February 3, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Day Trading Gold and Crude Oil with Jobless Claims
815am est
– The dollar index is trading sideways this morning
– We are at the highs of this range so we look for the dollar to do 1 of 3 things
o Make new highs, look for selling opportunities
o Bounce off the highs and drop down, looking for buying opportunities
o Goes sideways, so sell the highs and buy the lows of the sideways ranges on other markets.
– Speed is slow, but increasing at 820am
– THE AVERAGE TRUE range on the dollar is quite concerning.
– We have lower lows which tells us the bad times are REALLY bad and we see lower highs, which tells us the good times really aren’t that great.
– This can change with the 830am news, but this is where we are at the moment.
– Lets wait patiently for rising ATR, rising speed, and a moving dollar.
830am est
– We have jobless claims out as expected, so this will likely NOT be the market mover this morning
– Productivity came in higher and costs come out much lower than expected.
– How do we trade this? We watch the dollar for its reaction.
– Dollar rises after the news @ 830am, so we look to sell short on the markets we’re trading.
– The euro is dropping, which explains the dollar and the gold rising
– Money leaving the euro and entering the USD and the GC
– The gold/dollar correlation is going to be backwards with the euro selling off
– The FEAR FACTOR in gold is what does this.
900am est
– Gold at the highs of the price wedge, we want to sell the highs first, and then look to buy a pullback if we make new highs
930am est
– The market open to very slow and sluggish price action
– We’ve taken 6 trades today after the 830am news
– 1 loss, and 5 winners, having a good day so far, but its time to buckle down, follow the rules and KEEP this profit.
– The crude oil market has a very narrow wedge pattern with lots of trend lines as support and resistance, so the best option on CL 03-11 is to wait for wide open spaces to trade with.
– The euro is dropping, which is causing the gold and the dollar to rise, this is confusing for us day traders and leads to a little less confidence with the dollar correlation.
945am est
– We continue to see signs of a weak market
– We take the 21r wave long on the gold futures and we lots of big buyers but the moves are still weak.
1100am est
– We’ve been VERY busy all day today with lots of patterns
– We’ve had a loss, a few scratches, but overall a great day
– Now we see the market slowing down ahead of lunch
– We have Bernanke speaking @ 1230pm today
– We have nonfarm payrolls on Friday @ 830am est
– So we are expecting this market to slow down a little earlier than normal today
– We are in the middle of the price wedge on the 34range chart for gold futures, so slow speed and in the middle = stay away
1130am est
– We finish our day on the crude oil with another fast track winner buying the lows on the 13range chart
– Now with the volume very slow and sluggish and the euro close @ 1130am we need to see more volume for us to keep trading.
