May 5, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
How did I miss this sign from Crude Oil and Dollar Index?
830am est
– Jobless claims come out higher than expected
– The dollar index has broken to new highs out of its sideways range from the past week
– Lets watch and see if this poor jobs report brings that dollar back down, which will then push the prices back UP on gold and crude
– This may be a great beginning of a MASSIVE wedge.
– With the dollar moving higher we can use this as a guide to take selling opportunities as high %
– Look to sell while the dollar is rising, and I wont sell the lows, I will sell at resistance with a price reversal or a retracement.
845am est
– We’ve got the 830 news behind us, lets plan our attack on the markets we trade most
Crude Oil:
– We’re at the lows of the sideways range
– We have the previous day’s range above us
– PHOD and PLOD are above us
– Price Wedge above us
– Price channel in the dotted blue line (bearish) and we are at the lows
– Sideways range below us 106.00 down to 103.30
– My BMT is way above us
– The OPEN is above us
Our plan of attack will be as follows on crude oil:
– Buy the lows of this sideways range
– We want to see if price is going to fall to new lows, or if it will reverse and rise back up into the range above us
– If price falls:
o Im buying support first, then selling retracements with new lower lows
o Im buying support levels at 105.70, 105.50, 105.30, 105.00 is the low of the channel
o If we keep making new lows I will sell retracements, never selling the LOWS.
– If price rises:
o Im selling resistance first, then buying pullbacks, never buying the highs
o Im selling resistance at 107.00, 107.69,108.00 is the highs of the channel, and the PLOD at 108.43
– With that all said, we have to assume that with such a big drop and the PLOD above us, the price will TRY to rise back up.
– The DOLLAR index may rise today, making this impossible, but at least you know what we MAY see as a BIG MOVE TODAY.
905am est
– We are seeing very inconsistent price action at these lows on the crude oil
– This tells us the sellers are in charge and we should be open to selling more here
– Trying to buy has been tough, that’s a sign!!
913am est
– We’re learning more by the second this morning on crude oil
– We tried to buy the lows but the buyers were not there
– Then we tried to sell the retracements and the sellers were there, but the move went nowhere.
– Now we sit here wondering…who is in control?
– This goes right in line with our assumption this morning that crude oil was in a transitional area.
– Are we going to rise back up?
– Or will we be making new lows and headed to 103.00?
925am est
– The dollar index now starts making new lows, trying to go back into the range below us
– If the DX 06-11 contract drops, we need to be buying pullbacks on gold and crude oil today
– Lets watch the dollar and use this as our guide this morning for DIRECTION.
930am est
– We’re trying to pick up on clues from the crude oil market
– The 106.00 is the lows of the range above me, and the highs of the range below me
– If we rise above 106.00 I want to buy buying
– If we keep going lower than 106.00 I want to keep selling
– We are encouraged to sit on hands and wait until we see better direction.
– There is no ‘personality’ right now, we cant easily tell who is in control.
940am est
– We try to sell the retracement on crude after the open with further confirmation that today is going to be a challenge if we don’t wait for better price action.
– I can keep forcing these trades all day, and ill most likely end up giving it all back with some losses.
– The key today is waiting for the PERSONALITY to give us confidence.
– Don’t force trades just because you want to take a trade.
950am est
– The dollar pushes new highs
– We were wondering where the dollar was going to go….now we know.
– DX is rising, we now look for selling opportunities on the markets we trade most.
– We’re waiting for 10am news on crude oil to pass, and we look forward to HOPEFULLY seeing this news turn the corner on crude oil and get us moving consistently
1000am est
– While we wait for the 10am CAD news to come out we prep for the next moves on gold
– Gold Futures:
o Dropped to new lows below the wedge
o We are trading sideways range from 22.1 down to 92.0
o We want to buy the lows of this range or sell the highs of this range
o If we break above 22.1 I will sell the pink trend line resistance, which is the highs of the wedge above us.
o If price drops I need to beware trading around 94.8 the BMT
o If price breaks new lows I will sell retracements, I don’t sell the lows
