April 12, 2011

Crude Oil gave me a clear signal before it dropped, 200 ticks of profit

830am est
–          We’ve got the dollar moving down, and this SHOULD cause the markets to rise, but the speed and volume is still slow today
–          We know the dollar correlation will not work as effectively in low volume environments
845am est
–          We tried selling the highs on gold but the speed was so slow the buyers took over and pushed it back up
–          I then bought with that seller failure when we saw big buyers and got +5 and then -5 for a scratch
–          The speed then slows down on gold, telling us this market may be waking up, but not quite yet
–          We may be a little early for the best moves this morning
–          We see a short term bullish price channel on gold, so lets look to use this as our guide
850am est
–          Gold is now trading inside the range from Monday morning
–          We can now expect price to go up to test the 1472.6 which is the high of this previous sideways range
930am est
–          We’ve had a great morning so far using tape reading and the wave pattern to trade crude oil
–          Hit our daily goal of 30 ticks per contract before 930am, always good.
–          Now lets plan our attack for the rest of the morning.
–          Remember we have news @ 2pm today so we expect this morning session to end a little early, don’t expect the golden lunch
–          Look for the markets to slow down considerably after 1030 and before 1130am est today as traders wait for the 2pm est news
1000am est
–          We’ve had an incredible day on crude oil, waiting for new lower lows and then selling the retracement, taking profit at the next major level of support.
–          Now we see the 4range chart shows signs of consolidation, narrower price action, and we see this as a change in the personality
–          We’re using caution now b/c we know the 2pm news may be effecting price as of 1030am today
–          We saw a big drop on crude oil, and naturally we look for a big pop back up.
Lets plan our attack on crude oil:
–          We have a bearish price channel, so looking to sell as the higher % trade
–          If price falls
o   Buying 106.30 as support
o   Buying 106.00 as MAJOR support
o   If prices make new lower lows I’m selling retracements once the
o   support is broken and turns into resistance
–          if price rises:
o   higher risk selling the 107.54 b/c we’re now in the lows of the wedge, where we want to be buying
o   buying above 107.54, keeping an eye on the 34range trigger line at .55
o   I will sell the PLOD, and then buy PLOD if we make new highs above it

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