September 19, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Conflicting Price Structures…which do we use first? Another 100 ticks of Profit
Monday morning, my main objective is to get back into my daily routine.
10:30am Obama speaks today.
915am est
Crude Oil Futures show us 3 simple price structures:
– Price Wedge
– Major Support below
Price Wedge tells us to buy as price falls, and sell as price rises, and the outside day tells us to sell new lower lows with retracements.
As price falls im buying at major support (wedge), and then when we break that support, i then want to sell a retracement with new lower lows (outside Day).
These two price structures are a little conflicting when it comes to the personality we expect with them.
Outside day says BREAKOUTS….
Price Wedge says FAKE-OUTS….
We also see major support below us, which we will use as points for entry and profit targets.
945am est
Markets are sloppy this morning on ‘rebalancing Monday’ (Monday after Quadruple Witching). We have rollover, and markets are sleepy as they wake up on a Monday morning.
Russell Futures give us three price structures:
Bull Price Channel
Outside Day
Price Wedge
Price channel says to buy the lows of the channel, and buy the major support below the channel lows.
Outside day says to sell retracements with new lower lows, below the PLOD sellers are in charge.
Price Wedge tells me to buy as price falls, sell as price rises, and avoid the middle of the wedge. Buy the lows of the wedge, sell the highs of the wedge.
Avoid the middle of the wedge around 680.0 area.
1005am est
NAHB tells us that homebuilders are having the same problems with real estate in the us
– Nobody has a job
– Nobody can get financing for the homes
– Home value are stable, but outlook still is not optimistic
Euro Futures we have 3 price structure clues:
Price Wedge
Outside Day
Sideways Range
Price wedge says to buy the lows and sell the highs of the wedge. Avoid the middle of the wedge.
Wedge tells me to buy as price falls at major support.
Outside day tells me bias is to the short side and to sell with new lower lows, once we break through the major support.
Sideways range reminds me to buy the lows (support) and sell the highs (resistance), avoid the middle of the range.
1015am est
Market Personality is changing ahead of Obama and after 10am news.
We know today has been slow, and we know Obama might change the market direction, so stay patient.
1030am est
We are waiting for periods of consistent volume, and Obama isn’t making it any easier!
Looking to buy the lows / major support on crude oil, but price action is sluggish.
1115am est
Finally we got the chance to participate on crude oil, now lets stay patient and wait for 1130 European Close.
We have gold futures falling to new lows, and we want to sell retracements now on the GC 12-11
Questions for today…
Is it better to skip a marginal pattern/trade and wait for the perfect pattern/trade?
Yes!!!!!
– You are training your MIND to not be so FEARFUL when you enter a trade.
o If i take fewer stops, and I see consistent profit, I won’t be scared when i ONLY take those perfect patterns.
– Also conditions your patience and awareness of using your rules.
– You aren’t having to deal with the sloppy, overbought/oversold, personality when you take a PERFECT pattern.
Do we need the fundamentals (news, politics, etc) for short term intra-day trading.
NO!!!!
All i need to know is WHEN the news is going to be released, or if I dont know ahead of time, I need to keep my eyes open for when news comes unexpectedly.
Im NOT trading that news…im waiting for the news to come out, im reading tape, reading speed and momentum, and waiting for the market to give me a REACTION.
I then trade the reaction to that news.
Three stages to using news:
1. Rookie = know WHEN the news is out
2. Experienced = trade the reaction to the news
3. Professional = try and predict (team of analysts, and lots of experience)
– Red = both timeframes confirm short but not oversold
– Green = both timeframes confirm long but not overbought
– Watch the video on the blog
