July 11, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Bear Price Channel all I needed for 250 ticks of profit Gold & Crude Oil
Signs of US and China are slowing down, causing the demand for crude oil to also slow down, which is causing the prices to drop this morning.
Gold Futures this morning continue to rise on fear of economic climate in Europe and the falling US Dollar Index.
The definition of High % trade =
– High % pattern
– High % time
– High % location
If we take High % Trades today we can expect high % results.
1. Show my clients/members the safest way to learn and earn in real time
2. Prove to my GUESTS this method really works.
830am est
Monday morning without any major news from the US.
Over the weekend we hear from China that things are slowing down and this is causing the US Dollar to rise, and crude oil demand to fall.
Crude oil is falling on the demand falling.
Gold is rising on fears from Europe, inflationary fears, as well as fear that Obama may raise/lower the debt-ceiling here in the US.
Obama speaks at 11am this morning and he may do nothing more than fan the flames of the fear in the markets.
Gold is rising on Fear today.
We review the dollar index this morning and we see the following:
– Strong Bull channel (long term)
– Bull Wedge (medium term)
– Bull Price Channel (short term)
The dollar long term trend is rising, the short term trend is rising, but we have the highs (resistance) from the top of the wedge to worry about.
How can we use this knowledge to make profit?
– If the dollar keeps rising (new highs) we will be selling retracements on crude oil.
– If the dollar trades sideways (no new highs/lows) we then will also trade sideways, selling the highs and buying the lows and avoiding the middles.
– If the dollar reverses and makes new lower lows we can then start buying pullbacks on crude oil and buying at support.
Gold is going to be a variable today. With the news chatter about FEAR and with OBAMA on the Mic today talking about debt, gold will have explosive tendencies today so keep an eye on the long side.
The dollar correlation breaks down when FEAR is everywhere in the market, and right now the US Dollar and Gold may be rising at the same time if fear out of China, Euro, etc keep building.
If I had to predict what was going to happen…
1 of 3 things will happen…
Dollar keep going through the roof of the wedge and we can keep selling off on crude oil, and keep buying pullbacks on gold.
Dollar may trade sloppy at the 76.600 and then we will see that on the tape and we will then start trading like an ‘inside day’ on gold and crude oil.
If the dollar falls off these highs of 76.600 we then can start buying crude oil, and gold will be the variable.
900am est
We review crude oil this morning and we see that price has fallen off recent highs last week and the highs of the price channel.
We now find ourselves in the middle of the long term bear channel, and a new short term bear channel has developed.
The short term bear channel, along with the fundamentals in today’s market tell us to keep looking to sell retracements as we make new lower lows.
The levels of support below us at 94.32, 93.80, 93.46, 92.80 will be excellent location to take profit and look for price reversals to get long for a short term intra-day trade.
Let’s use a 34range chart to plan our specific attack when trading crude oil today:
– Outside day (below the PLOD) tells us to sell retracements, and sell at resistance levels
– Bear Price channel says to keep selling as well
– Lack of demand says to keep selling as well.
If price falls:
– Im selling retracements with new lower lows
– Im buying at support for short term intra-day moves
– Longer term high % trades will be short this morning until something changes.
– Im buying at 94.32, 94.00, 93.80, 93.45, 93.07
– Buy the LOD if we can get down that far
– Im selling the break of 95.18, 95.00 and all of the levels mentioned above.
If price rises:
– Im looking for a short trade opportunity
– If we see the bear channel broken then I can start looking to buy pullbacks with more %
– Bear channel says to sell at resistance and sell at retracements.
– Im selling at 95.18, 95.67
– Avoiding trading around the OPEN95.70
– Selling 96.00, 96.09
– Avoid trading around BMT 96.39
– Sell Sunday’s HOD at 96.75
– Beware the high % trades will come on the short side with this bear price channel.
950am est
We took 2 trades this morning on crude oil. First trade came short using the bear price channel.
The sellers quickly failed and we then bought with a new higher highs using a final target of the 13r BMT.
Price went through the BMT up to the PLOD so this now becomes inside day.
We look to sell short below PLOD as a failure.
Selling below 95.70 but beware the OPEN is the same area, so look a little lower than .70
1030am est
We just took our biggest trade of the day, simply after selling the highs of the bear price channel, and the failure of the PLOD to move higher.
1115am est
Price slows down BIG TIME.
We now have no more sellers, our last short went nowhere, and now im going to look for buying pressure to now reverse off these lows.
1130am est
We have members-only training and the market personality is slowing down considerably to the point where we no longer feel confident knowing HOW controls price.
Now let’s take all your questions and wrap this day up!
