February 16, 2011
Wacky Wednesday Day Trading Crude Oil Gold Euro and Russell Futures
Click Here To Review Our Automated Trading Strategy Results from This Morning.
830am est
– Housing starts came out higher than expected (usd bullish)
– Producer Price Index came out flat, as expected at .8% (USD neutral)
– Anything not negative for the PPI right now could be consider USD-bullish
– The dollar tests the highs of the sideways range after the news
– We expect the dollar to drop off these highs, especially with the slow speed of the market so far this morning.
– With the dollar dropping, we look for buying opportunities at support on the markets we trade.
– We also draw a trend line down from the recent swing highs and see additional resistance just below 78.830 on the dollar
– This gives us two big reasons to be patient and wait for the dollar to drop off the highs, giving us chances to buy the markets we trade most.
– Remember to always buy at support.
– If the dollar can somehow push above 78.830 we then need to look for selling opportunities as the dollar continues to rise.
– High % = expect the dollar to fall
– Lower % = dollar pushes new highs
– The dollar makes new highs on the average true range, this tells us to expect good things today
900am est
– The dollar begins to drop off the highs, as expected
– We’re looking for buying opportunities at support on crude and gold
915am est
– We took our first day trade on crude oil, but didn’t have much room for the trade to run, so it was taken as HIGH RISK
– The market on crude oil is showing very inconsistent speed
– May be a good idea to look for ONLY the best patterns today, no higher risk stuff until we see this market improve.
– We see lower than expected industrial production which means our manufacturing sector is making less products.
– Now lets use this news with the crude oil inventories
931am est
– The markets open with the dollar still dropping off the highs
– Lets stay patient and not let this tough market get us over trading or let our emotions trade for us.
1000am est
– We see the wave short on the 13range gold
– We cant take the trade b/c of 4 reasons
o Trend line support on the 34range (buy the lows)
o Very slow speed
o Momentum is GREEN right now (buyers only)
o Not enough room for the trade to run (13range BMT line in our way)
1030AM est
– Crude oil inventories come out lower than expected
– Lower inventories = ?
– Industrial production was lower than expected today, this lower inventories may be due to lack of demand, resulting in less production, results in less inventory
– Now, we need to wait for the markets’ reaction
– The typical response to lower inventories is higher prices b/c of assumed demand.
1050am est
– We continue to see this market slow down tremendously
– We sold the highs on crude oil after reading into the lower inventories number @ 1030am
– We now see crude oil sitting in the middle of the range, we can assume the buyers and sellers are trying to figure out WHO has control
– The rookies bought the price up when the news came out, but the professionals read the news and saw price should not be rising, so we looked for the short instead.
– Now the markets are sitting quietly, and the day is starting to come to an end.
– 1130am EST is the European close, this will be the next add of volume we see.
1100AM est
– Crude oil has been a nightmare today, making wacky Wednesday extra WACKY
– Today we expected to see more volume with the wed before the OPEX on Friday
– That never happened
– The crude oil is resting in the middle of the range, so we will stay away from crude oil until we see price move to the highs or the lows again.
Click Here To Review Our Automated Trading Strategy Results from This Morning.
