago, business investment and exports, have dimmed to a flicker. The unemployment figures really put the kibosh on the idea that the private sector will take up the slack from public-sector job losses. The economy has stalled at a dangerous junction and we need new measures to put growth back on track.

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Today’s Economic News:

Day Traders are looking at early morning manufacturing data out of the US to solidify the outlook of the recent economy.

830am Empire State Manufacturing Survey, followed by 915am Industrial production and the US Open at 930am EST get us started today. Both of these news events are great for crude oil futures so we will be watching them closely today.

Remember that today is Monday, so give this market time to warm up a little as traders get into their desks this week.