March 23, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Be very careful when you see this on futures markets
845am est
– We’re seeing the dollar testing the highs of what we expect to be a sideways range.
– Slow speed is a concern, but the average true range on the DX 06-11 contract is rising, and looks like it may give us some action today
900am est
– We have crude oil opening up sluggish and sloppy this morning
– Lets plan ahead and see where our trades will be on crude oil 05-11
– If price drops:
o Buy support levels first
o Then sell retracements if we break new lows
o Buy 105.01, bottom of the price channel
o Buy 104.85 (HR at OPEN), buy 104.38, 104.20, 104.00
o I will sell those levels with a retracement as soon as they become resistance
– If price rises:
o Im selling first, then buying a pullback when that resistance turns into support
o Selling the highs of the range at 105.57
o Selling 106.00
o 106.50 (Major resistance)
o Im also keeping my options open for buying the pullbacks if it makes new highs.
o Buy at support, sell at resistance
o What was support becomes resistance.
930am est
– We see the dollar index breaking new highs above 76.00, which tells us to look for selling opportunities on the markets we trade most.
– We can see a trend line overhead that will indeed provide resistance and cause the dollar to either…
o Pause and go sideways (everything else goes sideways)
o Reverse and turn around and drop (looking for buying opportunities at support)
o Break through and keep rising (selling opportunities at resistance, and this also confirms its STRENGTH)
– We have overbought momentum on the Dx 06-11 contract, so I do not expect this trend line to break
– With that said, lets look for selling opportunities while the dollar is rising, and then when the trend line holds we look for buying opportunities
1000am est
– Our patterns continue to work wonderfully, but the markets won’t give us enough room, or enough speed, or enough time to get into the pattern
– The hard part is that this time of year is the MOST important time to be following rules, yet this time of year almost requires that we bend our rules more often.
1015am est
– The dollar index got smacked back down at the 76.150 ressitance and we’re seeing a change in the direction on the crude and gold
– Lets wait for crude to get passed the 1030am news
– Gold just broke the highs of the range, but now seeing the dollar now dropping we look to buy at support, look for a wave on gold
1030AM EST
– News comes out mixed at 1030 for crude and the market picks up speed, but slops around the PHOD
– Lets look where we are and make educated decisions based on the BIG PICTURE
– We’re at the lows of the channel, buy the lows
– At the PHOD, buy this as support
– If we rise, I will sell the resistance of 105.94
– If we fall I will buy 105.00
– Beware trading around Big Round numbers
