98 Ticks Live Day Trading Options Expiration Futures Contracts

We had to work a little harder today to see our profit goals, but we learn a LOT about Options Expiration and Wacky Wednesday as well as what to do when you see a day like this in the future.

Did you see today coming? Did you know what characteristics to look for? Did you see Crude Oil screaming at us this morning at the open?

– Crude Oil futures are trading slow and sluggish at the open of the day

o We notice a breaker pattern setting up @ 825am today

 We need to > 5 mins to the news

o We have news @ 830am
o The momentum on BOTH fast and slower charts are oversold, and we’re looking for a short trade

 We want to see momentum overbought, and then curl and point down from the top

o The Pace of Tape < 100, its RED, and its slow

 Increasing speed, yellow and green pace of tape to tell us the market is moving faster

o At the low of day

 Selling the low of day is ok with us, but we need to see high level of speed on the pace of tape indicator.

o All of these signs from the market point to a high-risk trade

845am EST

– Crude Oil Futures are trading sideways

o Slow timeframe chart shows a tight sideways trading range from 77.30 down to 76.50

 We want to buy the lows of the range, and sell the highs of this range

o Fast timeframe shows us trading at the lows, but we see some decent movement in price, so we should be able to see some trades this morning

o We also notice that today’s trading range is 1/3 of the range from this time yesterday

 Narrow trading ranges = sideways price action, which means the following

• Look to buy the lows and sell the highs
• Take our profit and run! Tight stops and tight targets, take that profit and lock it up tight!
• Look for slower timeframes to give us the best opportunities

1045am EST

– All of our markets are VERY quiet, and it appears our concerns about lacking volume during the time from 1030-1130 is valid.

o No news
o People have already placed their larger orders for the day possibly
o So we’re waiting for something to get this market moving again!
o We call this the dead-zone, which is from 1030-1130, after the news, and before the beginning of lunch

 1130 is the European session close, so we get better volume after 1130
 But before 1130 we need to use patience.

Position / Swing Trades (21-Range Method)

Crude Oil Futures:

– 2-step short below 76.38, but we are concerned that the .50 area will be VERY tough to trade around

o Double-tops and bottoms
o Half big round number
o We’ve already seen low volume today, so expect these 2-tops and bottoms to be very tough to get confirmation for entry.
o We look for ½ of our profit @ 76.05 just above the big round number

 Take ¼ off @ 75.85
 Take final ¼ off @ 75.55
 The most important aspect of this will the entry when we get a little further below this .50 area, so look for the easy entry on a faster chart, such as a 13range, 8range, or 4range for the best way to enter this trade.

– Gold Futures are looking to continue to the short side after we successfully sold short on the gold futures yesterday, and that trade was posted on the blog!

o Looking for this short below 1205.0 because our Fibonacci tool shows support @ 4.9, so look for entry once we break that 4.9

 Take our first target at the first major swing low @ 1203.0 for ½ our profit
 We look for ¼ off @ 1200.5, just above this big round number

• Expect the 1200 area to be VERY choppy, so you may need to wait for the final target to get filled, which is down to 98.0, just above the LOD from previous trading sessions.

o We also now have the opportunity for the breaker long on the Gold above 18.8

 We didn’t expect to see this big of a change in direction, but we’ll take whatever the market gives us.

• Entry long above 18.8 for a breaker pattern
• Take ½ of your profit at the first target 22.4
• ¼ off @ 27.5, and final ¼ off @ 32.0